Model study
Backtest studies
Same transparent scoring used on live cards, applied to past Sha Tin and Happy Valley meetings with official results. Newest study first.
Analytical backtest for entertainment / education only — not betting advice. The market signal differs by study: 6/9/13 Sep use starting-price (SP) win odds only (走勢盤 neutral); 16 and 23 Sep also use our own stored pre-race WIN snapshots. See each study's "Pre-race vs SP" note. Historical 近績 enriched from HKJC horse profile pages. Any ROI figures are hypothetical.
Live site primary is hybridV2 (stronger 走勢盤, HV draw boost, demote drifting hot fav). Hybrid V1 retained on race pages for A/B. Compare presets below on the same sample.
走勢盤 is neutral where only SP exists; studies with stored snapshots use morning open → last pre-jump snapshot.
19 Oct 2026 Sha Tin (11 races) — pre-race snapshots vs results
Single-meeting backtest. Morning brief = form-only hybrid published before pools opened (no odds). hybridV2 / hybrid (V1) re-scored with the last stored WIN snapshot before each race's post time (open = morning snapshot for 走勢盤). Favourite baselines use the last pre-race snapshot and the official SP. ROI rows are hypothetical flat HK$10 stakes using official dividends.
Odds mode: last pre-jump WIN snapshot (hybrid presets); SP & morning-open as sensitivity
Preset comparison (pre-race snapshot odds + form)
Same 11 races: morning brief (no odds), hybrid V2 / V1 at the last pre-jump snapshot, and favourite baselines (last snapshot and SP).
| Preset | Win — top pick | Win — in top 3 picks | Top pick placed | Any top-3 pick placed |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morning brief (form only, no odds) | 3/11 (27.3%) | 5/11 (45.5%) | 7/11 (63.6%) | 10/11 (90.9%) |
| Hybrid V2 @ last pre-jump snapshotLive | 3/11 (27.3%) | 5/11 (45.5%) | 5/11 (45.5%) | 9/11 (81.8%) |
| Hybrid V1 @ last pre-jump snapshot | 3/11 (27.3%) | 4/11 (36.4%) | 4/11 (36.4%) | 9/11 (81.8%) |
| Hybrid V3 (shadow, real J/T point-in-time) @ last pre-jump snapshot | 3/11 (27.3%) | 5/11 (45.5%) | 5/11 (45.5%) | 10/11 (90.9%) |
| v2 form + pace @ last pre-jump snapshot | 1/11 (9.1%) | 4/11 (36.4%) | 4/11 (36.4%) | 9/11 (81.8%) |
| Market-lean @ last pre-jump snapshot | 3/11 (27.3%) | 6/11 (54.5%) | 6/11 (54.5%) | 8/11 (72.7%) |
| Favourite — last pre-jump snapshot | 2/2 (100.0%) | 2/2 (100.0%) | 2/2 (100.0%) | 2/2 (100.0%) |
| Favourite — official SP | 3/11 (27.3%) | 6/11 (54.5%) | 6/11 (54.5%) | 10/11 (90.9%) |
Pre-race vs SP
Pre-race: stored snapshots (morning open + last snapshot before each post time); SP from official results
Odds-source sensitivity (hybrid presets)
| Odds source | Win — top pick | Win — in top 3 picks | Top pick placed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hybrid V2 · Last pre-race snap | 3/11 (27.3%) | 5/11 (45.5%) | 5/11 (45.5%) |
| Hybrid V2 · Morning / open | 3/11 (27.3%) | 5/11 (45.5%) | 7/11 (63.6%) |
| Hybrid V2 · SP (results) | 2/11 (18.2%) | 5/11 (45.5%) | 7/11 (63.6%) |
| Hybrid V1 · Last pre-race snap | 3/11 (27.3%) | 4/11 (36.4%) | 4/11 (36.4%) |
| Hybrid V1 · Morning / open | 3/11 (27.3%) | 5/11 (45.5%) | 7/11 (63.6%) |
| Hybrid V1 · SP (results) | 2/11 (18.2%) | 5/11 (45.5%) | 7/11 (63.6%) |
Per race: winner vs each preset's top pick
WIN = top pick won; PL = top pick placed (1st–3rd); ✗ = unplaced. Odds shown are those the preset used (morning brief had none).
| R | Winner (SP) | 1-2-3 | Morning brief | Hybrid V1 | Hybrid V2 | Hybrid V3 (shadow) | Fav (last snap) | Fav (SP) | Last snap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R1 12:30 | #6 I EXCELLE (5.1) | 6-11-13 | #1STAR BROSE✗ | #8FORTUNE KINGO✗ | #8FORTUNE KINGO✗ | #2GOLDEN FORTUNE✗ | — | #1STAR BROSE✗ @ 4.1 | — |
| R2 13:00 | #7 SHANNON GLOW (34) | 7-2-5 | #8GHORGAN✗ | #10INVICTUS✗ | #10INVICTUS✗ | #10INVICTUS✗ | — | #8GHORGAN✗ @ 2.3 | — |
| R3 13:30 | #13 GOOD GOOD (102) | 13-2-5 | #9LUCKY YEAR✗ | #9LUCKY YEAR✗ | #2VICTOR SUPREMEPL | #3DOUBLE WIN✗ | — | #9LUCKY YEAR✗ @ 3.3 | — |
| R4 14:00 | #14 STAR SATYR (9.3) | 14-11-4 | #4CALIFORNIA WAVESPL | #10DRAGON GENERATION✗ | #10DRAGON GENERATION✗ | #7NOT USUAL DOUBLE✗ | — | #4CALIFORNIA WAVESPL @ 3 | — |
| R5 14:30 | #8 GUTSY BRAVO (5.2) | 8-10-12 | #12CIRRUS SPEEDPL | #2WOLF COMING✗ | #2WOLF COMING✗ | #2WOLF COMING✗ | — | #12CIRRUS SPEEDPL @ 2.2 | — |
| R6 15:00 | #12 SUPREME VOYAGER (9.5) | 12-5-10 | #10SUNNY QPL | #10SUNNY QPL | #10SUNNY QPL | #10SUNNY QPL | — | #8ZOUPER FELLOW✗ @ 4.6 | — |
| R7 15:35 | #4 ACE EAGLE (2.2) | 4-7-3 | #4ACE EAGLEWIN | #4ACE EAGLEWIN | #4ACE EAGLEWIN | #4ACE EAGLEWIN | — | #4ACE EAGLEWIN @ 2.2 | — |
| R8 16:05 | #7 LIGHT YEARS CHARM (8.8) | 7-6-2 | #10SKY JEWELLERY✗ | #10SKY JEWELLERY✗ | #10SKY JEWELLERY✗ | #2MY WISHPL | — | #10SKY JEWELLERY✗ @ 2.5 | — |
| R9 16:40 | #6 GRAND EAGLE (9.3) | 6-1-8 | #8GLORYSPEEDPL | #10HAPPY SHOOTER✗ | #10HAPPY SHOOTER✗ | #10HAPPY SHOOTER✗ | — | #1MR INCREDIBLEPL @ 3 | — |
| R10 17:15 | #1 PACKING FIGHTER (1.9) | 1-11-5 | #1PACKING FIGHTERWIN | #1PACKING FIGHTERWIN @ 2.1 | #1PACKING FIGHTERWIN @ 2.1 | #1PACKING FIGHTERWIN @ 2.1 | #1PACKING FIGHTERWIN @ 2.1 | #1PACKING FIGHTERWIN @ 1.9 | 16:51 (24m pre) |
| R11 17:50 | #8 BABY SAKURA (3) | 8-13-7 | #8BABY SAKURAWIN | #8BABY SAKURAWIN @ 3.7 | #8BABY SAKURAWIN @ 3.7 | #8BABY SAKURAWIN @ 3.7 | #8BABY SAKURAWIN @ 3.7 | #8BABY SAKURAWIN @ 3 | 16:51 (59m pre) |
Per preset: place & exotic hits
Top1 = model's #1 combination; in3 = actual combination within the model's first three. Top-3 placed = how many of the three picks per race finished 1st–3rd (out of races × 3).
| Preset | Win top1 | Winner in top3 | Top1 placed | Top-3 placed | QIN 1/3 | FCT 1/3 | TCE 1/3 | F4 1/3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morning brief (form only, no odds) | 3/11 (27.3%) | 5/11 (45.5%) | 7/11 (63.6%) | 16/33 (48.5%) | 1/11 / 1/11 | 1/11 / 1/11 | 0/11 / 0/11 | 0/11 / 0/11 |
| Hybrid V2 @ last pre-jump snapshot | 3/11 (27.3%) | 5/11 (45.5%) | 5/11 (45.5%) | 14/33 (42.4%) | 1/11 / 1/11 | 1/11 / 1/11 | 0/11 / 0/11 | 0/11 / 0/11 |
| Hybrid V1 @ last pre-jump snapshot | 3/11 (27.3%) | 4/11 (36.4%) | 4/11 (36.4%) | 13/33 (39.4%) | 1/11 / 1/11 | 1/11 / 1/11 | 0/11 / 0/11 | 0/11 / 0/11 |
| Hybrid V3 (shadow, real J/T point-in-time) @ last pre-jump snapshot | 3/11 (27.3%) | 5/11 (45.5%) | 5/11 (45.5%) | 16/33 (48.5%) | 1/11 / 1/11 | 1/11 / 1/11 | 0/11 / 0/11 | 0/11 / 0/11 |
| Favourite — last pre-jump snapshot | 2/2 (100.0%) | 2/2 (100.0%) | 2/2 (100.0%) | 3/6 (50.0%) | 1/2 / 1/2 | 1/2 / 1/2 | 0/2 / 0/2 | 0/2 / 0/2 |
| Favourite — official SP | 3/11 (27.3%) | 6/11 (54.5%) | 6/11 (54.5%) | 15/33 (45.5%) | 1/11 / 1/11 | 1/11 / 1/11 | 0/11 / 0/11 | 0/11 / 0/11 |
| Market-lean @ last pre-jump snapshot | 3/11 (27.3%) | 6/11 (54.5%) | 6/11 (54.5%) | 12/33 (36.4%) | 1/11 / 2/11 | 1/11 / 1/11 | 0/11 / 0/11 | 1/11 / 1/11 |
| v2 form + pace @ last pre-jump snapshot | 1/11 (9.1%) | 4/11 (36.4%) | 4/11 (36.4%) | 12/33 (36.4%) | 1/11 / 1/11 | 0/11 / 1/11 | 0/11 / 0/11 | 0/11 / 0/11 |
Hypothetical return — flat HK$10 on each top pick
Purely hypothetical, using official HKJC dividends per HK$10. Not betting advice and not indicative of future results. One meeting is a tiny, high-variance sample.
| Preset | Staked | Win return | Win ROI | Place return | Place ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morning brief (form only, no odds) | $110 | $71 | -35.5% | $97 | -11.8% |
| Hybrid V2 @ last pre-jump snapshot | $110 | $71 | -35.5% | $72.5 | -34.1% |
| Hybrid V1 @ last pre-jump snapshot | $110 | $71 | -35.5% | $56.5 | -48.6% |
| Hybrid V3 (shadow, real J/T point-in-time) @ last pre-jump snapshot | $110 | $71 | -35.5% | $70 | -36.4% |
| Favourite — last pre-jump snapshot | $20 | $49 | 145% | $25.5 | 27.5% |
| Favourite — official SP | $110 | $71 | -35.5% | $77.5 | -29.5% |
| Market-lean @ last pre-jump snapshot | $110 | $100 | -9.1% | $87.5 | -20.5% |
| v2 form + pace @ last pre-jump snapshot | $110 | $22 | -80% | $58.5 | -46.8% |
走勢盤 study (stored snapshots only)
open = morning snapshot (~09:19 HKT); lastPre = latest stored snapshot before post time; anyTime = lowest odds in any stored pre-post snapshot; SP = official results Win Odds (SP-basis is hindsight — not knowable before the jump)
| Group | Runners | Win rate | Place rate | Hyp. win return ($10 each) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All runners with a morning price | 142 | 11/142 (7.7%) | 33/142 (23.2%) | $1919 / $1420 |
| Shortened ≥25% (open → last pre-jump snapshot) | 0 | 0/0 (0.0%) | 0/0 (0.0%) | $0 / $0 |
| Shortened ≥25% at any stored pre-race snapshot | 0 | 0/0 (0.0%) | 0/0 (0.0%) | $0 / $0 |
| Steady (neither) | 27 | 2/27 (7.4%) | 6/27 (22.2%) | $49 / $270 |
| Drifted ≥50% (open → last pre-jump snapshot) | 0 | 0/0 (0.0%) | 0/0 (0.0%) | $0 / $0 |
| Shortened ≥25% open → SP (hindsight) | 4 | 0/4 (0.0%) | 1/4 (25.0%) | $0 / $40 |
| Drifted ≥50% open → SP (hindsight) | 9 | 0/9 (0.0%) | 0/9 (0.0%) | $0 / $90 |
Open → last pre-jump snapshot: shortened ≥25%
None
Shortened ≥25% at any stored pre-race snapshot (by low)
None
Open → SP: shortened ≥25% (hindsight)
| R / No. | Horse | Open | Low (pre) | Last pre | SP | Move | Finish |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R11 #13 | NYX GLUCK 嵐臣 | 6 | 6 16:51 | 6 | 3.1 | -48% | 2 |
| R11 #5 | ENDUED 安都 | 25 | 25 16:51 | 25 | 15 | -40% | 9 |
| R10 #7 | JOYFUL JOY 喜悅歡欣 | 6.2 | 6.2 16:51 | 6.2 | 4.5 | -27% | 4 |
| R11 #6 | AEROINVINCIBLE 友瑩仁 | 15 | 15 16:51 | 15 | 11 | -27% | 4 |
Late moves after the last stored snapshot (SP ÷ last pre ≤0.75 or ≥1.5)
| R / No. | Horse | Open | Low (pre) | Last pre | SP | SP vs pre | Finish |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R11 #13 | NYX GLUCK 嵐臣 | 6 | 6 16:51 | 6 | 3.1 | -48% | 2 |
| R11 #5 | ENDUED 安都 | 25 | 25 16:51 | 25 | 15 | -40% | 9 |
| R10 #7 | JOYFUL JOY 喜悅歡欣 | 6.2 | 6.2 16:51 | 6.2 | 4.5 | -27% | 4 |
| R11 #6 | AEROINVINCIBLE 友瑩仁 | 15 | 15 16:51 | 15 | 11 | -27% | 4 |
| R10 #9 | SONIC LINER 縱橫天地 | 86 | 86 16:51 | 86 | 130 | 51% | 11 |
| R10 #6 | SO NAIVE 開心福駒 | 83 | 83 16:51 | 83 | 128 | 54% | 12 |
| R10 #12 | NATURAL NUMBERS 天然數字 | 9.5 | 9.5 16:51 | 9.5 | 15 | 58% | 5 |
| R10 #10 | PRIME SUCCESS 龍城上將 | 76 | 76 16:51 | 76 | 123 | 62% | 14 |
| R11 #9 | GENEVA 增強 | 11 | 11 16:51 | 11 | 18 | 64% | 12 |
| R11 #4 | EMBLAZON 會當凌 | 46 | 46 16:51 | 46 | 77 | 67% | 13 |
| R10 #4 | MISTER DAPPER 英駿飛駒 | 25 | 25 16:51 | 25 | 43 | 72% | 9 |
| R11 #14 | KING OF FIGHTERS 佛亮老撾 | 50 | 50 16:51 | 50 | 87 | 74% | 11 |
| R10 #2 | SMART AVENUE 榮駿大道 | 38 | 38 16:51 | 38 | 79 | 108% | 13 |
Open → last pre-jump snapshot: drifted ≥50%
None
Data gaps
- R1: no stored snapshot before post time — hybrid presets used neutral odds
- R1: no last pre-jump snapshot odds for #6, #11, #13, #4, #1, #8, #2, #3, #9, #12, #7, #5, #10 (scored with neutral odds)
- R2: no stored snapshot before post time — hybrid presets used neutral odds
- R2: no last pre-jump snapshot odds for #7, #2, #5, #6, #11, #10, #12, #9, #14, #8, #13, #3, #4, #1 (scored with neutral odds)
- R3: no stored snapshot before post time — hybrid presets used neutral odds
- R3: no last pre-jump snapshot odds for #13, #2, #5, #12, #1, #6, #14, #10, #9, #11, #3, #8, #4, #7 (scored with neutral odds)
- R4: no stored snapshot before post time — hybrid presets used neutral odds
- R4: no last pre-jump snapshot odds for #14, #11, #4, #6, #7, #3, #12, #13, #8, #9, #10, #1, #5, #2 (scored with neutral odds)
- R5: no stored snapshot before post time — hybrid presets used neutral odds
- R5: no last pre-jump snapshot odds for #8, #10, #12, #9, #11, #7, #6, #2, #4, #5, #3, #1 (scored with neutral odds)
- R6: no stored snapshot before post time — hybrid presets used neutral odds
- R6: no last pre-jump snapshot odds for #12, #5, #10, #3, #13, #1, #6, #9, #14, #4, #8, #11, #7, #2 (scored with neutral odds)
- R7: no stored snapshot before post time — hybrid presets used neutral odds
- R7: no last pre-jump snapshot odds for #4, #7, #3, #1, #8, #11, #9, #6, #12, #2, #10, #5 (scored with neutral odds)
- R8: no stored snapshot before post time — hybrid presets used neutral odds
- R8: no last pre-jump snapshot odds for #7, #6, #2, #10, #5, #3, #9, #12, #8, #11, #1 (scored with neutral odds)
- R9: no stored snapshot before post time — hybrid presets used neutral odds
- R9: no last pre-jump snapshot odds for #6, #1, #8, #12, #10, #3, #5, #11, #9, #4, #2 (scored with neutral odds)
- R10: last stored pre-jump snapshot was 24 min before post (16:51 HKT) — late market moves not captured
- R11: last stored pre-jump snapshot was 59 min before post (16:51 HKT) — late market moves not captured
Summary metrics
Detailed exotic metrics below are for the hybridV2 (live primary) preset when available, else hybrid V1.
Win — top pick
3/11 (27.3%)
Win — in top 3 picks
5/11 (45.5%)
Top pick placed
5/11 (45.5%)
Any top-3 pick placed
9/11 (81.8%)
Favourite won (SP)
3/11 (27.3%)
Quinella top 1
1/11 (9.1%)
Quinella in top 3
1/11 (9.1%)
Forecast top 1
1/11 (9.1%)
Forecast in top 3
1/11 (9.1%)
Tierce top 1
0/11 (0.0%)
Tierce in top 3
0/11 (0.0%)
First 4 top 1
0/11 (0.0%)
First 4 in top 3
0/11 (0.0%)
By meeting
2026-10-19 · Sha Tin
11 races
- Win — top pick: 3/11 (27.3%)
- Win — in top 3 picks: 5/11 (45.5%)
- Top pick placed: 5/11 (45.5%)
- Favourite won (SP): 3/11 (27.3%)
Per-race results
| Date | Venue | R | Race | Actual | Model top 3 | Hybrid vs actual | Hits | QIN / FCT / TCE / F4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-19 | Sha Tin | 1 | SHEK MUN HANDICAP | 6-11-13 | 8 FORTUNE KINGO 8.5%1 STAR BROSE 8.4%6 I EXCELLE 8.3% | 8-1-6 vs 6-11-13 W1W3Pl | W1W3PlQINFCTTCEF4 | QIN 1-8 vs 6-11 FCT 8-1 vs 6-11 TCE 8-1-6 vs 6-11-13 F4 1-6-8-13 vs 4-6-11-13 |
| 2026-10-19 | Sha Tin | 2 | SUN CHUI HANDICAP | 7-2-5 | 10 INVICTUS 8.1%12 TRENDY RUSH 7.7%8 GHORGAN 7.7% | 10-12-8 vs 7-2-5 W1W3Pl | W1W3PlQINFCTTCEF4 | QIN 10-12 vs 2-7 FCT 10-12 vs 7-2 TCE 10-12-8 vs 7-2-5 F4 8-9-10-12 vs 2-5-6-7 |
| 2026-10-19 | Sha Tin | 3 | CHUN SHEK HANDICAP | 13-2-5 | 2 VICTOR SUPREME 7.8%9 LUCKY YEAR 7.8%3 DOUBLE WIN 7.7% | 9-2-3 vs 13-2-5 W1W3Pl | W1W3PlQINFCTTCEF4 | QIN 2-9 vs 2-13 FCT 2-9 vs 13-2 TCE 2-9-3 vs 13-2-5 F4 2-3-5-9 vs 2-5-12-13 |
| 2026-10-19 | Sha Tin | 4 | SUN CHUI HANDICAP | 14-11-4 | 10 DRAGON GENERATION 7.8%7 NOT USUAL DOUBLE 7.7%13 LAKESHORE HERO 7.6% | 10-7-13 vs 14-11-4 W1W3Pl | W1W3PlQINFCTTCEF4 | QIN 7-10 vs 11-14 FCT 10-7 vs 14-11 TCE 10-7-13 vs 14-11-4 F4 7-10-12-13 vs 4-6-11-14 |
| 2026-10-19 | Sha Tin | 5 | LUNG HANG HANDICAP | 8-10-12 | 2 WOLF COMING 9.0%10 NAVAS G 8.9%12 CIRRUS SPEED 8.9% | 2-10-12 vs 8-10-12 W1W3Pl | W1W3PlQINFCTTCEF4 | QIN 2-10 vs 8-10 FCT 2-10 vs 8-10 TCE 2-10-12 vs 8-10-12 F4 2-10-11-12 vs 8-9-10-12 |
| 2026-10-19 | Sha Tin | 6 | SUN TIN WAI HANDICAP | 12-5-10 | 10 SUNNY Q 8.3%1 ARGENTO OCEAN 7.7%3 RUBY THRIVE 7.6% | 10-1-3 vs 12-5-10 W1W3Pl | W1W3PlQINFCTTCEF4 | QIN 1-10 vs 5-12 FCT 10-1 vs 12-5 TCE 10-1-3 vs 12-5-10 F4 1-3-10-11 vs 3-5-10-12 |
| 2026-10-19 | Sha Tin | 7 | LUNG HANG HANDICAP | 4-7-3 | 4 ACE EAGLE 9.5%11 STAR FIGURE 9.1%3 SOLID CAR 8.8% | 4-11-3 vs 4-7-3 W1W3Pl | W1W3PlQINFCTTCEF4 | QIN 4-11 vs 4-7 FCT 4-11 vs 4-7 TCE 4-11-3 vs 4-7-3 F4 3-4-10-11 vs 1-3-4-7 |
| 2026-10-19 | Sha Tin | 8 | THE SHA TIN TROPHY (HANDICAP) | 7-6-2 | 10 SKY JEWELLERY 10.1%2 MY WISH 9.6%7 LIGHT YEARS CHARM 9.5% | 10-2-5 vs 7-6-2 W1W3Pl | W1W3PlQINFCTTCEF4 | QIN 2-10 vs 6-7 FCT 10-2 vs 7-6 TCE 10-2-7 vs 7-6-2 F4 2-5-7-10 vs 2-6-7-10 |
| 2026-10-19 | Sha Tin | 9 | LEK YUEN HANDICAP | 6-1-8 | 10 HAPPY SHOOTER 10.3%8 GLORYSPEED 10.3%1 MR INCREDIBLE 9.7% | 10-8-1 vs 6-1-8 W1W3Pl | W1W3PlQINFCTTCEF4 | QIN 8-10 vs 1-6 FCT 10-8 vs 6-1 TCE 10-8-1 vs 6-1-8 F4 1-8-10-11 vs 1-6-8-12 |
| 2026-10-19 | Sha Tin | 10 | SHA KOK HANDICAP | 1-11-5 | 1 PACKING FIGHTER 9.7%7 JOYFUL JOY 8.8%14 MASTER LUCKY 8.6% | 1-7-14 vs 1-11-5 W1W3Pl | W1W3PlQINFCTTCEF4 | QIN 1-7 vs 1-11 FCT 1-7 vs 1-11 TCE 1-7-14 vs 1-11-5 F4 1-7-13-14 vs 1-5-7-11 |
| 2026-10-19 | Sha Tin | 11 | WO CHE HANDICAP | 8-13-7 | 8 BABY SAKURA 9.7%13 NYX GLUCK 9.2%9 GENEVA 8.2% | 8-13-9 vs 8-13-7 W1W3Pl | W1W3PlQINFCTTCEF4 | QIN 8-13 vs 8-13 FCT 8-13 vs 8-13 TCE 8-13-9 vs 8-13-7 F4 6-8-9-13 vs 6-7-8-13 |
- Analysis only — not betting advice. Hypothetical ROI uses official HKJC dividends per HK$10.
- Official results: racing.hkjc.com LocalResults (EN + 繁中); fetched 2026-10-20T06:56:13.411Z.
- Last pre-jump snapshot per race: R1 none (?m pre-post); R2 none (?m pre-post); R3 none (?m pre-post); R4 none (?m pre-post); R5 none (?m pre-post); R6 none (?m pre-post); R7 none (?m pre-post); R8 none (?m pre-post); R9 none (?m pre-post); R10 16:51 (24m pre-post); R11 16:51 (59m pre-post).
- Snapshots captured at/after post time are excluded from 'pre-jump' (they reflect closed pools ≈ SP).
- Morning brief ranking: data/predictions/2026-10-19-st-morning.json (scratched runners removed, probabilities renormalised).
- Exotic hits: top1 = model's #1 combination; top3 = actual combination within model's first three combinations (same derivation as race pages).
- R1: no stored snapshot before post time — hybrid presets used neutral odds
- R1: no last pre-jump snapshot odds for #6, #11, #13, #4, #1, #8, #2, #3, #9, #12, #7, #5, #10 (scored with neutral odds)
- R2: no stored snapshot before post time — hybrid presets used neutral odds
- R2: no last pre-jump snapshot odds for #7, #2, #5, #6, #11, #10, #12, #9, #14, #8, #13, #3, #4, #1 (scored with neutral odds)
- R3: no stored snapshot before post time — hybrid presets used neutral odds
- R3: no last pre-jump snapshot odds for #13, #2, #5, #12, #1, #6, #14, #10, #9, #11, #3, #8, #4, #7 (scored with neutral odds)
- R4: no stored snapshot before post time — hybrid presets used neutral odds
- R4: no last pre-jump snapshot odds for #14, #11, #4, #6, #7, #3, #12, #13, #8, #9, #10, #1, #5, #2 (scored with neutral odds)
- R5: no stored snapshot before post time — hybrid presets used neutral odds
- R5: no last pre-jump snapshot odds for #8, #10, #12, #9, #11, #7, #6, #2, #4, #5, #3, #1 (scored with neutral odds)
- R6: no stored snapshot before post time — hybrid presets used neutral odds
- R6: no last pre-jump snapshot odds for #12, #5, #10, #3, #13, #1, #6, #9, #14, #4, #8, #11, #7, #2 (scored with neutral odds)
- R7: no stored snapshot before post time — hybrid presets used neutral odds
- R7: no last pre-jump snapshot odds for #4, #7, #3, #1, #8, #11, #9, #6, #12, #2, #10, #5 (scored with neutral odds)
- R8: no stored snapshot before post time — hybrid presets used neutral odds
- R8: no last pre-jump snapshot odds for #7, #6, #2, #10, #5, #3, #9, #12, #8, #11, #1 (scored with neutral odds)
- R9: no stored snapshot before post time — hybrid presets used neutral odds
- R9: no last pre-jump snapshot odds for #6, #1, #8, #12, #10, #3, #5, #11, #9, #4, #2 (scored with neutral odds)
- R10: last stored pre-jump snapshot was 24 min before post (16:51 HKT) — late market moves not captured
- R11: last stored pre-jump snapshot was 59 min before post (16:51 HKT) — late market moves not captured
14 Oct 2026 Happy Valley (9 races) — pre-race snapshots vs results
Single-meeting backtest. Morning brief = form-only hybrid published before pools opened (no odds). hybridV2 / hybrid (V1) re-scored with the last stored WIN snapshot before each race's post time (open = morning snapshot for 走勢盤). Favourite baselines use the last pre-race snapshot and the official SP. ROI rows are hypothetical flat HK$10 stakes using official dividends.
Odds mode: last pre-jump WIN snapshot (hybrid presets); SP & morning-open as sensitivity
Preset comparison (pre-race snapshot odds + form)
Same 9 races: morning brief (no odds), hybrid V2 / V1 at the last pre-jump snapshot, and favourite baselines (last snapshot and SP).
| Preset | Win — top pick | Win — in top 3 picks | Top pick placed | Any top-3 pick placed |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morning brief (form only, no odds) | 3/9 (33.3%) | 4/9 (44.4%) | 6/9 (66.7%) | 9/9 (100.0%) |
| Hybrid V2 @ last pre-jump snapshotLive | 3/9 (33.3%) | 4/9 (44.4%) | 5/9 (55.6%) | 9/9 (100.0%) |
| Hybrid V1 @ last pre-jump snapshot | 3/9 (33.3%) | 4/9 (44.4%) | 4/9 (44.4%) | 9/9 (100.0%) |
| Hybrid V3 (shadow, real J/T point-in-time) @ last pre-jump snapshot | 3/9 (33.3%) | 4/9 (44.4%) | 5/9 (55.6%) | 8/9 (88.9%) |
| v2 form + pace @ last pre-jump snapshot | 2/9 (22.2%) | 3/9 (33.3%) | 4/9 (44.4%) | 8/9 (88.9%) |
| Market-lean @ last pre-jump snapshot | 4/9 (44.4%) | 5/9 (55.6%) | 5/9 (55.6%) | 8/9 (88.9%) |
| Favourite — last pre-jump snapshot | 4/9 (44.4%) | 6/9 (66.7%) | 5/9 (55.6%) | 9/9 (100.0%) |
| Favourite — official SP | 2/9 (22.2%) | 6/9 (66.7%) | 6/9 (66.7%) | 8/9 (88.9%) |
Pre-race vs SP
Pre-race: stored snapshots (morning open + last snapshot before each post time); SP from official results
Odds-source sensitivity (hybrid presets)
| Odds source | Win — top pick | Win — in top 3 picks | Top pick placed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hybrid V2 · Last pre-race snap | 3/9 (33.3%) | 4/9 (44.4%) | 5/9 (55.6%) |
| Hybrid V2 · Morning / open | 3/9 (33.3%) | 5/9 (55.6%) | 5/9 (55.6%) |
| Hybrid V2 · SP (results) | 2/9 (22.2%) | 5/9 (55.6%) | 5/9 (55.6%) |
| Hybrid V1 · Last pre-race snap | 3/9 (33.3%) | 4/9 (44.4%) | 4/9 (44.4%) |
| Hybrid V1 · Morning / open | 3/9 (33.3%) | 4/9 (44.4%) | 5/9 (55.6%) |
| Hybrid V1 · SP (results) | 2/9 (22.2%) | 4/9 (44.4%) | 5/9 (55.6%) |
Per race: winner vs each preset's top pick
WIN = top pick won; PL = top pick placed (1st–3rd); ✗ = unplaced. Odds shown are those the preset used (morning brief had none).
| R | Winner (SP) | 1-2-3 | Morning brief | Hybrid V1 | Hybrid V2 | Hybrid V3 (shadow) | Fav (last snap) | Fav (SP) | Last snap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R1 18:35 | #1 CHEERFUL WONGCHOY (4.2) | 1-12-11 | #11WINDICATOR FAMILYPL | #10ORIENTAL SURPRISE✗ @ 6.6 | #11WINDICATOR FAMILYPL @ 5.7 | #11WINDICATOR FAMILYPL @ 5.7 | #1CHEERFUL WONGCHOYWIN @ 5 | #11WINDICATOR FAMILYPL @ 3.5 | 09:16 (558m pre) |
| R2 19:05 | #3 AKERMANIS GOLD (2.3) | 3-8-10 | #3AKERMANIS GOLDWIN | #3AKERMANIS GOLDWIN @ 3 | #3AKERMANIS GOLDWIN @ 3 | #3AKERMANIS GOLDWIN @ 3 | #3AKERMANIS GOLDWIN @ 3 | #3AKERMANIS GOLDWIN @ 2.3 | 18:35 (30m pre) |
| R3 19:35 | #2 SHOOTING TO TOP (4) | 2-10-1 | #2SHOOTING TO TOPWIN | #2SHOOTING TO TOPWIN @ 2.6 | #2SHOOTING TO TOPWIN @ 2.6 | #2SHOOTING TO TOPWIN @ 2.6 | #2SHOOTING TO TOPWIN @ 2.6 | #6DECISION LINK✗ @ 3.4 | 18:35 (60m pre) |
| R4 20:05 | #4 ELEGANT LIFE (11) | 4-12-10 | #2FORERUNNER✗ | #2FORERUNNER✗ @ 4.1 | #2FORERUNNER✗ @ 4.1 | #2FORERUNNER✗ @ 4.1 | #2FORERUNNER✗ @ 4.1 | #12SAME TO YOUPL @ 3.8 | 18:35 (90m pre) |
| R5 20:35 | #5 CHARMING BABE (11) | 5-6-2 | #6DAN ATTACKPL | #1BROWNNEEDSFURTHER✗ @ 4.8 | #1BROWNNEEDSFURTHER✗ @ 4.8 | #1BROWNNEEDSFURTHER✗ @ 4.8 | #1BROWNNEEDSFURTHER✗ @ 4.8 | #1BROWNNEEDSFURTHER✗ @ 3.7 | 18:35 (120m pre) |
| R6 21:10 | #2 MASSIVE SOVEREIGN (9.5) | 2-3-1 | #7LE ZONDA✗ | #7LE ZONDA✗ @ 2.2 | #7LE ZONDA✗ @ 2.2 | #7LE ZONDA✗ @ 2.2 | #7LE ZONDA✗ @ 2.2 | #7LE ZONDA✗ @ 2.3 | 18:35 (155m pre) |
| R7 21:45 | #3 FLASHING FIGHTER (7.7) | 3-5-12 | #5CLOUD NINEPL | #5CLOUD NINEPL @ 2.7 | #5CLOUD NINEPL @ 2.7 | #5CLOUD NINEPL @ 2.7 | #5CLOUD NINEPL @ 2.7 | #5CLOUD NINEPL @ 2.2 | 18:35 (190m pre) |
| R8 22:15 | #9 CHINA WIN (3.4) | 9-2-10 | #9CHINA WINWIN | #9CHINA WINWIN @ 3.4 | #9CHINA WINWIN @ 3.4 | #9CHINA WINWIN @ 3.4 | #9CHINA WINWIN @ 3.4 | #9CHINA WINWIN @ 3.4 | 18:35 (220m pre) |
| R9 22:50 | #5 ACE CHAMPION (5.9) | 5-6-7 | #10WUKONG JEWELLERY✗ | #10WUKONG JEWELLERY✗ @ 4.3 | #10WUKONG JEWELLERY✗ @ 4.3 | #10WUKONG JEWELLERY✗ @ 4.3 | #10WUKONG JEWELLERY✗ @ 4.3 | #6ALL OUT FOR SIXPL @ 4.6 | 18:35 (255m pre) |
Per preset: place & exotic hits
Top1 = model's #1 combination; in3 = actual combination within the model's first three. Top-3 placed = how many of the three picks per race finished 1st–3rd (out of races × 3).
| Preset | Win top1 | Winner in top3 | Top1 placed | Top-3 placed | QIN 1/3 | FCT 1/3 | TCE 1/3 | F4 1/3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morning brief (form only, no odds) | 3/9 (33.3%) | 4/9 (44.4%) | 6/9 (66.7%) | 12/27 (44.4%) | 1/9 / 2/9 | 1/9 / 1/9 | 0/9 / 0/9 | 0/9 / 1/9 |
| Hybrid V2 @ last pre-jump snapshot | 3/9 (33.3%) | 4/9 (44.4%) | 5/9 (55.6%) | 12/27 (44.4%) | 1/9 / 2/9 | 1/9 / 2/9 | 0/9 / 1/9 | 0/9 / 1/9 |
| Hybrid V1 @ last pre-jump snapshot | 3/9 (33.3%) | 4/9 (44.4%) | 4/9 (44.4%) | 12/27 (44.4%) | 1/9 / 2/9 | 1/9 / 2/9 | 0/9 / 1/9 | 0/9 / 1/9 |
| Hybrid V3 (shadow, real J/T point-in-time) @ last pre-jump snapshot | 3/9 (33.3%) | 4/9 (44.4%) | 5/9 (55.6%) | 10/27 (37.0%) | 1/9 / 2/9 | 1/9 / 1/9 | 0/9 / 0/9 | 0/9 / 1/9 |
| Favourite — last pre-jump snapshot | 4/9 (44.4%) | 6/9 (66.7%) | 5/9 (55.6%) | 14/27 (51.9%) | 1/9 / 2/9 | 1/9 / 2/9 | 1/9 / 1/9 | 0/9 / 2/9 |
| Favourite — official SP | 2/9 (22.2%) | 6/9 (66.7%) | 6/9 (66.7%) | 14/27 (51.9%) | 0/9 / 3/9 | 0/9 / 1/9 | 0/9 / 0/9 | 0/9 / 2/9 |
| Market-lean @ last pre-jump snapshot | 4/9 (44.4%) | 5/9 (55.6%) | 5/9 (55.6%) | 14/27 (51.9%) | 0/9 / 3/9 | 0/9 / 2/9 | 0/9 / 1/9 | 0/9 / 1/9 |
| v2 form + pace @ last pre-jump snapshot | 2/9 (22.2%) | 3/9 (33.3%) | 4/9 (44.4%) | 11/27 (40.7%) | 1/9 / 2/9 | 0/9 / 1/9 | 0/9 / 0/9 | 0/9 / 1/9 |
Hypothetical return — flat HK$10 on each top pick
Purely hypothetical, using official HKJC dividends per HK$10. Not betting advice and not indicative of future results. One meeting is a tiny, high-variance sample.
| Preset | Staked | Win return | Win ROI | Place return | Place ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morning brief (form only, no odds) | $90 | $97.5 | 8.3% | $86.5 | -3.9% |
| Hybrid V2 @ last pre-jump snapshot | $90 | $97.5 | 8.3% | $68 | -24.4% |
| Hybrid V1 @ last pre-jump snapshot | $90 | $97.5 | 8.3% | $54 | -40% |
| Hybrid V3 (shadow, real J/T point-in-time) @ last pre-jump snapshot | $90 | $97.5 | 8.3% | $68 | -24.4% |
| Favourite — last pre-jump snapshot | $90 | $139.5 | 55% | $71.5 | -20.6% |
| Favourite — official SP | $90 | $57.5 | -36.1% | $90 | 0% |
| Market-lean @ last pre-jump snapshot | $90 | $139.5 | 55% | $71.5 | -20.6% |
| v2 form + pace @ last pre-jump snapshot | $90 | $57.5 | -36.1% | $58.5 | -35% |
走勢盤 study (stored snapshots only)
open = morning snapshot (~09:19 HKT); lastPre = latest stored snapshot before post time; anyTime = lowest odds in any stored pre-post snapshot; SP = official results Win Odds (SP-basis is hindsight — not knowable before the jump)
| Group | Runners | Win rate | Place rate | Hyp. win return ($10 each) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All runners with a morning price | 99 | 9/99 (9.1%) | 27/99 (27.3%) | $597 / $990 |
| Shortened ≥25% (open → last pre-jump snapshot) | 4 | 1/4 (25.0%) | 1/4 (25.0%) | $34 / $40 |
| Shortened ≥25% at any stored pre-race snapshot | 4 | 1/4 (25.0%) | 1/4 (25.0%) | $34 / $40 |
| Steady (neither) | 93 | 8/93 (8.6%) | 26/93 (28.0%) | $563 / $930 |
| Drifted ≥50% (open → last pre-jump snapshot) | 2 | 0/2 (0.0%) | 0/2 (0.0%) | $0 / $20 |
| Shortened ≥25% open → SP (hindsight) | 22 | 2/22 (9.1%) | 10/22 (45.5%) | $57.5 / $220 |
| Drifted ≥50% open → SP (hindsight) | 37 | 1/37 (2.7%) | 3/37 (8.1%) | $95.5 / $370 |
Open → last pre-jump snapshot: shortened ≥25%
| R / No. | Horse | Open | Low (pre) | Last pre | SP | Move | Finish |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R9 #1 | AURORA PATCH 錶之極光 | 16 | 11 18:35 | 11 | 16 | -31% | 6 |
| R8 #9 | CHINA WIN 中國心 | 4.6 | 3.4 18:35 | 3.4 | 3.4 | -26% | 1 |
| R5 #12 | FREE PONY 三強 | 7.9 | 5.9 18:35 | 5.9 | 10 | -25% | 7 |
| R8 #7 | THE AUSPICIOUS 豐辰 | 20 | 15 18:35 | 15 | 34 | -25% | 8 |
Shortened ≥25% at any stored pre-race snapshot (by low)
| R / No. | Horse | Open | Low (pre) | Last pre | SP | Max move | Finish |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R9 #1 | AURORA PATCH 錶之極光 | 16 | 11 18:35 | 11 | 16 | -31% | 6 |
| R8 #9 | CHINA WIN 中國心 | 4.6 | 3.4 18:35 | 3.4 | 3.4 | -26% | 1 |
| R5 #12 | FREE PONY 三強 | 7.9 | 5.9 18:35 | 5.9 | 10 | -25% | 7 |
| R8 #7 | THE AUSPICIOUS 豐辰 | 20 | 15 18:35 | 15 | 34 | -25% | 8 |
Open → SP: shortened ≥25% (hindsight)
| R / No. | Horse | Open | Low (pre) | Last pre | SP | Move | Finish |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R3 #9 | RED BRICK WARRIOR 紅磚戰士 | 10 | 8.2 18:35 | 8.2 | 3.5 | -65% | 4 |
| R9 #6 | ALL OUT FOR SIX 馭跑得 | 13 | 13 08:30 | 15 | 4.6 | -65% | 2 |
| R4 #12 | SAME TO YOU 有你有我 | 9 | 9 08:30 | 11 | 3.8 | -58% | 2 |
| R8 #10 | VIOLET STAR 紫辰之星 | 14 | 14 08:30 | 15 | 6.4 | -54% | 3 |
| R4 #6 | LOOKING BRIGHT 路路勁 | 20 | 20 08:30 | 20 | 9.4 | -53% | 9 |
| R9 #8 | ROBOT LUCKY STAR 官金騏 | 9.2 | 7.1 18:35 | 7.1 | 4.6 | -50% | 11 |
| R5 #10 | EVERSTAR 廚神 | 21 | 20 09:16 | 21 | 11 | -48% | 9 |
| R5 #9 | MEGA AWESOME 棉棉日上 | 29 | 25 18:35 | 25 | 16 | -45% | 6 |
| R8 #2 | SERAPH GABRIEL 紫荊傳令 | 19 | 18 09:16 | 19 | 11 | -42% | 2 |
| R1 #11 | WINDICATOR FAMILY 威威父子 | 5.9 | 5.7 09:16 | 5.7 | 3.5 | -41% | 3 |
| R5 #1 | BROWNNEEDSFURTHER 星辰千帥 | 6.2 | 4.8 18:35 | 4.8 | 3.7 | -40% | 4 |
| R6 #5 | SILVERY BREEZE 銀亮奔騰 | 7.7 | 7.5 18:35 | 7.5 | 4.7 | -39% | 6 |
| R7 #6 | BITS SUPERSTAR 比特星 | 8.8 | 6.8 18:35 | 6.8 | 5.4 | -39% | 5 |
| R3 #6 | DECISION LINK 有情有義 | 5.5 | 4.5 18:35 | 4.5 | 3.4 | -38% | 5 |
| R8 #4 | LO RIDER 平凡騎士 | 24 | 22 18:35 | 22 | 15 | -37% | 5 |
| R1 #12 | WINNING DIAMOND 鑽得勝 | 13 | 13 08:30 | 14 | 8.7 | -33% | 2 |
| R4 #5 | LEADING DRAGON 應龍飛影 | 6.7 | 6.3 09:16 | 6.6 | 4.6 | -31% | 8 |
| R3 #10 | PRESTIGE RICKY 瑞祺威楓 | 7.3 | 7.2 09:16 | 8 | 5.1 | -30% | 2 |
| R5 #2 | FRIENDS OF SHAJING 沙井之友 | 5.3 | 5.3 08:30 | 5.5 | 3.8 | -28% | 3 |
| R6 #9 | CALIFORNIATOTALITY 加州動員 | 8.1 | 8.1 08:30 | 8.1 | 5.9 | -27% | 7 |
| R8 #9 | CHINA WIN 中國心 | 4.6 | 3.4 18:35 | 3.4 | 3.4 | -26% | 1 |
| R2 #3 | AKERMANIS GOLD 蹺妙 | 3.1 | 3 18:35 | 3 | 2.3 | -26% | 1 |
Late moves after the last stored snapshot (SP ÷ last pre ≤0.75 or ≥1.5)
| R / No. | Horse | Open | Low (pre) | Last pre | SP | SP vs pre | Finish |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R9 #6 | ALL OUT FOR SIX 馭跑得 | 13 | 13 08:30 | 15 | 4.6 | -69% | 2 |
| R4 #12 | SAME TO YOU 有你有我 | 9 | 9 08:30 | 11 | 3.8 | -65% | 2 |
| R3 #9 | RED BRICK WARRIOR 紅磚戰士 | 10 | 8.2 18:35 | 8.2 | 3.5 | -57% | 4 |
| R8 #10 | VIOLET STAR 紫辰之星 | 14 | 14 08:30 | 15 | 6.4 | -57% | 3 |
| R4 #6 | LOOKING BRIGHT 路路勁 | 20 | 20 08:30 | 20 | 9.4 | -53% | 9 |
| R5 #10 | EVERSTAR 廚神 | 21 | 20 09:16 | 21 | 11 | -48% | 9 |
| R8 #2 | SERAPH GABRIEL 紫荊傳令 | 19 | 18 09:16 | 19 | 11 | -42% | 2 |
| R1 #11 | WINDICATOR FAMILY 威威父子 | 5.9 | 5.7 09:16 | 5.7 | 3.5 | -39% | 3 |
| R1 #12 | WINNING DIAMOND 鑽得勝 | 13 | 13 08:30 | 14 | 8.7 | -38% | 2 |
| R6 #5 | SILVERY BREEZE 銀亮奔騰 | 7.7 | 7.5 18:35 | 7.5 | 4.7 | -37% | 6 |
| R3 #10 | PRESTIGE RICKY 瑞祺威楓 | 7.3 | 7.2 09:16 | 8 | 5.1 | -36% | 2 |
| R5 #9 | MEGA AWESOME 棉棉日上 | 29 | 25 18:35 | 25 | 16 | -36% | 6 |
| R9 #8 | ROBOT LUCKY STAR 官金騏 | 9.2 | 7.1 18:35 | 7.1 | 4.6 | -35% | 11 |
| R8 #4 | LO RIDER 平凡騎士 | 24 | 22 18:35 | 22 | 15 | -32% | 5 |
| R5 #2 | FRIENDS OF SHAJING 沙井之友 | 5.3 | 5.3 08:30 | 5.5 | 3.8 | -31% | 3 |
| R4 #5 | LEADING DRAGON 應龍飛影 | 6.7 | 6.3 09:16 | 6.6 | 4.6 | -30% | 8 |
| R8 #5 | CORLEONE 相映紅 | 21 | 21 08:30 | 27 | 19 | -30% | 10 |
| R5 #3 | GOLDEN BRILLIANT 喜馬 | 11 | 11 08:30 | 12 | 8.7 | -28% | 5 |
| R6 #9 | CALIFORNIATOTALITY 加州動員 | 8.1 | 8.1 08:30 | 8.1 | 5.9 | -27% | 7 |
| R8 #12 | FOREVER FOLKS 年年友福 | 11 | 11 08:30 | 12 | 18 | 50% | 11 |
| R6 #2 | MASSIVE SOVEREIGN 大至尊 | 4.7 | 4.7 08:30 | 6.2 | 9.5 | 53% | 1 |
| R7 #10 | PERFECT TRIUMPH 精彩勇將 | 11 | 11 08:30 | 15 | 23 | 53% | 8 |
| R3 #2 | SHOOTING TO TOP 贏玥 | 2.8 | 2.6 18:35 | 2.6 | 4 | 54% | 1 |
| R2 #8 | GAZELEY 同心 | 5.8 | 4.6 18:35 | 4.6 | 7.1 | 54% | 2 |
| R3 #8 | FAMILY KNIGHT 家傳之寶 | 10 | 10 08:30 | 11 | 17 | 54% | 7 |
| R1 #9 | KASA PAPA 架勢奇爸 | 18 | 18 08:30 | 18 | 28 | 56% | 11 |
| R8 #11 | SAMARKAND 建測羣英 | 23 | 21 18:35 | 21 | 33 | 57% | 7 |
| R9 #10 | WUKONG JEWELLERY 首飾悟空 | 4.2 | 4.2 08:30 | 4.3 | 6.8 | 58% | 10 |
| R7 #2 | OUTGATE 亞機拉 | 10 | 10 08:30 | 12 | 19 | 58% | 6 |
| R1 #5 | THE ALL ROUNDER 文武全能 | 6.3 | 6.3 08:30 | 6.3 | 10 | 59% | 10 |
| R7 #8 | A TIME FOR US 開心孖寶 | 18 | 17 18:35 | 17 | 27 | 59% | 10 |
| R4 #10 | COUNTRY PRIDE 鄉村威龍 | 4.5 | 4.5 08:30 | 5.7 | 9.1 | 60% | 3 |
| R4 #1 | DRAGON FOUR SEAS 騰龍四海 | 11 | 9.3 18:35 | 9.3 | 15 | 61% | 5 |
| R4 #7 | THE PERFECT MATCH 至合拍 | 6.7 | 6 18:35 | 6 | 9.7 | 62% | 4 |
| R5 #12 | FREE PONY 三強 | 7.9 | 5.9 18:35 | 5.9 | 10 | 70% | 7 |
| R1 #8 | SETANTA 駟跑得 | 10 | 10 08:30 | 10 | 17 | 70% | 8 |
| R9 #3 | MY DAY MY WAY 好節拍 | 15 | 15 08:30 | 17 | 29 | 71% | 8 |
| R2 #1 | SHAMZ 劍飛聲 | 9.2 | 9.2 08:30 | 11 | 19 | 73% | 7 |
| R6 #1 | SPEED DRAGON 勁速威龍 | 11 | 11 08:30 | 11 | 19 | 73% | 3 |
| R9 #4 | SYMBOL OF STRENGTH 乘數表 | 15 | 15 08:30 | 18 | 32 | 78% | 4 |
| R1 #4 | FLASH STAR 閃電星福 | 36 | 36 08:30 | 37 | 66 | 78% | 7 |
| R7 #9 | CLASSIC TRIPLE 經典多寶 | 27 | 27 08:30 | 37 | 66 | 78% | 7 |
| R2 #2 | DRAGON ON SNOW 騰龍踏雪 | 41 | 41 08:30 | 53 | 97 | 83% | 10 |
| R8 #3 | FIVEFORTWO 好實力 | 5.9 | 5.1 18:35 | 5.1 | 9.5 | 86% | 4 |
| R1 #7 | OUR LUCKY GLORY 多利神駒 | 18 | 17 09:16 | 17 | 34 | 100% | 4 |
| R4 #3 | FIND MY LOVE 紅愛舍 | 11 | 10 09:16 | 12 | 24 | 100% | 7 |
| R1 #3 | WHOWROTETHATSONG 寫我其誰 | 9.3 | 9.3 08:30 | 9.4 | 19 | 102% | 6 |
| R3 #5 | THE AZURE 追風 | 24 | 24 08:30 | 29 | 59 | 103% | 6 |
| R6 #4 | TALENTS AMBITION 精英雄心 | 22 | 22 08:30 | 24 | 50 | 108% | 9 |
| R9 #9 | NORTHERN FIRE BALL 北地烈馬 | 15 | 15 08:30 | 22 | 46 | 109% | 12 |
| R5 #8 | CORNERSTONE 抱百嶺 | 21 | 21 08:30 | 21 | 44 | 110% | 8 |
| R7 #7 | GOLDEN ELITE 金珀尖子 | 39 | 39 08:30 | 52 | 110 | 112% | 12 |
| R8 #7 | THE AUSPICIOUS 豐辰 | 20 | 15 18:35 | 15 | 34 | 127% | 8 |
| R4 #9 | WINNING COMBO 勝之組合 | 24 | 24 08:30 | 27 | 66 | 144% | 10 |
| R4 #8 | CHAMP'S DOMAIN 勝萬家 | 42 | 42 08:30 | 55 | 138 | 151% | 11 |
| R9 #2 | STRAIGHT TO GLORY 團結勇士 | 14 | 14 08:30 | 16 | 41 | 156% | 7 |
| R3 #4 | RAINBOW SEVEN 彩虹七色 | 26 | 26 08:30 | 36 | 94 | 161% | 10 |
| R4 #11 | CASA BUDDY 領航多財 | 40 | 40 08:30 | 45 | 142 | 216% | 12 |
| R3 #3 | CALIFORNIA MOXIE 加州活力 | 10 | 10 08:30 | 13 | 42 | 223% | 8 |
| R3 #7 | KYOTO SPRING 機緣燦爛 | 18 | 18 08:30 | 30 | 97 | 223% | 9 |
Open → last pre-jump snapshot: drifted ≥50%
| R / No. | Horse | Open | Low (pre) | Last pre | SP | Move | Finish |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R3 #7 | KYOTO SPRING 機緣燦爛 | 18 | 18 08:30 | 30 | 97 | 67% | 9 |
| R8 #1 | FORTUNATE SON 將義 | 3.7 | 3.7 08:30 | 6 | 6.2 | 62% | 6 |
Data gaps
- R1: last stored pre-jump snapshot was 558 min before post (09:16 HKT) — late market moves not captured
- R2: last stored pre-jump snapshot was 30 min before post (18:35 HKT) — late market moves not captured
- R3: last stored pre-jump snapshot was 60 min before post (18:35 HKT) — late market moves not captured
- R4: last stored pre-jump snapshot was 90 min before post (18:35 HKT) — late market moves not captured
- R5: last stored pre-jump snapshot was 120 min before post (18:35 HKT) — late market moves not captured
- R6: last stored pre-jump snapshot was 155 min before post (18:35 HKT) — late market moves not captured
- R7: last stored pre-jump snapshot was 190 min before post (18:35 HKT) — late market moves not captured
- R8: last stored pre-jump snapshot was 220 min before post (18:35 HKT) — late market moves not captured
- R9: last stored pre-jump snapshot was 255 min before post (18:35 HKT) — late market moves not captured
Summary metrics
Detailed exotic metrics below are for the hybridV2 (live primary) preset when available, else hybrid V1.
Win — top pick
3/9 (33.3%)
Win — in top 3 picks
4/9 (44.4%)
Top pick placed
5/9 (55.6%)
Any top-3 pick placed
9/9 (100.0%)
Favourite won (SP)
2/9 (22.2%)
Quinella top 1
1/9 (11.1%)
Quinella in top 3
2/9 (22.2%)
Forecast top 1
1/9 (11.1%)
Forecast in top 3
2/9 (22.2%)
Tierce top 1
0/9 (0.0%)
Tierce in top 3
1/9 (11.1%)
First 4 top 1
0/9 (0.0%)
First 4 in top 3
1/9 (11.1%)
By meeting
2026-10-14 · Happy Valley
9 races
- Win — top pick: 3/9 (33.3%)
- Win — in top 3 picks: 4/9 (44.4%)
- Top pick placed: 5/9 (55.6%)
- Favourite won (SP): 2/9 (22.2%)
Per-race results
| Date | Venue | R | Race | Actual | Model top 3 | Hybrid vs actual | Hits | QIN / FCT / TCE / F4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-14 | Happy Valley | 1 | D'AGUILAR HANDICAP | 1-12-11 | 11 WINDICATOR FAMILY 9.7%10 ORIENTAL SURPRISE 9.5%5 THE ALL ROUNDER 8.9% | 10-11-5 vs 1-12-11 W1W3Pl | W1W3PlQINFCTTCEF4 | QIN 10-11 vs 1-12 FCT 11-10 vs 1-12 TCE 11-10-5 vs 1-12-11 F4 1-5-10-11 vs 1-7-11-12 |
| 2026-10-14 | Happy Valley | 2 | ELGIN HANDICAP | 3-8-10 | 3 AKERMANIS GOLD 13.1%10 SURE JOYFUL 11.7%8 GAZELEY 10.6% | 3-10-8 vs 3-8-10 W1W3Pl | W1W3PlQINFCTTCEF4 | QIN 3-10 vs 3-8 FCT 3-10 vs 3-8 TCE 3-10-8 vs 3-8-10 F4 3-4-8-10 vs 3-6-8-10 |
| 2026-10-14 | Happy Valley | 3 | ELGIN HANDICAP | 2-10-1 | 2 SHOOTING TO TOP 12.7%10 PRESTIGE RICKY 11.7%6 DECISION LINK 10.9% | 2-10-6 vs 2-10-1 W1W3Pl | W1W3PlQINFCTTCEF4 | QIN 2-10 vs 2-10 FCT 2-10 vs 2-10 TCE 2-10-6 vs 2-10-1 F4 2-6-9-10 vs 1-2-9-10 |
| 2026-10-14 | Happy Valley | 4 | FINANCE HANDICAP | 4-12-10 | 2 FORERUNNER 11.0%7 THE PERFECT MATCH 9.9%12 SAME TO YOU 9.0% | 2-7-10 vs 4-12-10 W1W3Pl | W1W3PlQINFCTTCEF4 | QIN 2-7 vs 4-12 FCT 2-7 vs 4-12 TCE 2-7-12 vs 4-12-10 F4 2-5-7-12 vs 4-7-10-12 |
| 2026-10-14 | Happy Valley | 5 | FINANCE HANDICAP | 5-6-2 | 1 BROWNNEEDSFURTHER 12.3%3 GOLDEN BRILLIANT 11.7%6 DAN ATTACK 11.5% | 1-6-3 vs 5-6-2 W1W3Pl | W1W3PlQINFCTTCEF4 | QIN 1-3 vs 5-6 FCT 1-3 vs 5-6 TCE 1-3-6 vs 5-6-2 F4 1-3-6-12 vs 1-2-5-6 |
| 2026-10-14 | Happy Valley | 6 | THE HKEX TECH 100 CUP (HANDICAP) | 2-3-1 | 7 LE ZONDA 14.7%5 SILVERY BREEZE 12.0%2 MASSIVE SOVEREIGN 11.1% | 7-5-2 vs 2-3-1 W1W3Pl | W1W3PlQINFCTTCEF4 | QIN 5-7 vs 2-3 FCT 7-5 vs 2-3 TCE 7-5-2 vs 2-3-1 F4 1-2-5-7 vs 1-2-3-6 |
| 2026-10-14 | Happy Valley | 7 | FINANCE HANDICAP | 3-5-12 | 5 CLOUD NINE 10.9%6 BITS SUPERSTAR 9.7%4 GAMEPLAYER ELITE 9.5% | 5-4-6 vs 3-5-12 W1W3Pl | W1W3PlQINFCTTCEF4 | QIN 5-6 vs 3-5 FCT 5-6 vs 3-5 TCE 5-6-4 vs 3-5-12 F4 4-5-6-12 vs 1-3-5-12 |
| 2026-10-14 | Happy Valley | 8 | GAGE HANDICAP | 9-2-10 | 9 CHINA WIN 10.9%3 FIVEFORTWO 9.6%1 FORTUNATE SON 8.7% | 9-3-1 vs 9-2-10 W1W3Pl | W1W3PlQINFCTTCEF4 | QIN 3-9 vs 2-9 FCT 9-3 vs 9-2 TCE 9-3-1 vs 9-2-10 F4 1-3-9-10 vs 2-3-9-10 |
| 2026-10-14 | Happy Valley | 9 | HARBOUR VIEW HANDICAP | 5-6-7 | 10 WUKONG JEWELLERY 10.3%8 ROBOT LUCKY STAR 9.9%7 FOUR STARS ALIGN 9.1% | 10-8-7 vs 5-6-7 W1W3Pl | W1W3PlQINFCTTCEF4 | QIN 8-10 vs 5-6 FCT 10-8 vs 5-6 TCE 10-8-7 vs 5-6-7 F4 5-7-8-10 vs 4-5-6-7 |
- Analysis only — not betting advice. Hypothetical ROI uses official HKJC dividends per HK$10.
- Official results: racing.hkjc.com LocalResults (EN + 繁中); fetched 2026-10-20T06:55:21.466Z.
- Last pre-jump snapshot per race: R1 09:16 (558m pre-post); R2 18:35 (30m pre-post); R3 18:35 (60m pre-post); R4 18:35 (90m pre-post); R5 18:35 (120m pre-post); R6 18:35 (155m pre-post); R7 18:35 (190m pre-post); R8 18:35 (220m pre-post); R9 18:35 (255m pre-post).
- Snapshots captured at/after post time are excluded from 'pre-jump' (they reflect closed pools ≈ SP).
- Morning brief ranking: data/predictions/2026-10-14-hv-morning.json (scratched runners removed, probabilities renormalised).
- Exotic hits: top1 = model's #1 combination; top3 = actual combination within model's first three combinations (same derivation as race pages).
- R1: last stored pre-jump snapshot was 558 min before post (09:16 HKT) — late market moves not captured
- R2: last stored pre-jump snapshot was 30 min before post (18:35 HKT) — late market moves not captured
- R3: last stored pre-jump snapshot was 60 min before post (18:35 HKT) — late market moves not captured
- R4: last stored pre-jump snapshot was 90 min before post (18:35 HKT) — late market moves not captured
- R5: last stored pre-jump snapshot was 120 min before post (18:35 HKT) — late market moves not captured
- R6: last stored pre-jump snapshot was 155 min before post (18:35 HKT) — late market moves not captured
- R7: last stored pre-jump snapshot was 190 min before post (18:35 HKT) — late market moves not captured
- R8: last stored pre-jump snapshot was 220 min before post (18:35 HKT) — late market moves not captured
- R9: last stored pre-jump snapshot was 255 min before post (18:35 HKT) — late market moves not captured
11 Oct 2026 Sha Tin (11 races) — pre-race snapshots vs results
Single-meeting backtest. Morning brief = form-only hybrid published before pools opened (no odds). hybridV2 / hybrid (V1) re-scored with the last stored WIN snapshot before each race's post time (open = morning snapshot for 走勢盤). Favourite baselines use the last pre-race snapshot and the official SP. ROI rows are hypothetical flat HK$10 stakes using official dividends.
Odds mode: last pre-jump WIN snapshot (hybrid presets); SP & morning-open as sensitivity
Preset comparison (pre-race snapshot odds + form)
Same 11 races: morning brief (no odds), hybrid V2 / V1 at the last pre-jump snapshot, and favourite baselines (last snapshot and SP).
| Preset | Win — top pick | Win — in top 3 picks | Top pick placed | Any top-3 pick placed |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morning brief (form only, no odds) | 1/11 (9.1%) | 5/11 (45.5%) | 5/11 (45.5%) | 8/11 (72.7%) |
| Hybrid V2 @ last pre-jump snapshotLive | 1/11 (9.1%) | 5/11 (45.5%) | 5/11 (45.5%) | 8/11 (72.7%) |
| Hybrid V1 @ last pre-jump snapshot | 1/11 (9.1%) | 5/11 (45.5%) | 4/11 (36.4%) | 8/11 (72.7%) |
| Hybrid V3 (shadow, real J/T point-in-time) @ last pre-jump snapshot | 1/11 (9.1%) | 5/11 (45.5%) | 4/11 (36.4%) | 8/11 (72.7%) |
| v2 form + pace @ last pre-jump snapshot | 2/11 (18.2%) | 5/11 (45.5%) | 4/11 (36.4%) | 7/11 (63.6%) |
| Market-lean @ last pre-jump snapshot | 1/11 (9.1%) | 5/11 (45.5%) | 6/11 (54.5%) | 10/11 (90.9%) |
| Favourite — last pre-jump snapshot | 1/11 (9.1%) | 6/11 (54.5%) | 7/11 (63.6%) | 10/11 (90.9%) |
| Favourite — official SP | 2/11 (18.2%) | 7/11 (63.6%) | 8/11 (72.7%) | 11/11 (100.0%) |
Pre-race vs SP
Pre-race: stored snapshots (morning open + last snapshot before each post time); SP from official results
Odds-source sensitivity (hybrid presets)
| Odds source | Win — top pick | Win — in top 3 picks | Top pick placed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hybrid V2 · Last pre-race snap | 1/11 (9.1%) | 5/11 (45.5%) | 5/11 (45.5%) |
| Hybrid V2 · Morning / open | 1/11 (9.1%) | 5/11 (45.5%) | 4/11 (36.4%) |
| Hybrid V2 · SP (results) | 2/11 (18.2%) | 7/11 (63.6%) | 7/11 (63.6%) |
| Hybrid V1 · Last pre-race snap | 1/11 (9.1%) | 5/11 (45.5%) | 4/11 (36.4%) |
| Hybrid V1 · Morning / open | 1/11 (9.1%) | 6/11 (54.5%) | 4/11 (36.4%) |
| Hybrid V1 · SP (results) | 2/11 (18.2%) | 7/11 (63.6%) | 6/11 (54.5%) |
Per race: winner vs each preset's top pick
WIN = top pick won; PL = top pick placed (1st–3rd); ✗ = unplaced. Odds shown are those the preset used (morning brief had none).
| R | Winner (SP) | 1-2-3 | Morning brief | Hybrid V1 | Hybrid V2 | Hybrid V3 (shadow) | Fav (last snap) | Fav (SP) | Last snap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R1 12:30 | #8 SHINYU KOKOROE (40) | 8-9-7 | #3SO MY FOLKS✗ | #3SO MY FOLKS✗ @ 6.4 | #3SO MY FOLKS✗ @ 6.4 | #3SO MY FOLKS✗ @ 6.4 | #7WAVE GARDENPL @ 4.7 | #7WAVE GARDENPL @ 4.6 | 11:40 (49m pre) |
| R2 13:00 | #1 SUNNY Q (4.3) | 1-13-2 | #2AUTUMN VIBESPL | #2AUTUMN VIBESPL @ 4.2 | #2AUTUMN VIBESPL @ 4.2 | #4SPICY SPANGLE✗ @ 6.7 | #2AUTUMN VIBESPL @ 4.2 | #1SUNNY QWIN @ 4.3 | 11:40 (79m pre) |
| R3 13:30 | #4 MIGHTY PROFIT (2.8) | 4-2-7 | #4MIGHTY PROFITWIN | #4MIGHTY PROFITWIN @ 2.5 | #4MIGHTY PROFITWIN @ 2.5 | #4MIGHTY PROFITWIN @ 2.5 | #4MIGHTY PROFITWIN @ 2.5 | #4MIGHTY PROFITWIN @ 2.8 | 11:40 (109m pre) |
| R4 14:00 | #8 KEMPES (5.7) | 8-2-1 | #2BUSTLING CITYPL | #2BUSTLING CITYPL @ 1.4 | #2BUSTLING CITYPL @ 1.4 | #2BUSTLING CITYPL @ 1.4 | #2BUSTLING CITYPL @ 1.4 | #2BUSTLING CITYPL @ 1.4 | 11:40 (139m pre) |
| R5 14:30 | #6 ARMOUR WAR EAGLE (8.9) | 6-8-1 | #2MEGA CAPTAIN✗ | #2MEGA CAPTAIN✗ @ 2.4 | #2MEGA CAPTAIN✗ @ 2.4 | #2MEGA CAPTAIN✗ @ 2.4 | #2MEGA CAPTAIN✗ @ 2.4 | #2MEGA CAPTAIN✗ @ 2.7 | 11:40 (169m pre) |
| R6 15:00 | #12 LET'S HAVE FUN (11) | 12-2-7 | #3DRAGON SKY FORCE✗ | #3DRAGON SKY FORCE✗ @ 4.9 | #3DRAGON SKY FORCE✗ @ 4.9 | #3DRAGON SKY FORCE✗ @ 4.9 | #2GALLANT DESIGNPL @ 4.4 | #2GALLANT DESIGNPL @ 1.9 | 11:40 (199m pre) |
| R7 15:35 | #5 STORM MIRROR (8.9) | 5-10-13 | #3ABSOLUTE AWAKENED✗ | #3ABSOLUTE AWAKENED✗ @ 4.8 | #3ABSOLUTE AWAKENED✗ @ 4.8 | #3ABSOLUTE AWAKENED✗ @ 4.8 | #3ABSOLUTE AWAKENED✗ @ 4.8 | #10TIN FOOKPL @ 2.9 | 11:40 (234m pre) |
| R8 16:05 | #1 JOLLY BRILLIANT (5.6) | 1-7-11 | #11GORGEOUS VICTORYPL | #11GORGEOUS VICTORYPL @ 2.5 | #11GORGEOUS VICTORYPL @ 2.5 | #11GORGEOUS VICTORYPL @ 2.5 | #11GORGEOUS VICTORYPL @ 2.5 | #11GORGEOUS VICTORYPL @ 2 | 11:40 (264m pre) |
| R9 16:35 | #8 MEGASTAR HEART (5) | 8-1-3 | #10EMBRACE ABERDEEN✗ | #10EMBRACE ABERDEEN✗ @ 4.6 | #10EMBRACE ABERDEEN✗ @ 4.6 | #3HAPPY INDEXPL @ 4 | #3HAPPY INDEXPL @ 4 | #3HAPPY INDEXPL @ 4 | 11:40 (294m pre) |
| R10 17:10 | #9 CELESTIAL HERO (7.2) | 9-1-7 | #2TITAN PEGASUS✗ | #2TITAN PEGASUS✗ @ 3.5 | #2TITAN PEGASUS✗ @ 3.5 | #2TITAN PEGASUS✗ @ 3.5 | #2TITAN PEGASUS✗ @ 3.5 | #10DO YOUR PART✗ @ 3.5 | 11:40 (329m pre) |
| R11 17:45 | #3 KA YING ATTACK (5) | 3-6-2 | #6TURQUOISE VELOCITYPL | #11JUMBO TREASURE✗ @ 3.9 | #6TURQUOISE VELOCITYPL @ 4.1 | #11JUMBO TREASURE✗ @ 3.9 | #11JUMBO TREASURE✗ @ 3.9 | #11JUMBO TREASURE✗ @ 3.3 | 11:40 (364m pre) |
Per preset: place & exotic hits
Top1 = model's #1 combination; in3 = actual combination within the model's first three. Top-3 placed = how many of the three picks per race finished 1st–3rd (out of races × 3).
| Preset | Win top1 | Winner in top3 | Top1 placed | Top-3 placed | QIN 1/3 | FCT 1/3 | TCE 1/3 | F4 1/3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morning brief (form only, no odds) | 1/11 (9.1%) | 5/11 (45.5%) | 5/11 (45.5%) | 13/33 (39.4%) | 1/11 / 3/11 | 0/11 / 1/11 | 0/11 / 0/11 | 1/11 / 2/11 |
| Hybrid V2 @ last pre-jump snapshot | 1/11 (9.1%) | 5/11 (45.5%) | 5/11 (45.5%) | 14/33 (42.4%) | 0/11 / 3/11 | 0/11 / 1/11 | 0/11 / 0/11 | 1/11 / 2/11 |
| Hybrid V1 @ last pre-jump snapshot | 1/11 (9.1%) | 5/11 (45.5%) | 4/11 (36.4%) | 14/33 (42.4%) | 0/11 / 3/11 | 0/11 / 1/11 | 0/11 / 0/11 | 1/11 / 2/11 |
| Hybrid V3 (shadow, real J/T point-in-time) @ last pre-jump snapshot | 1/11 (9.1%) | 5/11 (45.5%) | 4/11 (36.4%) | 15/33 (45.5%) | 0/11 / 2/11 | 0/11 / 1/11 | 0/11 / 0/11 | 2/11 / 2/11 |
| Favourite — last pre-jump snapshot | 1/11 (9.1%) | 6/11 (54.5%) | 7/11 (63.6%) | 18/33 (54.5%) | 1/11 / 3/11 | 1/11 / 1/11 | 0/11 / 0/11 | 2/11 / 2/11 |
| Favourite — official SP | 2/11 (18.2%) | 7/11 (63.6%) | 8/11 (72.7%) | 19/33 (57.6%) | 2/11 / 3/11 | 1/11 / 2/11 | 0/11 / 0/11 | 1/11 / 2/11 |
| Market-lean @ last pre-jump snapshot | 1/11 (9.1%) | 5/11 (45.5%) | 6/11 (54.5%) | 17/33 (51.5%) | 1/11 / 1/11 | 1/11 / 1/11 | 0/11 / 0/11 | 2/11 / 2/11 |
| v2 form + pace @ last pre-jump snapshot | 2/11 (18.2%) | 5/11 (45.5%) | 4/11 (36.4%) | 12/33 (36.4%) | 1/11 / 3/11 | 0/11 / 2/11 | 0/11 / 0/11 | 0/11 / 1/11 |
Hypothetical return — flat HK$10 on each top pick
Purely hypothetical, using official HKJC dividends per HK$10. Not betting advice and not indicative of future results. One meeting is a tiny, high-variance sample.
| Preset | Staked | Win return | Win ROI | Place return | Place ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morning brief (form only, no odds) | $110 | $28 | -74.5% | $75.1 | -31.7% |
| Hybrid V2 @ last pre-jump snapshot | $110 | $28 | -74.5% | $75.1 | -31.7% |
| Hybrid V1 @ last pre-jump snapshot | $110 | $28 | -74.5% | $60.6 | -44.9% |
| Hybrid V3 (shadow, real J/T point-in-time) @ last pre-jump snapshot | $110 | $28 | -74.5% | $52.1 | -52.6% |
| Favourite — last pre-jump snapshot | $110 | $28 | -74.5% | $105.1 | -4.5% |
| Favourite — official SP | $110 | $71.5 | -35% | $114.1 | 3.7% |
| Market-lean @ last pre-jump snapshot | $110 | $28 | -74.5% | $93.1 | -15.4% |
| v2 form + pace @ last pre-jump snapshot | $110 | $71.5 | -35% | $54.6 | -50.4% |
走勢盤 study (stored snapshots only)
open = morning snapshot (~09:19 HKT); lastPre = latest stored snapshot before post time; anyTime = lowest odds in any stored pre-post snapshot; SP = official results Win Odds (SP-basis is hindsight — not knowable before the jump)
| Group | Runners | Win rate | Place rate | Hyp. win return ($10 each) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All runners with a morning price | 136 | 11/136 (8.1%) | 33/136 (24.3%) | $1055 / $1360 |
| Shortened ≥25% (open → last pre-jump snapshot) | 0 | 0/0 (0.0%) | 0/0 (0.0%) | $0 / $0 |
| Shortened ≥25% at any stored pre-race snapshot | 0 | 0/0 (0.0%) | 0/0 (0.0%) | $0 / $0 |
| Steady (neither) | 136 | 11/136 (8.1%) | 33/136 (24.3%) | $1055 / $1360 |
| Drifted ≥50% (open → last pre-jump snapshot) | 0 | 0/0 (0.0%) | 0/0 (0.0%) | $0 / $0 |
| Shortened ≥25% open → SP (hindsight) | 23 | 3/23 (13.0%) | 11/23 (47.8%) | $151.5 / $230 |
| Drifted ≥50% open → SP (hindsight) | 54 | 2/54 (3.7%) | 5/54 (9.3%) | $517.5 / $540 |
Open → last pre-jump snapshot: shortened ≥25%
None
Shortened ≥25% at any stored pre-race snapshot (by low)
None
Open → SP: shortened ≥25% (hindsight)
| R / No. | Horse | Open | Low (pre) | Last pre | SP | Move | Finish |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R2 #14 | ISLAND BREEZES 鼓浪高升 | 23 | 23 09:19 | 23 | 6.5 | -72% | 12 |
| R6 #11 | AMO ERGO SUM 猶有心得 | 31 | 31 09:19 | 32 | 10 | -68% | 6 |
| R7 #10 | TIN FOOK 天福 | 7.9 | 7.2 11:40 | 7.2 | 2.9 | -63% | 2 |
| R6 #2 | GALLANT DESIGN 創寶駒 | 4.5 | 4.4 11:40 | 4.4 | 1.9 | -58% | 2 DH |
| R4 #8 | KEMPES 肯佩斯 | 13 | 12 11:40 | 12 | 5.7 | -56% | 1 |
| R3 #11 | SUPER DRAGON 源好運 | 26 | 26 09:19 | 29 | 12 | -54% | 4 |
| R8 #4 | MEGA MASTERMIND 睿智多寶 | 34 | 34 09:19 | 40 | 16 | -53% | 7 |
| R7 #7 | TYCOON EXPRESS 騰達勇士 | 22 | 22 09:19 | 24 | 11 | -50% | 5 |
| R10 #4 | EVERYONE'S STAR 大眾福星 | 32 | 29 11:40 | 29 | 16 | -50% | 4 |
| R10 #10 | DO YOUR PART 做好自己 | 7 | 7 09:19 | 7.4 | 3.5 | -50% | 7 |
| R5 #4 | CENTRAL BANK 怡傲錢莊 | 12 | 11 11:40 | 11 | 6.1 | -49% | 7 |
| R9 #11 | SHANGHAI WARRIOR 上海勇士 | 21 | 21 09:19 | 24 | 12 | -43% | 10 |
| R2 #1 | SUNNY Q 新力驕 | 7.4 | 7.4 09:19 | 7.5 | 4.3 | -42% | 1 |
| R3 #2 | CALL ME SPARKLE 龍之悅 | 5.3 | 5.3 09:19 | 5.3 | 3.1 | -41% | 2 |
| R8 #11 | GORGEOUS VICTORY 華麗再贏 | 3.2 | 2.5 11:40 | 2.5 | 2 | -37% | 3 |
| R5 #1 | JUICY DRAGON 起舞奜奜 | 11 | 11 09:19 | 11 | 7.1 | -35% | 3 |
| R9 #1 | SWIFT ASCEND 駿步騰飛 | 11 | 9.6 11:40 | 9.6 | 7.2 | -34% | 2 |
| R1 #10 | HAPPY ACTION 喜行 | 13 | 13 09:19 | 13 | 8.8 | -32% | 8 |
| R11 #2 | RISING FORCE 扶搖勢勁 | 8.4 | 7.5 11:40 | 7.5 | 5.7 | -32% | 3 |
| R4 #1 | LUCY IN THE SKY 鑽石星空 | 11 | 9.4 11:40 | 9.4 | 7.8 | -29% | 3 |
| R11 #3 | KA YING ATTACK 嘉應奇兵 | 7 | 7 09:19 | 7.1 | 5 | -29% | 1 |
| R8 #13 | SMART FAT CAT 天蓬貓 | 9.4 | 9.4 09:19 | 10 | 6.8 | -28% | 6 |
| R3 #9 | LUCKY DOCTOR 幸運大夫 | 13 | 13 09:19 | 14 | 9.5 | -27% | 9 |
Late moves after the last stored snapshot (SP ÷ last pre ≤0.75 or ≥1.5)
| R / No. | Horse | Open | Low (pre) | Last pre | SP | SP vs pre | Finish |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R2 #14 | ISLAND BREEZES 鼓浪高升 | 23 | 23 09:19 | 23 | 6.5 | -72% | 12 |
| R6 #11 | AMO ERGO SUM 猶有心得 | 31 | 31 09:19 | 32 | 10 | -69% | 6 |
| R8 #4 | MEGA MASTERMIND 睿智多寶 | 34 | 34 09:19 | 40 | 16 | -60% | 7 |
| R7 #10 | TIN FOOK 天福 | 7.9 | 7.2 11:40 | 7.2 | 2.9 | -60% | 2 |
| R3 #11 | SUPER DRAGON 源好運 | 26 | 26 09:19 | 29 | 12 | -59% | 4 |
| R6 #2 | GALLANT DESIGN 創寶駒 | 4.5 | 4.4 11:40 | 4.4 | 1.9 | -57% | 2 DH |
| R7 #7 | TYCOON EXPRESS 騰達勇士 | 22 | 22 09:19 | 24 | 11 | -54% | 5 |
| R10 #10 | DO YOUR PART 做好自己 | 7 | 7 09:19 | 7.4 | 3.5 | -53% | 7 |
| R4 #8 | KEMPES 肯佩斯 | 13 | 12 11:40 | 12 | 5.7 | -52% | 1 |
| R9 #11 | SHANGHAI WARRIOR 上海勇士 | 21 | 21 09:19 | 24 | 12 | -50% | 10 |
| R10 #4 | EVERYONE'S STAR 大眾福星 | 32 | 29 11:40 | 29 | 16 | -45% | 4 |
| R5 #4 | CENTRAL BANK 怡傲錢莊 | 12 | 11 11:40 | 11 | 6.1 | -44% | 7 |
| R2 #1 | SUNNY Q 新力驕 | 7.4 | 7.4 09:19 | 7.5 | 4.3 | -43% | 1 |
| R3 #2 | CALL ME SPARKLE 龍之悅 | 5.3 | 5.3 09:19 | 5.3 | 3.1 | -41% | 2 |
| R5 #1 | JUICY DRAGON 起舞奜奜 | 11 | 11 09:19 | 11 | 7.1 | -35% | 3 |
| R5 #8 | GIANT LEAP 日馳千里 | 12 | 12 09:19 | 14 | 9.2 | -34% | 2 |
| R9 #8 | MEGASTAR HEART 正本巨星 | 6.1 | 6.1 09:19 | 7.4 | 5 | -32% | 1 |
| R1 #10 | HAPPY ACTION 喜行 | 13 | 13 09:19 | 13 | 8.8 | -32% | 8 |
| R3 #9 | LUCKY DOCTOR 幸運大夫 | 13 | 13 09:19 | 14 | 9.5 | -32% | 9 |
| R8 #13 | SMART FAT CAT 天蓬貓 | 9.4 | 9.4 09:19 | 10 | 6.8 | -32% | 6 |
| R11 #3 | KA YING ATTACK 嘉應奇兵 | 7 | 7 09:19 | 7.1 | 5 | -30% | 1 |
| R9 #1 | SWIFT ASCEND 駿步騰飛 | 11 | 9.6 11:40 | 9.6 | 7.2 | -25% | 2 |
| R7 #2 | LUNAR DASH 渡月橋 | 31 | 31 09:19 | 33 | 50 | 51% | 9 |
| R6 #5 | SASSPHIRE 睿麗人生 | 23 | 23 09:19 | 23 | 35 | 52% | 10 |
| R11 #1 | STORM RIDER 風雲武士 | 8.4 | 8.4 09:19 | 9.2 | 14 | 52% | 5 |
| R10 #5 | FORTUNE LINK 重情重義 | 14 | 14 09:19 | 15 | 23 | 53% | 8 |
| R1 #8 | SHINYU KOKOROE 摯友心得 | 24 | 24 09:19 | 26 | 40 | 54% | 1 |
| R6 #3 | DRAGON SKY FORCE 皇龍天將 | 5.3 | 4.9 11:40 | 4.9 | 7.6 | 55% | 4 |
| R1 #6 | MAGIC SUPER 駿皇逸 | 44 | 42 11:40 | 42 | 66 | 57% | 12 |
| R6 #12 | LET'S HAVE FUN 共創歡欣 | 6.6 | 6.6 09:19 | 7 | 11 | 57% | 1 |
| R8 #8 | BEST WORLD 同樣世界 | 20 | 20 09:19 | 20 | 32 | 60% | 11 |
| R10 #7 | CHIU CHOW SPIRIT 潮州精神 | 7.5 | 7.4 11:40 | 7.4 | 12 | 62% | 3 |
| R8 #14 | BRIGHT INHERITANCE 光明傳承 | 31 | 31 09:19 | 36 | 60 | 67% | 12 |
| R8 #2 | ACE 部族高手 | 18 | 18 09:19 | 19 | 32 | 68% | 8 |
| R3 #10 | WARRIORS DREAM 奇異歡星 | 25 | 25 09:19 | 26 | 45 | 73% | 6 |
| R1 #2 | MARVEL AND GOLD 神異金剛 | 14 | 14 09:19 | 15 | 26 | 73% | 6 |
| R9 #10 | EMBRACE ABERDEEN 香港仔 | 6.1 | 4.6 11:40 | 4.6 | 8.1 | 76% | 7 |
| R3 #1 | CROSSBORDERDUDE 跨境駿馬 | 5.7 | 5.6 11:40 | 5.6 | 10 | 79% | 8 |
| R2 #6 | VERBIER 朗日雪峰 | 15 | 15 09:19 | 15 | 27 | 80% | 11 |
| R8 #3 | MASTER TRILLION 八仟財陞 | 9.7 | 9.7 09:19 | 9.9 | 18 | 82% | 9 |
| R3 #12 | BEST FARM 種得好 | 56 | 56 09:19 | 61 | 113 | 85% | 7 |
| R7 #4 | ONE MORE 百威多贏 | 16 | 15 11:40 | 15 | 28 | 87% | 12 |
| R6 #10 | ENJOY GOLF 快樂高球 | 7.5 | 7.5 09:19 | 8.5 | 16 | 88% | 11 |
| R8 #6 | BUCEPHALAS 鬥志波 | 15 | 15 09:19 | 18 | 34 | 89% | 10 |
| R11 #12 | PAKISTAN LEGACY 巴基之勝 | 28 | 28 09:19 | 29 | 55 | 90% | 7 |
| R3 #3 | INVINCIBLE STARR 賢者福星 | 40 | 40 09:19 | 41 | 81 | 98% | 11 |
| R2 #5 | TOPSPIN KING 尚旋 | 59 | 59 09:19 | 59 | 119 | 102% | 14 |
| R7 #13 | SOO KOO 君至酷 | 65 | 65 09:19 | 70 | 142 | 103% | 3 |
| R9 #9 | SILK MASTER 絲王之王 | 16 | 16 09:19 | 18 | 37 | 106% | 4 |
| R10 #11 | ANOTHER ZONDA 暴風之子 | 41 | 41 09:19 | 45 | 94 | 109% | 13 |
| R2 #7 | BEAUTY GEMINI 雙子美麗 | 9.1 | 9.1 09:19 | 10 | 21 | 110% | 7 |
| R4 #10 | DRAGON JOY 皇仁歡星 | 33 | 31 11:40 | 31 | 67 | 116% | 8 |
| R5 #7 | GOOD CHAP 金玉良言 | 14 | 12 11:40 | 12 | 26 | 117% | 6 |
| R7 #1 | HAPPY TERCENTENARY 喜豐年 | 12 | 11 11:40 | 11 | 24 | 118% | 6 |
| R7 #12 | FLUORESCENCE 熒光 | 58 | 58 09:19 | 65 | 145 | 123% | 14 |
| R3 #5 | SILVER BLAZE 各絲各法 | 29 | 29 09:19 | 32 | 72 | 125% | 10 |
| R6 #8 | PARROT BLESSING 鸚姿威鵡 | 14 | 14 09:19 | 16 | 36 | 125% | 9 |
| R6 #6 | TELECOM FORTUNE 電訊日進 | 29 | 29 09:19 | 32 | 73 | 128% | 12 |
| R5 #9 | GROUPER 老鼠斑 | 10 | 10 09:19 | 10 | 23 | 130% | 12 |
| R10 #14 | TANG HEART 正本唐心 | 13 | 13 09:19 | 16 | 37 | 131% | 11 |
| R4 #4 | SKY CAP 富心星 | 18 | 18 09:19 | 19 | 44 | 132% | 4 |
| R7 #11 | DAILY FUN 共同享樂 | 41 | 40 11:40 | 40 | 93 | 133% | 13 |
| R8 #12 | FAMILY FORTUNE 富裕君子 | 30 | 30 09:19 | 33 | 77 | 133% | 13 |
| R11 #8 | SON PAK FU 小霸王 | 16 | 16 09:19 | 16 | 38 | 138% | 6 |
| R5 #3 | SOMELOVEFROMABOVE 棒棒糖 | 12 | 12 09:19 | 14 | 34 | 143% | 9 |
| R10 #13 | SUPER UNICORN 勁好運 | 34 | 34 09:19 | 38 | 93 | 145% | 12 |
| R7 #9 | STUNNING BUNDLE 震撼人心 | 11 | 11 09:19 | 11 | 27 | 146% | 7 |
| R5 #5 | TACTICAL ACE 智勝一籌 | 14 | 14 09:19 | 18 | 45 | 150% | 8 |
| R4 #9 | ZHUANG YUAN GLORY 狀元聲價 | 7.4 | 6.7 11:40 | 6.7 | 17 | 154% | 6 |
| R10 #8 | STAY COSMIC 一馬當先 | 43 | 42 11:40 | 42 | 108 | 157% | 6 |
| R9 #5 | ON THE WAY 隨想曲 | 29 | 29 09:19 | 29 | 76 | 162% | 8 |
| R10 #6 | SO NAIVE 開心福駒 | 24 | 24 09:19 | 29 | 80 | 176% | 14 |
| R11 #10 | BRAVE STAR 勇敢巨星 | 35 | 35 09:19 | 37 | 109 | 195% | 12 |
| R6 #4 | GLORY PATCH 錶之光速 | 13 | 13 09:19 | 14 | 42 | 200% | 5 |
| R11 #5 | SELF IMPROVEMENT 自強不息 | 32 | 32 09:19 | 33 | 118 | 258% | 10 |
| R8 #5 | BEAUTY VIVA 爆出美麗 | 14 | 14 09:19 | 20 | 84 | 320% | 14 |
Open → last pre-jump snapshot: drifted ≥50%
None
Data gaps
- R1: last stored pre-jump snapshot was 49 min before post (11:40 HKT) — late market moves not captured
- R2: last stored pre-jump snapshot was 79 min before post (11:40 HKT) — late market moves not captured
- R3: last stored pre-jump snapshot was 109 min before post (11:40 HKT) — late market moves not captured
- R4: last stored pre-jump snapshot was 139 min before post (11:40 HKT) — late market moves not captured
- R5: last stored pre-jump snapshot was 169 min before post (11:40 HKT) — late market moves not captured
- R6: last stored pre-jump snapshot was 199 min before post (11:40 HKT) — late market moves not captured
- R7: last stored pre-jump snapshot was 234 min before post (11:40 HKT) — late market moves not captured
- R8: last stored pre-jump snapshot was 264 min before post (11:40 HKT) — late market moves not captured
- R9: last stored pre-jump snapshot was 294 min before post (11:40 HKT) — late market moves not captured
- R10: last stored pre-jump snapshot was 329 min before post (11:40 HKT) — late market moves not captured
- R11: last stored pre-jump snapshot was 364 min before post (11:40 HKT) — late market moves not captured
Summary metrics
Detailed exotic metrics below are for the hybridV2 (live primary) preset when available, else hybrid V1.
Win — top pick
1/11 (9.1%)
Win — in top 3 picks
5/11 (45.5%)
Top pick placed
5/11 (45.5%)
Any top-3 pick placed
8/11 (72.7%)
Favourite won (SP)
2/11 (18.2%)
Quinella top 1
0/11 (0.0%)
Quinella in top 3
3/11 (27.3%)
Forecast top 1
0/11 (0.0%)
Forecast in top 3
1/11 (9.1%)
Tierce top 1
0/11 (0.0%)
Tierce in top 3
0/11 (0.0%)
First 4 top 1
1/11 (9.1%)
First 4 in top 3
2/11 (18.2%)
By meeting
2026-10-11 · Sha Tin
11 races
- Win — top pick: 1/11 (9.1%)
- Win — in top 3 picks: 5/11 (45.5%)
- Top pick placed: 5/11 (45.5%)
- Favourite won (SP): 2/11 (18.2%)
Per-race results
| Date | Venue | R | Race | Actual | Model top 3 | Hybrid vs actual | Hits | QIN / FCT / TCE / F4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-11 | Sha Tin | 1 | HUNG SHUI KIU HANDICAP | 8-9-7 | 3 SO MY FOLKS 9.3%7 WAVE GARDEN 8.8%4 JOLLY COMPANION 8.7% | 3-11-7 vs 8-9-7 W1W3Pl | W1W3PlQINFCTTCEF4 | QIN 3-7 vs 8-9 FCT 3-7 vs 8-9 TCE 3-7-4 vs 8-9-7 F4 3-4-7-11 vs 5-7-8-9 |
| 2026-10-11 | Sha Tin | 2 | KAM TIN HANDICAP | 1-13-2 | 2 AUTUMN VIBES 8.5%1 SUNNY Q 8.2%4 SPICY SPANGLE 8.1% | 2-1-4 vs 1-13-2 W1W3Pl | W1W3PlQINFCTTCEF4 | QIN 1-2 vs 1-13 FCT 2-1 vs 1-13 TCE 2-1-4 vs 1-13-2 F4 1-2-4-13 vs 1-2-11-13 |
| 2026-10-11 | Sha Tin | 3 | LAM TEI HANDICAP | 4-2-7 | 4 MIGHTY PROFIT 11.2%1 CROSSBORDERDUDE 10.0%2 CALL ME SPARKLE 9.4% | 4-1-2 vs 4-2-7 W1W3Pl | W1W3PlQINFCTTCEF4 | QIN 1-4 vs 2-4 FCT 4-1 vs 4-2 TCE 4-1-2 vs 4-2-7 F4 1-2-4-8 vs 2-4-7-11 |
| 2026-10-11 | Sha Tin | 4 | LAU FAU SHAN HANDICAP | 8-2-1 | 2 BUSTLING CITY 17.8%1 LUCY IN THE SKY 12.6%8 KEMPES 12.5% | 2-1-8 vs 8-2-1 W1W3Pl | W1W3PlQINFCTTCEF4 | QIN 1-2 vs 2-8 FCT 2-1 vs 8-2 TCE 2-1-8 vs 8-2-1 F4 1-2-8-9 vs 1-2-4-8 |
| 2026-10-11 | Sha Tin | 5 | MAI PO HANDICAP | 6-8-1 | 2 MEGA CAPTAIN 11.1%9 GROUPER 9.0%4 CENTRAL BANK 8.6% | 2-9-4 vs 6-8-1 W1W3Pl | W1W3PlQINFCTTCEF4 | QIN 2-9 vs 6-8 FCT 2-9 vs 6-8 TCE 2-9-4 vs 6-8-1 F4 2-4-7-9 vs 1-2-6-8 |
| 2026-10-11 | Sha Tin | 6 | THE POK OI CUP (HANDICAP) | 12-2-7 | 3 DRAGON SKY FORCE 10.1%2 GALLANT DESIGN 9.9%12 LET'S HAVE FUN 9.5% | 3-2-12 vs 12-2-7 W1W3Pl | W1W3PlQINFCTTCEF4 | QIN 2-3 vs 2-12 FCT 3-2 vs 12-2 TCE 3-2-12 vs 12-2-7 F4 2-3-7-12 vs 2-3-7-12 |
| 2026-10-11 | Sha Tin | 7 | NAM SANG WAI HANDICAP | 5-10-13 | 3 ABSOLUTE AWAKENED 8.4%14 GOOD LUCK BABE 8.3%6 CAVA PIONEER 8.3% | 3-14-6 vs 5-10-13 W1W3Pl | W1W3PlQINFCTTCEF4 | QIN 3-14 vs 5-10 FCT 3-14 vs 5-10 TCE 3-14-6 vs 5-10-13 F4 3-5-6-14 vs 3-5-10-13 |
| 2026-10-11 | Sha Tin | 8 | PING SHAN HANDICAP | 1-7-11 | 11 GORGEOUS VICTORY 9.8%1 JOLLY BRILLIANT 8.4%13 SMART FAT CAT 8.0% | 11-1-13 vs 1-7-11 W1W3Pl | W1W3PlQINFCTTCEF4 | QIN 1-11 vs 1-7 FCT 11-1 vs 1-7 TCE 11-1-13 vs 1-7-11 F4 1-8-11-13 vs 1-7-9-11 |
| 2026-10-11 | Sha Tin | 9 | SAN TIN HANDICAP | 8-1-3 | 10 EMBRACE ABERDEEN 9.8%3 HAPPY INDEX 9.5%4 COOL BOY 8.9% | 10-3-4 vs 8-1-3 W1W3Pl | W1W3PlQINFCTTCEF4 | QIN 3-10 vs 1-8 FCT 10-3 vs 8-1 TCE 10-3-4 vs 8-1-3 F4 1-3-4-10 vs 1-3-8-9 |
| 2026-10-11 | Sha Tin | 10 | SHUI PIN WAI HANDICAP | 9-1-7 | 2 TITAN PEGASUS 8.6%10 DO YOUR PART 8.0%3 FIT FOR BEAUTY 7.8% | 2-10-3 vs 9-1-7 W1W3Pl | W1W3PlQINFCTTCEF4 | QIN 2-10 vs 1-9 FCT 2-10 vs 9-1 TCE 2-10-3 vs 9-1-7 F4 2-3-7-10 vs 1-4-7-9 |
| 2026-10-11 | Sha Tin | 11 | YUEN LONG HANDICAP | 3-6-2 | 6 TURQUOISE VELOCITY 10.1%11 JUMBO TREASURE 10.1%9 BLAZING WIND 9.0% | 11-6-9 vs 3-6-2 W1W3Pl | W1W3PlQINFCTTCEF4 | QIN 6-11 vs 3-6 FCT 6-11 vs 3-6 TCE 6-11-9 vs 3-6-2 F4 2-6-9-11 vs 2-3-6-11 |
- Analysis only — not betting advice. Hypothetical ROI uses official HKJC dividends per HK$10.
- Official results: racing.hkjc.com LocalResults (EN + 繁中); fetched 2026-10-20T06:54:40.998Z.
- Last pre-jump snapshot per race: R1 11:40 (49m pre-post); R2 11:40 (79m pre-post); R3 11:40 (109m pre-post); R4 11:40 (139m pre-post); R5 11:40 (169m pre-post); R6 11:40 (199m pre-post); R7 11:40 (234m pre-post); R8 11:40 (264m pre-post); R9 11:40 (294m pre-post); R10 11:40 (329m pre-post); R11 11:40 (364m pre-post).
- Snapshots captured at/after post time are excluded from 'pre-jump' (they reflect closed pools ≈ SP).
- Morning brief ranking: data/predictions/2026-10-11-st-morning.json (scratched runners removed, probabilities renormalised).
- Exotic hits: top1 = model's #1 combination; top3 = actual combination within model's first three combinations (same derivation as race pages).
- R1: last stored pre-jump snapshot was 49 min before post (11:40 HKT) — late market moves not captured
- R2: last stored pre-jump snapshot was 79 min before post (11:40 HKT) — late market moves not captured
- R3: last stored pre-jump snapshot was 109 min before post (11:40 HKT) — late market moves not captured
- R4: last stored pre-jump snapshot was 139 min before post (11:40 HKT) — late market moves not captured
- R5: last stored pre-jump snapshot was 169 min before post (11:40 HKT) — late market moves not captured
- R6: last stored pre-jump snapshot was 199 min before post (11:40 HKT) — late market moves not captured
- R7: last stored pre-jump snapshot was 234 min before post (11:40 HKT) — late market moves not captured
- R8: last stored pre-jump snapshot was 264 min before post (11:40 HKT) — late market moves not captured
- R9: last stored pre-jump snapshot was 294 min before post (11:40 HKT) — late market moves not captured
- R10: last stored pre-jump snapshot was 329 min before post (11:40 HKT) — late market moves not captured
- R11: last stored pre-jump snapshot was 364 min before post (11:40 HKT) — late market moves not captured
7 Oct 2026 Happy Valley (9 races) — pre-race snapshots vs results
Single-meeting backtest. Morning brief = form-only hybrid published before pools opened (no odds). hybridV2 / hybrid (V1) re-scored with the last stored WIN snapshot before each race's post time (open = morning snapshot for 走勢盤). Favourite baselines use the last pre-race snapshot and the official SP. ROI rows are hypothetical flat HK$10 stakes using official dividends.
Odds mode: last pre-jump WIN snapshot (hybrid presets); SP & morning-open as sensitivity
Preset comparison (pre-race snapshot odds + form)
Same 9 races: morning brief (no odds), hybrid V2 / V1 at the last pre-jump snapshot, and favourite baselines (last snapshot and SP).
| Preset | Win — top pick | Win — in top 3 picks | Top pick placed | Any top-3 pick placed |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morning brief (form only, no odds) | 2/9 (22.2%) | 6/9 (66.7%) | 4/9 (44.4%) | 8/9 (88.9%) |
| Hybrid V2 @ last pre-jump snapshotLive | 2/9 (22.2%) | 6/9 (66.7%) | 4/9 (44.4%) | 8/9 (88.9%) |
| Hybrid V1 @ last pre-jump snapshot | 2/9 (22.2%) | 6/9 (66.7%) | 4/9 (44.4%) | 7/9 (77.8%) |
| Hybrid V3 (shadow, real J/T point-in-time) @ last pre-jump snapshot | 3/9 (33.3%) | 6/9 (66.7%) | 4/9 (44.4%) | 8/9 (88.9%) |
| v2 form + pace @ last pre-jump snapshot | 3/9 (33.3%) | 7/9 (77.8%) | 4/9 (44.4%) | 8/9 (88.9%) |
| Market-lean @ last pre-jump snapshot | 1/9 (11.1%) | 5/9 (55.6%) | 3/9 (33.3%) | 8/9 (88.9%) |
| Favourite — last pre-jump snapshot | 1/9 (11.1%) | 5/9 (55.6%) | 2/9 (22.2%) | 7/9 (77.8%) |
| Favourite — official SP | 1/9 (11.1%) | 6/9 (66.7%) | 3/9 (33.3%) | 7/9 (77.8%) |
Pre-race vs SP
Pre-race: stored snapshots (morning open + last snapshot before each post time); SP from official results
Odds-source sensitivity (hybrid presets)
| Odds source | Win — top pick | Win — in top 3 picks | Top pick placed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hybrid V2 · Last pre-race snap | 2/9 (22.2%) | 6/9 (66.7%) | 4/9 (44.4%) |
| Hybrid V2 · Morning / open | 2/9 (22.2%) | 6/9 (66.7%) | 4/9 (44.4%) |
| Hybrid V2 · SP (results) | 2/9 (22.2%) | 6/9 (66.7%) | 4/9 (44.4%) |
| Hybrid V1 · Last pre-race snap | 2/9 (22.2%) | 6/9 (66.7%) | 4/9 (44.4%) |
| Hybrid V1 · Morning / open | 2/9 (22.2%) | 6/9 (66.7%) | 4/9 (44.4%) |
| Hybrid V1 · SP (results) | 3/9 (33.3%) | 7/9 (77.8%) | 4/9 (44.4%) |
Per race: winner vs each preset's top pick
WIN = top pick won; PL = top pick placed (1st–3rd); ✗ = unplaced. Odds shown are those the preset used (morning brief had none).
| R | Winner (SP) | 1-2-3 | Morning brief | Hybrid V1 | Hybrid V2 | Hybrid V3 (shadow) | Fav (last snap) | Fav (SP) | Last snap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R1 18:35 | #9 GOLDEN FORTUNE (4.7) | 9-4-8 | #1CAN'T GO WONG✗ | #1CAN'T GO WONG✗ @ 3.9 | #1CAN'T GO WONG✗ @ 3.9 | #1CAN'T GO WONG✗ @ 3.9 | #1CAN'T GO WONG✗ @ 3.9 | #1CAN'T GO WONG✗ @ 4 | 12:26 (369m pre) |
| R2 19:05 | #7 NEW POWER (9.9) | 7-5-9 | #10LOVING VIBES✗ | #10LOVING VIBES✗ @ 2.3 | #10LOVING VIBES✗ @ 2.3 | #10LOVING VIBES✗ @ 2.3 | #10LOVING VIBES✗ @ 2.3 | #10LOVING VIBES✗ @ 2.6 | 12:26 (399m pre) |
| R3 19:35 | #4 SUNDAY'S SERENADE (4.9) | 4-6-3 | #4SUNDAY'S SERENADEWIN | #4SUNDAY'S SERENADEWIN @ 4.4 | #4SUNDAY'S SERENADEWIN @ 4.4 | #4SUNDAY'S SERENADEWIN @ 4.4 | #10FORTUNE STAR✗ @ 3.6 | #6DECISION LINKPL @ 3.9 | 12:26 (429m pre) |
| R4 20:10 | #8 ABSOLUTE HONOUR (3.6) | 8-2-10 | #10PRECISION HOPEPL | #10PRECISION HOPEPL @ 4.2 | #10PRECISION HOPEPL @ 4.2 | #2SKY DEEPPL @ 4.7 | #10PRECISION HOPEPL @ 4.2 | #10PRECISION HOPEPL @ 3.3 | 12:26 (464m pre) |
| R5 20:40 | #8 GEORGIAN SIGMA (3.1) | 8-10-2 | #4SUPERB KING✗ | #4SUPERB KING✗ @ 3.2 | #4SUPERB KING✗ @ 3.2 | #4SUPERB KING✗ @ 3.2 | #4SUPERB KING✗ @ 3.2 | #4SUPERB KING✗ @ 2.5 | 12:26 (494m pre) |
| R6 21:10 | #10 KWAI CHUNG TALENTS (3.1) | 10-4-5 | #9NO OTHER CHOICE✗ | #9NO OTHER CHOICE✗ @ 2.8 | #9NO OTHER CHOICE✗ @ 2.8 | #9NO OTHER CHOICE✗ @ 2.8 | #9NO OTHER CHOICE✗ @ 2.8 | #9NO OTHER CHOICE✗ @ 2.1 | 12:26 (524m pre) |
| R7 21:45 | #9 BRIGHT DAY (7.2) | 9-5-10 | #5TARGET AUDIENCEPL | #5TARGET AUDIENCEPL @ 4.5 | #5TARGET AUDIENCEPL @ 4.5 | #9BRIGHT DAYWIN @ 10 | #11DARYL FLASH✗ @ 4.4 | #11DARYL FLASH✗ @ 3.9 | 12:26 (559m pre) |
| R8 22:15 | #9 AUDACIOUS PURSUIT (10) | 9-8-3 | #2POPE CODY✗ | #2POPE CODY✗ @ 6.5 | #2POPE CODY✗ @ 6.5 | #2POPE CODY✗ @ 6.5 | #1DAZZLING FIT✗ @ 4.4 | #2POPE CODY✗ @ 3 | 12:26 (589m pre) |
| R9 22:50 | #7 THE HEIR (2) | 7-9-1 | #7THE HEIRWIN | #7THE HEIRWIN @ 4 | #7THE HEIRWIN @ 4 | #7THE HEIRWIN @ 4 | #7THE HEIRWIN @ 4 | #7THE HEIRWIN @ 2 | 12:26 (624m pre) |
Per preset: place & exotic hits
Top1 = model's #1 combination; in3 = actual combination within the model's first three. Top-3 placed = how many of the three picks per race finished 1st–3rd (out of races × 3).
| Preset | Win top1 | Winner in top3 | Top1 placed | Top-3 placed | QIN 1/3 | FCT 1/3 | TCE 1/3 | F4 1/3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morning brief (form only, no odds) | 2/9 (22.2%) | 6/9 (66.7%) | 4/9 (44.4%) | 15/27 (55.6%) | 1/9 / 3/9 | 0/9 / 3/9 | 0/9 / 1/9 | 0/9 / 1/9 |
| Hybrid V2 @ last pre-jump snapshot | 2/9 (22.2%) | 6/9 (66.7%) | 4/9 (44.4%) | 14/27 (51.9%) | 2/9 / 3/9 | 1/9 / 3/9 | 0/9 / 1/9 | 1/9 / 1/9 |
| Hybrid V1 @ last pre-jump snapshot | 2/9 (22.2%) | 6/9 (66.7%) | 4/9 (44.4%) | 14/27 (51.9%) | 1/9 / 3/9 | 0/9 / 3/9 | 0/9 / 1/9 | 0/9 / 1/9 |
| Hybrid V3 (shadow, real J/T point-in-time) @ last pre-jump snapshot | 3/9 (33.3%) | 6/9 (66.7%) | 4/9 (44.4%) | 14/27 (51.9%) | 2/9 / 3/9 | 2/9 / 3/9 | 0/9 / 1/9 | 0/9 / 1/9 |
| Favourite — last pre-jump snapshot | 1/9 (11.1%) | 5/9 (55.6%) | 2/9 (22.2%) | 12/27 (44.4%) | 0/9 / 2/9 | 0/9 / 0/9 | 0/9 / 0/9 | 0/9 / 0/9 |
| Favourite — official SP | 1/9 (11.1%) | 6/9 (66.7%) | 3/9 (33.3%) | 14/27 (51.9%) | 1/9 / 4/9 | 0/9 / 2/9 | 0/9 / 1/9 | 0/9 / 2/9 |
| Market-lean @ last pre-jump snapshot | 1/9 (11.1%) | 5/9 (55.6%) | 3/9 (33.3%) | 14/27 (51.9%) | 0/9 / 1/9 | 0/9 / 1/9 | 0/9 / 0/9 | 0/9 / 1/9 |
| v2 form + pace @ last pre-jump snapshot | 3/9 (33.3%) | 7/9 (77.8%) | 4/9 (44.4%) | 12/27 (44.4%) | 2/9 / 3/9 | 2/9 / 3/9 | 0/9 / 1/9 | 0/9 / 1/9 |
Hypothetical return — flat HK$10 on each top pick
Purely hypothetical, using official HKJC dividends per HK$10. Not betting advice and not indicative of future results. One meeting is a tiny, high-variance sample.
| Preset | Staked | Win return | Win ROI | Place return | Place ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morning brief (form only, no odds) | $90 | $69.5 | -22.8% | $65.5 | -27.2% |
| Hybrid V2 @ last pre-jump snapshot | $90 | $69.5 | -22.8% | $65.5 | -27.2% |
| Hybrid V1 @ last pre-jump snapshot | $90 | $69.5 | -22.8% | $65.5 | -27.2% |
| Hybrid V3 (shadow, real J/T point-in-time) @ last pre-jump snapshot | $90 | $142 | 57.8% | $72.5 | -19.4% |
| Favourite — last pre-jump snapshot | $90 | $20.5 | -77.2% | $26.5 | -70.6% |
| Favourite — official SP | $90 | $20.5 | -77.2% | $43 | -52.2% |
| Market-lean @ last pre-jump snapshot | $90 | $20.5 | -77.2% | $47.5 | -47.2% |
| v2 form + pace @ last pre-jump snapshot | $90 | $142 | 57.8% | $69.5 | -22.8% |
走勢盤 study (stored snapshots only)
open = morning snapshot (~09:19 HKT); lastPre = latest stored snapshot before post time; anyTime = lowest odds in any stored pre-post snapshot; SP = official results Win Odds (SP-basis is hindsight — not knowable before the jump)
| Group | Runners | Win rate | Place rate | Hyp. win return ($10 each) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All runners with a morning price | 107 | 9/107 (8.4%) | 27/107 (25.2%) | $489 / $1070 |
| Shortened ≥25% (open → last pre-jump snapshot) | 0 | 0/0 (0.0%) | 0/0 (0.0%) | $0 / $0 |
| Shortened ≥25% at any stored pre-race snapshot | 0 | 0/0 (0.0%) | 0/0 (0.0%) | $0 / $0 |
| Steady (neither) | 107 | 9/107 (8.4%) | 27/107 (25.2%) | $489 / $1070 |
| Drifted ≥50% (open → last pre-jump snapshot) | 0 | 0/0 (0.0%) | 0/0 (0.0%) | $0 / $0 |
| Shortened ≥25% open → SP (hindsight) | 21 | 7/21 (33.3%) | 9/21 (42.9%) | $409 / $210 |
| Drifted ≥50% open → SP (hindsight) | 41 | 0/41 (0.0%) | 4/41 (9.8%) | $0 / $410 |
Open → last pre-jump snapshot: shortened ≥25%
None
Shortened ≥25% at any stored pre-race snapshot (by low)
None
Open → SP: shortened ≥25% (hindsight)
| R / No. | Horse | Open | Low (pre) | Last pre | SP | Move | Finish |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R5 #12 | MAPOGO 馬運高 | 22 | 22 12:26 | 22 | 7.6 | -65% | 8 |
| R4 #8 | ABSOLUTE HONOUR 超開心 | 9.9 | 9.9 12:26 | 9.9 | 3.6 | -64% | 1 |
| R2 #4 | WINNING MONEY 紅錢到 | 12 | 12 12:26 | 12 | 5.4 | -55% | 7 |
| R3 #8 | LUCK IS BACK 金駒永騰 | 12 | 12 12:26 | 12 | 5.4 | -55% | 4 |
| R8 #2 | POPE CODY 幸運派彩 | 6.5 | 6.5 12:26 | 6.5 | 3 | -54% | 4 |
| R7 #8 | MATTERS MOST 關鍵所在 | 22 | 22 12:26 | 22 | 11 | -50% | 12 |
| R9 #7 | THE HEIR 星運少爵 | 4 | 4 12:26 | 4 | 2 | -50% | 1 |
| R7 #12 | YOUNG ARROW 競駿非凡 | 16 | 16 12:26 | 16 | 8.2 | -49% | 10 |
| R3 #12 | GLORIOUS ST PAUL'S 保羅輝煌 | 49 | 49 12:26 | 49 | 27 | -45% | 9 |
| R8 #9 | AUDACIOUS PURSUIT 大千雄心 | 17 | 17 12:26 | 17 | 10 | -41% | 1 |
| R3 #6 | DECISION LINK 有情有義 | 6.4 | 6.4 12:26 | 6.4 | 3.9 | -39% | 2 |
| R9 #9 | LIVE WIRE 烈焰光芒 | 10 | 10 12:26 | 10 | 6.2 | -38% | 2 |
| R6 #10 | KWAI CHUNG TALENTS 頑童 | 4.9 | 4.9 12:26 | 4.9 | 3.1 | -37% | 1 |
| R3 #2 | RAGGA BOMB 佳登 | 22 | 22 12:26 | 22 | 15 | -32% | 12 |
| R2 #7 | NEW POWER 新力 | 14 | 14 12:26 | 14 | 9.9 | -29% | 1 |
| R1 #11 | PERFECT PAIRING 幸運同行 | 14 | 14 12:26 | 14 | 10 | -29% | 4 |
| R7 #9 | BRIGHT DAY 朗日自強 | 10 | 10 12:26 | 10 | 7.2 | -28% | 1 |
| R1 #2 | SHARPEN BRIGHT 一支箭 | 15 | 15 12:26 | 15 | 11 | -27% | 11 |
| R1 #9 | GOLDEN FORTUNE 連連好運 | 6.4 | 6.4 12:26 | 6.4 | 4.7 | -27% | 1 |
| R2 #2 | LUCKY MCQUEEN 幸運愉快 | 8 | 8 12:26 | 8 | 5.9 | -26% | 4 |
| R6 #9 | NO OTHER CHOICE 後無來者 | 2.8 | 2.8 12:26 | 2.8 | 2.1 | -25% | 12 |
Late moves after the last stored snapshot (SP ÷ last pre ≤0.75 or ≥1.5)
| R / No. | Horse | Open | Low (pre) | Last pre | SP | SP vs pre | Finish |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R5 #12 | MAPOGO 馬運高 | 22 | 22 12:26 | 22 | 7.6 | -65% | 8 |
| R4 #8 | ABSOLUTE HONOUR 超開心 | 9.9 | 9.9 12:26 | 9.9 | 3.6 | -64% | 1 |
| R2 #4 | WINNING MONEY 紅錢到 | 12 | 12 12:26 | 12 | 5.4 | -55% | 7 |
| R3 #8 | LUCK IS BACK 金駒永騰 | 12 | 12 12:26 | 12 | 5.4 | -55% | 4 |
| R8 #2 | POPE CODY 幸運派彩 | 6.5 | 6.5 12:26 | 6.5 | 3 | -54% | 4 |
| R7 #8 | MATTERS MOST 關鍵所在 | 22 | 22 12:26 | 22 | 11 | -50% | 12 |
| R9 #7 | THE HEIR 星運少爵 | 4 | 4 12:26 | 4 | 2 | -50% | 1 |
| R7 #12 | YOUNG ARROW 競駿非凡 | 16 | 16 12:26 | 16 | 8.2 | -49% | 10 |
| R3 #12 | GLORIOUS ST PAUL'S 保羅輝煌 | 49 | 49 12:26 | 49 | 27 | -45% | 9 |
| R8 #9 | AUDACIOUS PURSUIT 大千雄心 | 17 | 17 12:26 | 17 | 10 | -41% | 1 |
| R3 #6 | DECISION LINK 有情有義 | 6.4 | 6.4 12:26 | 6.4 | 3.9 | -39% | 2 |
| R9 #9 | LIVE WIRE 烈焰光芒 | 10 | 10 12:26 | 10 | 6.2 | -38% | 2 |
| R6 #10 | KWAI CHUNG TALENTS 頑童 | 4.9 | 4.9 12:26 | 4.9 | 3.1 | -37% | 1 |
| R3 #2 | RAGGA BOMB 佳登 | 22 | 22 12:26 | 22 | 15 | -32% | 12 |
| R2 #7 | NEW POWER 新力 | 14 | 14 12:26 | 14 | 9.9 | -29% | 1 |
| R1 #11 | PERFECT PAIRING 幸運同行 | 14 | 14 12:26 | 14 | 10 | -29% | 4 |
| R7 #9 | BRIGHT DAY 朗日自強 | 10 | 10 12:26 | 10 | 7.2 | -28% | 1 |
| R1 #2 | SHARPEN BRIGHT 一支箭 | 15 | 15 12:26 | 15 | 11 | -27% | 11 |
| R1 #9 | GOLDEN FORTUNE 連連好運 | 6.4 | 6.4 12:26 | 6.4 | 4.7 | -27% | 1 |
| R2 #2 | LUCKY MCQUEEN 幸運愉快 | 8 | 8 12:26 | 8 | 5.9 | -26% | 4 |
| R6 #3 | STARRY SHOW 星威心得 | 20 | 20 12:26 | 20 | 30 | 50% | 8 |
| R8 #6 | CALL ME TOPSEED 傲視同群 | 28 | 28 12:26 | 28 | 42 | 50% | 10 |
| R1 #3 | GRAND TURBO 鴻圖大展 | 9.8 | 9.8 12:26 | 9.8 | 15 | 53% | 6 |
| R9 #2 | MOTOR 馬達 | 9.1 | 9.1 12:26 | 9.1 | 14 | 54% | 8 |
| R7 #7 | SAVVY BRILLIANT 耀寶 | 16 | 16 12:26 | 16 | 25 | 56% | 7 |
| R8 #4 | DO YOU JUST 嘉應勇將 | 5.6 | 5.6 12:26 | 5.6 | 8.8 | 57% | 12 |
| R7 #3 | JUBILANT WINNER 快活英雄 | 17 | 17 12:26 | 17 | 27 | 59% | 11 |
| R6 #6 | KING OBERON 勝多多 | 13 | 13 12:26 | 13 | 21 | 62% | 4 |
| R6 #4 | UNSTOPPAPLE 銳不可當 | 9.9 | 9.9 12:26 | 9.9 | 16 | 62% | 2 |
| R2 #12 | TACTICAL COMMAND 智勝攻略 | 23 | 23 12:26 | 23 | 38 | 65% | 11 |
| R3 #10 | FORTUNE STAR 康昌之星 | 3.6 | 3.6 12:26 | 3.6 | 6 | 67% | 5 |
| R3 #3 | CLASS 大文豪 | 8.3 | 8.3 12:26 | 8.3 | 14 | 69% | 3 |
| R4 #5 | JUMBO STEPS 晉步贏 | 14 | 14 12:26 | 14 | 24 | 71% | 8 |
| R5 #7 | BRILLIANT TURN 哥得寶 | 18 | 18 12:26 | 18 | 31 | 72% | 4 |
| R4 #4 | TAKE ACTION 先到先得 | 11 | 11 12:26 | 11 | 19 | 73% | 12 |
| R9 #4 | AMAZING KID 福星小子 | 22 | 22 12:26 | 22 | 39 | 77% | 9 |
| R5 #1 | GRAND NOVA 鴻圖新星 | 10 | 10 12:26 | 10 | 18 | 80% | 7 |
| R5 #11 | JACKSON HABIT 杰遜仔 | 20 | 20 12:26 | 20 | 38 | 90% | 11 |
| R2 #11 | SMILING CHAMPION 威威神駒 | 44 | 44 12:26 | 44 | 84 | 91% | 8 |
| R6 #2 | GRIT SPIRIT 龍虎精神 | 11 | 11 12:26 | 11 | 21 | 91% | 5 |
| R1 #7 | SMILING ONE 一風雲 | 43 | 43 12:26 | 43 | 83 | 93% | 12 |
| R9 #3 | GUSTOSISIMO 得道猴王 | 16 | 16 12:26 | 16 | 32 | 100% | 11 |
| R8 #5 | RUN RUN SMART 自動自覺 | 17 | 17 12:26 | 17 | 35 | 106% | 11 |
| R7 #4 | LUCKY PLANET 幸運星球 | 16 | 16 12:26 | 16 | 33 | 106% | 8 |
| R2 #1 | GLORIOUS DYNASTY 本領多好 | 15 | 15 12:26 | 15 | 31 | 107% | 10 |
| R5 #2 | MASTER CHAMPION 長勝金剛 | 34 | 34 12:26 | 34 | 71 | 109% | 3 |
| R4 #1 | VIVA GRACIOUSNESS 爆笑 | 6.5 | 6.5 12:26 | 6.5 | 14 | 115% | 11 |
| R4 #3 | STURDY RUBY 紅海勁 | 18 | 18 12:26 | 18 | 39 | 117% | 6 |
| R5 #9 | GOLDEN ACE 赤兔再世 | 7.3 | 7.3 12:26 | 7.3 | 16 | 119% | 6 |
| R4 #6 | BLAZING METEOR 火流星 | 19 | 19 12:26 | 19 | 42 | 121% | 10 |
| R6 #7 | POET'S REIGN 文采風流 | 13 | 13 12:26 | 13 | 30 | 131% | 10 |
| R9 #12 | THUNDER ACTION 勁駿騰飛 | 15 | 15 12:26 | 15 | 35 | 133% | 10 |
| R7 #6 | POWER KOEPP 電源之駒 | 20 | 20 12:26 | 20 | 48 | 140% | 6 |
| R6 #12 | MAJESTIC DELIGHT 首駿 | 33 | 33 12:26 | 33 | 80 | 142% | 9 |
| R4 #7 | MISSION GIANT 妙算強人 | 47 | 47 12:26 | 47 | 114 | 143% | 7 |
| R6 #1 | HEALTHY HEALTHY 添開心 | 19 | 19 12:26 | 19 | 47 | 147% | 6 |
| R2 #3 | VIGOR HAPPINESS 銳喜 | 38 | 38 12:26 | 38 | 114 | 200% | 12 |
| R6 #11 | VIEW OF COSMOS 觀萬象 | 44 | 44 12:26 | 44 | 139 | 216% | 11 |
| R5 #3 | COPPER CORE 友駿同心 | 30 | 30 12:26 | 30 | 118 | 293% | 9 |
| R9 #10 | TRIPLE FORTUNE 發發發 | 20 | 20 12:26 | 20 | 80 | 300% | 5 |
| R8 #8 | RISING PHOENIX 金滙千帥 | 16 | 16 12:26 | 16 | 66 | 313% | 2 |
Open → last pre-jump snapshot: drifted ≥50%
None
Data gaps
- R1: last stored pre-jump snapshot was 369 min before post (12:26 HKT) — late market moves not captured
- R2: last stored pre-jump snapshot was 399 min before post (12:26 HKT) — late market moves not captured
- R3: last stored pre-jump snapshot was 429 min before post (12:26 HKT) — late market moves not captured
- R4: last stored pre-jump snapshot was 464 min before post (12:26 HKT) — late market moves not captured
- R5: last stored pre-jump snapshot was 494 min before post (12:26 HKT) — late market moves not captured
- R6: last stored pre-jump snapshot was 524 min before post (12:26 HKT) — late market moves not captured
- R7: last stored pre-jump snapshot was 559 min before post (12:26 HKT) — late market moves not captured
- R8: last stored pre-jump snapshot was 589 min before post (12:26 HKT) — late market moves not captured
- R9: last stored pre-jump snapshot was 624 min before post (12:26 HKT) — late market moves not captured
Summary metrics
Detailed exotic metrics below are for the hybridV2 (live primary) preset when available, else hybrid V1.
Win — top pick
2/9 (22.2%)
Win — in top 3 picks
6/9 (66.7%)
Top pick placed
4/9 (44.4%)
Any top-3 pick placed
8/9 (88.9%)
Favourite won (SP)
1/9 (11.1%)
Quinella top 1
2/9 (22.2%)
Quinella in top 3
3/9 (33.3%)
Forecast top 1
1/9 (11.1%)
Forecast in top 3
3/9 (33.3%)
Tierce top 1
0/9 (0.0%)
Tierce in top 3
1/9 (11.1%)
First 4 top 1
1/9 (11.1%)
First 4 in top 3
1/9 (11.1%)
By meeting
2026-10-07 · Happy Valley
9 races
- Win — top pick: 2/9 (22.2%)
- Win — in top 3 picks: 6/9 (66.7%)
- Top pick placed: 4/9 (44.4%)
- Favourite won (SP): 1/9 (11.1%)
Per-race results
| Date | Venue | R | Race | Actual | Model top 3 | Hybrid vs actual | Hits | QIN / FCT / TCE / F4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-07 | Happy Valley | 1 | BEDFORD HANDICAP | 9-4-8 | 1 CAN'T GO WONG 10.4%9 GOLDEN FORTUNE 9.2%3 GRAND TURBO 9.1% | 1-9-4 vs 9-4-8 W1W3Pl | W1W3PlQINFCTTCEF4 | QIN 1-9 vs 4-9 FCT 1-9 vs 9-4 TCE 1-9-3 vs 9-4-8 F4 1-3-4-9 vs 4-8-9-11 |
| 2026-10-07 | Happy Valley | 2 | CHEUNG FAT HANDICAP | 7-5-9 | 10 LOVING VIBES 11.9%5 WORLD HERO 8.8%6 HAYDAY 8.7% | 10-2-6 vs 7-5-9 W1W3Pl | W1W3PlQINFCTTCEF4 | QIN 5-10 vs 5-7 FCT 10-5 vs 7-5 TCE 10-5-6 vs 7-5-9 F4 5-6-7-10 vs 2-5-7-9 |
| 2026-10-07 | Happy Valley | 3 | FAT TSEUNG HANDICAP | 4-6-3 | 4 SUNDAY'S SERENADE 9.8%6 DECISION LINK 9.5%10 FORTUNE STAR 9.3% | 4-10-6 vs 4-6-3 W1W3Pl | W1W3PlQINFCTTCEF4 | QIN 4-6 vs 4-6 FCT 4-6 vs 4-6 TCE 4-6-10 vs 4-6-3 F4 4-5-6-10 vs 3-4-6-8 |
| 2026-10-07 | Happy Valley | 4 | FAT TSEUNG HANDICAP | 8-2-10 | 10 PRECISION HOPE 10.5%2 SKY DEEP 9.8%12 PRESTIGE RICKY 9.6% | 10-2-12 vs 8-2-10 W1W3Pl | W1W3PlQINFCTTCEF4 | QIN 2-10 vs 2-8 FCT 10-2 vs 8-2 TCE 10-2-12 vs 8-2-10 F4 2-4-10-12 vs 2-8-10-11 |
| 2026-10-07 | Happy Valley | 5 | THE CHINESE GENERAL CHAMBER OF COMMERCE CUP (HANDICAP) | 8-10-2 | 4 SUPERB KING 10.7%8 GEORGIAN SIGMA 9.8%9 GOLDEN ACE 9.6% | 4-8-9 vs 8-10-2 W1W3Pl | W1W3PlQINFCTTCEF4 | QIN 4-8 vs 8-10 FCT 4-8 vs 8-10 TCE 4-8-9 vs 8-10-2 F4 1-4-8-9 vs 2-7-8-10 |
| 2026-10-07 | Happy Valley | 6 | CHEUNG FAT HANDICAP | 10-4-5 | 9 NO OTHER CHOICE 10.8%10 KWAI CHUNG TALENTS 9.9%5 CALIFORNIA BAY 9.0% | 9-10-5 vs 10-4-5 W1W3Pl | W1W3PlQINFCTTCEF4 | QIN 9-10 vs 4-10 FCT 9-10 vs 10-4 TCE 9-10-5 vs 10-4-5 F4 5-6-9-10 vs 4-5-6-10 |
| 2026-10-07 | Happy Valley | 7 | YIP FAT HANDICAP | 9-5-10 | 5 TARGET AUDIENCE 9.7%9 BRIGHT DAY 9.6%2 FLYING WROTE 9.2% | 5-9-2 vs 9-5-10 W1W3Pl | W1W3PlQINFCTTCEF4 | QIN 5-9 vs 5-9 FCT 5-9 vs 9-5 TCE 5-9-2 vs 9-5-10 F4 2-5-9-11 vs 1-5-9-10 |
| 2026-10-07 | Happy Valley | 8 | HING FAT HANDICAP | 9-8-3 | 2 POPE CODY 9.9%4 DO YOU JUST 9.1%1 DAZZLING FIT 9.0% | 2-1-4 vs 9-8-3 W1W3Pl | W1W3PlQINFCTTCEF4 | QIN 2-4 vs 8-9 FCT 2-4 vs 9-8 TCE 2-4-1 vs 9-8-3 F4 1-2-4-10 vs 2-3-8-9 |
| 2026-10-07 | Happy Valley | 9 | YIP FAT HANDICAP | 7-9-1 | 7 THE HEIR 12.2%1 AURIO 10.2%9 LIVE WIRE 9.5% | 7-1-9 vs 7-9-1 W1W3Pl | W1W3PlQINFCTTCEF4 | QIN 1-7 vs 7-9 FCT 7-1 vs 7-9 TCE 7-1-9 vs 7-9-1 F4 1-7-9-11 vs 1-7-9-11 |
- Analysis only — not betting advice. Hypothetical ROI uses official HKJC dividends per HK$10.
- Official results: racing.hkjc.com LocalResults (EN + 繁中); fetched 2026-10-08T02:24:18.759Z.
- Last pre-jump snapshot per race: R1 12:26 (369m pre-post); R2 12:26 (399m pre-post); R3 12:26 (429m pre-post); R4 12:26 (464m pre-post); R5 12:26 (494m pre-post); R6 12:26 (524m pre-post); R7 12:26 (559m pre-post); R8 12:26 (589m pre-post); R9 12:26 (624m pre-post).
- Snapshots captured at/after post time are excluded from 'pre-jump' (they reflect closed pools ≈ SP).
- Morning brief ranking: data/predictions/2026-10-07-hv-morning.json (scratched runners removed, probabilities renormalised).
- Exotic hits: top1 = model's #1 combination; top3 = actual combination within model's first three combinations (same derivation as race pages).
- R1: last stored pre-jump snapshot was 369 min before post (12:26 HKT) — late market moves not captured
- R2: last stored pre-jump snapshot was 399 min before post (12:26 HKT) — late market moves not captured
- R3: last stored pre-jump snapshot was 429 min before post (12:26 HKT) — late market moves not captured
- R4: last stored pre-jump snapshot was 464 min before post (12:26 HKT) — late market moves not captured
- R5: last stored pre-jump snapshot was 494 min before post (12:26 HKT) — late market moves not captured
- R6: last stored pre-jump snapshot was 524 min before post (12:26 HKT) — late market moves not captured
- R7: last stored pre-jump snapshot was 559 min before post (12:26 HKT) — late market moves not captured
- R8: last stored pre-jump snapshot was 589 min before post (12:26 HKT) — late market moves not captured
- R9: last stored pre-jump snapshot was 624 min before post (12:26 HKT) — late market moves not captured
4 Oct 2026 Sha Tin (11 races) — pre-race snapshots vs results
Single-meeting backtest. Morning brief = form-only hybrid published before pools opened (no odds). hybridV2 / hybrid (V1) re-scored with the last stored WIN snapshot before each race's post time (open = morning snapshot for 走勢盤). Favourite baselines use the last pre-race snapshot and the official SP. ROI rows are hypothetical flat HK$10 stakes using official dividends.
Odds mode: last pre-jump WIN snapshot (hybrid presets); SP & morning-open as sensitivity
Preset comparison (pre-race snapshot odds + form)
Same 11 races: morning brief (no odds), hybrid V2 / V1 at the last pre-jump snapshot, and favourite baselines (last snapshot and SP).
| Preset | Win — top pick | Win — in top 3 picks | Top pick placed | Any top-3 pick placed |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morning brief (form only, no odds) | 1/11 (9.1%) | 6/11 (54.5%) | 8/11 (72.7%) | 10/11 (90.9%) |
| Hybrid V2 @ last pre-jump snapshotLive | 2/11 (18.2%) | 4/11 (36.4%) | 7/11 (63.6%) | 9/11 (81.8%) |
| Hybrid V1 @ last pre-jump snapshot | 2/11 (18.2%) | 4/11 (36.4%) | 7/11 (63.6%) | 8/11 (72.7%) |
| Hybrid V3 (shadow, real J/T point-in-time) @ last pre-jump snapshot | 2/11 (18.2%) | 3/11 (27.3%) | 7/11 (63.6%) | 8/11 (72.7%) |
| v2 form + pace @ last pre-jump snapshot | 2/11 (18.2%) | 3/11 (27.3%) | 9/11 (81.8%) | 10/11 (90.9%) |
| Market-lean @ last pre-jump snapshot | 2/11 (18.2%) | 3/11 (27.3%) | 7/11 (63.6%) | 8/11 (72.7%) |
| Favourite — last pre-jump snapshot | 2/11 (18.2%) | 3/11 (27.3%) | 7/11 (63.6%) | 8/11 (72.7%) |
| Favourite — official SP | 1/11 (9.1%) | 4/11 (36.4%) | 7/11 (63.6%) | 10/11 (90.9%) |
Pre-race vs SP
Pre-race: stored snapshots (morning open + last snapshot before each post time); SP from official results
Odds-source sensitivity (hybrid presets)
| Odds source | Win — top pick | Win — in top 3 picks | Top pick placed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hybrid V2 · Last pre-race snap | 2/11 (18.2%) | 4/11 (36.4%) | 7/11 (63.6%) |
| Hybrid V2 · Morning / open | 2/11 (18.2%) | 4/11 (36.4%) | 7/11 (63.6%) |
| Hybrid V2 · SP (results) | 1/11 (9.1%) | 5/11 (45.5%) | 7/11 (63.6%) |
| Hybrid V1 · Last pre-race snap | 2/11 (18.2%) | 4/11 (36.4%) | 7/11 (63.6%) |
| Hybrid V1 · Morning / open | 2/11 (18.2%) | 4/11 (36.4%) | 7/11 (63.6%) |
| Hybrid V1 · SP (results) | 1/11 (9.1%) | 4/11 (36.4%) | 7/11 (63.6%) |
Per race: winner vs each preset's top pick
WIN = top pick won; PL = top pick placed (1st–3rd); ✗ = unplaced. Odds shown are those the preset used (morning brief had none).
| R | Winner (SP) | 1-2-3 | Morning brief | Hybrid V1 | Hybrid V2 | Hybrid V3 (shadow) | Fav (last snap) | Fav (SP) | Last snap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R1 12:30 | #1 DOUBLE BINGO (11) | 1-14-12 | #12ORIENTAL SURPRISEPL | #14HAPPYDEARHAPPYDEERPL @ 3.4 | #14HAPPYDEARHAPPYDEERPL @ 3.4 | #14HAPPYDEARHAPPYDEERPL @ 3.4 | #14HAPPYDEARHAPPYDEERPL @ 3.4 | #14HAPPYDEARHAPPYDEERPL @ 3.1 | 09:13 (197m pre) |
| R2 13:00 | #13 KOL (1.9) | 13-2-3 | #13KOLWIN | #13KOLWIN @ 2.6 | #13KOLWIN @ 2.6 | #13KOLWIN @ 2.6 | #13KOLWIN @ 2.6 | #13KOLWIN @ 1.9 | 09:13 (227m pre) |
| R3 13:30 | #6 DEFINITIVE (8.7) | 6-2-7 | #2TALENTS AMBITIONPL | #2TALENTS AMBITIONPL @ 2.3 | #2TALENTS AMBITIONPL @ 2.3 | #2TALENTS AMBITIONPL @ 2.3 | #2TALENTS AMBITIONPL @ 2.3 | #7SKY VINOPL @ 2.9 | 09:13 (257m pre) |
| R4 14:00 | #12 TEAM HAPPY (9.8) | 12-14-8 | #8THE ALL ROUNDERPL | #8THE ALL ROUNDERPL @ 2.8 | #8THE ALL ROUNDERPL @ 2.8 | #8THE ALL ROUNDERPL @ 2.8 | #8THE ALL ROUNDERPL @ 2.8 | #8THE ALL ROUNDERPL @ 3.5 | 09:13 (287m pre) |
| R5 14:30 | #5 SUPREME AGILITY (14) | 5-8-2 | #7CHILL KAKA✗ | #7CHILL KAKA✗ @ 4.7 | #7CHILL KAKA✗ @ 4.7 | #7CHILL KAKA✗ @ 4.7 | #7CHILL KAKA✗ @ 4.7 | #4VIVACIOUS WIN✗ @ 5.3 | 09:13 (317m pre) |
| R6 15:00 | #6 MR COOL (3.5) | 6-2-9 | #2GRAND PATCHPL | #2GRAND PATCHPL @ 2.6 | #2GRAND PATCHPL @ 2.6 | #2GRAND PATCHPL @ 2.6 | #2GRAND PATCHPL @ 2.6 | #2GRAND PATCHPL @ 2.7 | 09:13 (347m pre) |
| R7 15:35 | #3 LADY'S LOVE (5.1) | 3-14-9 | #14QUICK CONTRIBUTIONPL | #3LADY'S LOVEWIN @ 4.3 | #3LADY'S LOVEWIN @ 4.3 | #3LADY'S LOVEWIN @ 4.3 | #3LADY'S LOVEWIN @ 4.3 | #14QUICK CONTRIBUTIONPL @ 3.8 | 09:13 (382m pre) |
| R8 16:05 | #8 BIG RETURN (4.8) | 8-10-11 | #5FLOW WATER FLOW✗ | #5FLOW WATER FLOW✗ @ 2.3 | #5FLOW WATER FLOW✗ @ 2.3 | #5FLOW WATER FLOW✗ @ 2.3 | #5FLOW WATER FLOW✗ @ 2.3 | #5FLOW WATER FLOW✗ @ 2.4 | 09:13 (412m pre) |
| R9 16:35 | #10 ALL ROUND WINNER (11) | 10-5-1 | #12QUANTUM LEGEND✗ | #12QUANTUM LEGEND✗ @ 5.6 | #12QUANTUM LEGEND✗ @ 5.6 | #12QUANTUM LEGEND✗ @ 5.6 | #12QUANTUM LEGEND✗ @ 5.6 | #12QUANTUM LEGEND✗ @ 3 | 09:13 (442m pre) |
| R10 17:10 | #1 HORSEPOWER (18) | 1-7-14 | #14LAHOREPL | #8MICKLEY✗ @ 8.4 | #8MICKLEY✗ @ 8.4 | #2ALPHA STRIKE✗ @ 9 | #6SMART OINK✗ @ 7.6 | #4CELESTIAL HERO✗ @ 5.4 | 09:13 (477m pre) |
| R11 17:45 | #5 BUNTA BABY (39) | 5-2-3 | #2SOLID STATEPL | #2SOLID STATEPL @ 2.2 | #2SOLID STATEPL @ 2.2 | #2SOLID STATEPL @ 2.2 | #2SOLID STATEPL @ 2.2 | #2SOLID STATEPL @ 2.1 | 09:13 (512m pre) |
Per preset: place & exotic hits
Top1 = model's #1 combination; in3 = actual combination within the model's first three. Top-3 placed = how many of the three picks per race finished 1st–3rd (out of races × 3).
| Preset | Win top1 | Winner in top3 | Top1 placed | Top-3 placed | QIN 1/3 | FCT 1/3 | TCE 1/3 | F4 1/3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morning brief (form only, no odds) | 1/11 (9.1%) | 6/11 (54.5%) | 8/11 (72.7%) | 17/33 (51.5%) | 2/11 / 4/11 | 0/11 / 2/11 | 0/11 / 0/11 | 1/11 / 1/11 |
| Hybrid V2 @ last pre-jump snapshot | 2/11 (18.2%) | 4/11 (36.4%) | 7/11 (63.6%) | 14/33 (42.4%) | 2/11 / 4/11 | 1/11 / 2/11 | 0/11 / 0/11 | 0/11 / 1/11 |
| Hybrid V1 @ last pre-jump snapshot | 2/11 (18.2%) | 4/11 (36.4%) | 7/11 (63.6%) | 13/33 (39.4%) | 2/11 / 5/11 | 1/11 / 2/11 | 0/11 / 0/11 | 1/11 / 1/11 |
| Hybrid V3 (shadow, real J/T point-in-time) @ last pre-jump snapshot | 2/11 (18.2%) | 3/11 (27.3%) | 7/11 (63.6%) | 13/33 (39.4%) | 0/11 / 5/11 | 0/11 / 2/11 | 0/11 / 0/11 | 0/11 / 0/11 |
| Favourite — last pre-jump snapshot | 2/11 (18.2%) | 3/11 (27.3%) | 7/11 (63.6%) | 13/33 (39.4%) | 1/11 / 4/11 | 1/11 / 2/11 | 0/11 / 0/11 | 0/11 / 0/11 |
| Favourite — official SP | 1/11 (9.1%) | 4/11 (36.4%) | 7/11 (63.6%) | 17/33 (51.5%) | 2/11 / 3/11 | 1/11 / 2/11 | 1/11 / 1/11 | 1/11 / 1/11 |
| Market-lean @ last pre-jump snapshot | 2/11 (18.2%) | 3/11 (27.3%) | 7/11 (63.6%) | 13/33 (39.4%) | 1/11 / 4/11 | 1/11 / 2/11 | 0/11 / 0/11 | 0/11 / 0/11 |
| v2 form + pace @ last pre-jump snapshot | 2/11 (18.2%) | 3/11 (27.3%) | 9/11 (81.8%) | 15/33 (45.5%) | 2/11 / 3/11 | 1/11 / 2/11 | 0/11 / 0/11 | 1/11 / 1/11 |
Hypothetical return — flat HK$10 on each top pick
Purely hypothetical, using official HKJC dividends per HK$10. Not betting advice and not indicative of future results. One meeting is a tiny, high-variance sample.
| Preset | Staked | Win return | Win ROI | Place return | Place ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morning brief (form only, no odds) | $110 | $19.5 | -82.3% | $126.5 | 15% |
| Hybrid V2 @ last pre-jump snapshot | $110 | $70.5 | -35.9% | $108 | -1.8% |
| Hybrid V1 @ last pre-jump snapshot | $110 | $70.5 | -35.9% | $108 | -1.8% |
| Hybrid V3 (shadow, real J/T point-in-time) @ last pre-jump snapshot | $110 | $70.5 | -35.9% | $108 | -1.8% |
| Favourite — last pre-jump snapshot | $110 | $70.5 | -35.9% | $108 | -1.8% |
| Favourite — official SP | $110 | $19.5 | -82.3% | $101 | -8.2% |
| Market-lean @ last pre-jump snapshot | $110 | $70.5 | -35.9% | $108 | -1.8% |
| v2 form + pace @ last pre-jump snapshot | $110 | $55 | -50% | $148 | 34.5% |
走勢盤 study (stored snapshots only)
open = morning snapshot (~09:19 HKT); lastPre = latest stored snapshot before post time; anyTime = lowest odds in any stored pre-post snapshot; SP = official results Win Odds (SP-basis is hindsight — not knowable before the jump)
| Group | Runners | Win rate | Place rate | Hyp. win return ($10 each) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All runners with a morning price | 141 | 11/141 (7.8%) | 33/141 (23.4%) | $1292.5 / $1410 |
| Shortened ≥25% (open → last pre-jump snapshot) | 0 | 0/0 (0.0%) | 0/0 (0.0%) | $0 / $0 |
| Shortened ≥25% at any stored pre-race snapshot | 0 | 0/0 (0.0%) | 0/0 (0.0%) | $0 / $0 |
| Steady (neither) | 141 | 11/141 (7.8%) | 33/141 (23.4%) | $1292.5 / $1410 |
| Drifted ≥50% (open → last pre-jump snapshot) | 0 | 0/0 (0.0%) | 0/0 (0.0%) | $0 / $0 |
| Shortened ≥25% open → SP (hindsight) | 29 | 6/29 (20.7%) | 13/29 (44.8%) | $400.5 / $290 |
| Drifted ≥50% open → SP (hindsight) | 53 | 1/53 (1.9%) | 4/53 (7.5%) | $391.5 / $530 |
Open → last pre-jump snapshot: shortened ≥25%
None
Shortened ≥25% at any stored pre-race snapshot (by low)
None
Open → SP: shortened ≥25% (hindsight)
| R / No. | Horse | Open | Low (pre) | Last pre | SP | Move | Finish |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R10 #4 | CELESTIAL HERO 星月飛雲 | 17 | 17 09:13 | 17 | 5.4 | -68% | 8 |
| R8 #8 | BIG RETURN 大回報 | 13 | 13 09:13 | 13 | 4.8 | -63% | 1 |
| R4 #9 | COLOURFUL WINNER 多彩多姿 | 12 | 12 09:13 | 12 | 5 | -58% | 5 |
| R7 #12 | POLAR PATCH 北極之錶 | 12 | 12 09:13 | 12 | 5 | -58% | 6 |
| R4 #12 | TEAM HAPPY 添喜運 | 23 | 23 09:13 | 23 | 9.8 | -57% | 1 |
| R11 #10 | PACKING GLORY 包裝明將 | 9.6 | 9.6 09:13 | 9.6 | 4.4 | -54% | 5 |
| R7 #10 | NEXT FORTUNE 歷勝 | 31 | 31 09:13 | 31 | 16 | -48% | 13 |
| R3 #7 | SKY VINO 滿心星 | 5.6 | 5.6 09:13 | 5.6 | 2.9 | -48% | 3 |
| R5 #4 | VIVACIOUS WIN 隨緣得勝 | 10 | 10 09:13 | 10 | 5.3 | -47% | 10 |
| R9 #12 | QUANTUM LEGEND 量子力奇 | 5.6 | 5.6 09:13 | 5.6 | 3 | -46% | 6 |
| R6 #6 | MR COOL 紅衣醒目 | 6.5 | 6.5 09:13 | 6.5 | 3.5 | -46% | 1 |
| R10 #14 | LAHORE 拉合爾 | 12 | 12 09:13 | 12 | 6.7 | -44% | 3 |
| R8 #7 | KING EQUINE 勁無限 | 34 | 34 09:13 | 34 | 19 | -44% | 9 |
| R9 #10 | ALL ROUND WINNER 榮利雙收 | 19 | 19 09:13 | 19 | 11 | -42% | 1 |
| R11 #3 | LUCY IN THE SKY 鑽石星空 | 19 | 19 09:13 | 19 | 11 | -42% | 3 |
| R5 #9 | LEAPING STAR 飛躍星伴 | 26 | 26 09:13 | 26 | 16 | -38% | 7 |
| R5 #8 | FIREFOOT 風起雲湧 | 12 | 12 09:13 | 12 | 7.4 | -38% | 2 |
| R2 #10 | SHANDONG SPIRIT 傳承精神 | 33 | 33 09:13 | 33 | 21 | -36% | 8 |
| R6 #11 | TOP TO SKY 天比高 | 22 | 22 09:13 | 22 | 14 | -36% | 11 |
| R8 #4 | GLITTERING LEGEND 川河耀駒 | 13 | 13 09:13 | 13 | 8.4 | -35% | 8 |
| R4 #5 | MADE FOR LIFE 明亮光輝 | 26 | 26 09:13 | 26 | 17 | -35% | 4 |
| R2 #2 | WOLF COMING 狼來了 | 6.7 | 6.7 09:13 | 6.7 | 4.4 | -34% | 2 |
| R4 #11 | MY FLYING ANGEL 美神來 | 27 | 27 09:13 | 27 | 18 | -33% | 7 |
| R7 #14 | QUICK CONTRIBUTION 飛躍成就 | 5.6 | 5.6 09:13 | 5.6 | 3.8 | -32% | 2 |
| R3 #8 | LOCH TAY 將睿 | 6.8 | 6.8 09:13 | 6.8 | 4.9 | -28% | 4 |
| R3 #6 | DEFINITIVE 時時精準 | 12 | 12 09:13 | 12 | 8.7 | -28% | 1 |
| R2 #13 | KOL 鋁主角 | 2.6 | 2.6 09:13 | 2.6 | 1.9 | -27% | 1 |
| R10 #9 | CONGHUA GALAXY 從化之星 | 8.8 | 8.8 09:13 | 8.8 | 6.5 | -26% | 9 |
| R6 #9 | SHOTGUN 盛勢威楓 | 10 | 10 09:13 | 10 | 7.4 | -26% | 3 |
Late moves after the last stored snapshot (SP ÷ last pre ≤0.75 or ≥1.5)
| R / No. | Horse | Open | Low (pre) | Last pre | SP | SP vs pre | Finish |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R10 #4 | CELESTIAL HERO 星月飛雲 | 17 | 17 09:13 | 17 | 5.4 | -68% | 8 |
| R8 #8 | BIG RETURN 大回報 | 13 | 13 09:13 | 13 | 4.8 | -63% | 1 |
| R4 #9 | COLOURFUL WINNER 多彩多姿 | 12 | 12 09:13 | 12 | 5 | -58% | 5 |
| R7 #12 | POLAR PATCH 北極之錶 | 12 | 12 09:13 | 12 | 5 | -58% | 6 |
| R4 #12 | TEAM HAPPY 添喜運 | 23 | 23 09:13 | 23 | 9.8 | -57% | 1 |
| R11 #10 | PACKING GLORY 包裝明將 | 9.6 | 9.6 09:13 | 9.6 | 4.4 | -54% | 5 |
| R7 #10 | NEXT FORTUNE 歷勝 | 31 | 31 09:13 | 31 | 16 | -48% | 13 |
| R3 #7 | SKY VINO 滿心星 | 5.6 | 5.6 09:13 | 5.6 | 2.9 | -48% | 3 |
| R5 #4 | VIVACIOUS WIN 隨緣得勝 | 10 | 10 09:13 | 10 | 5.3 | -47% | 10 |
| R9 #12 | QUANTUM LEGEND 量子力奇 | 5.6 | 5.6 09:13 | 5.6 | 3 | -46% | 6 |
| R6 #6 | MR COOL 紅衣醒目 | 6.5 | 6.5 09:13 | 6.5 | 3.5 | -46% | 1 |
| R10 #14 | LAHORE 拉合爾 | 12 | 12 09:13 | 12 | 6.7 | -44% | 3 |
| R8 #7 | KING EQUINE 勁無限 | 34 | 34 09:13 | 34 | 19 | -44% | 9 |
| R9 #10 | ALL ROUND WINNER 榮利雙收 | 19 | 19 09:13 | 19 | 11 | -42% | 1 |
| R11 #3 | LUCY IN THE SKY 鑽石星空 | 19 | 19 09:13 | 19 | 11 | -42% | 3 |
| R5 #9 | LEAPING STAR 飛躍星伴 | 26 | 26 09:13 | 26 | 16 | -38% | 7 |
| R5 #8 | FIREFOOT 風起雲湧 | 12 | 12 09:13 | 12 | 7.4 | -38% | 2 |
| R2 #10 | SHANDONG SPIRIT 傳承精神 | 33 | 33 09:13 | 33 | 21 | -36% | 8 |
| R6 #11 | TOP TO SKY 天比高 | 22 | 22 09:13 | 22 | 14 | -36% | 11 |
| R8 #4 | GLITTERING LEGEND 川河耀駒 | 13 | 13 09:13 | 13 | 8.4 | -35% | 8 |
| R4 #5 | MADE FOR LIFE 明亮光輝 | 26 | 26 09:13 | 26 | 17 | -35% | 4 |
| R2 #2 | WOLF COMING 狼來了 | 6.7 | 6.7 09:13 | 6.7 | 4.4 | -34% | 2 |
| R4 #11 | MY FLYING ANGEL 美神來 | 27 | 27 09:13 | 27 | 18 | -33% | 7 |
| R7 #14 | QUICK CONTRIBUTION 飛躍成就 | 5.6 | 5.6 09:13 | 5.6 | 3.8 | -32% | 2 |
| R3 #8 | LOCH TAY 將睿 | 6.8 | 6.8 09:13 | 6.8 | 4.9 | -28% | 4 |
| R3 #6 | DEFINITIVE 時時精準 | 12 | 12 09:13 | 12 | 8.7 | -28% | 1 |
| R2 #13 | KOL 鋁主角 | 2.6 | 2.6 09:13 | 2.6 | 1.9 | -27% | 1 |
| R10 #9 | CONGHUA GALAXY 從化之星 | 8.8 | 8.8 09:13 | 8.8 | 6.5 | -26% | 9 |
| R6 #9 | SHOTGUN 盛勢威楓 | 10 | 10 09:13 | 10 | 7.4 | -26% | 3 |
| R3 #1 | CHANCHENG GLORY 禪勝輝煌 | 10 | 10 09:13 | 10 | 15 | 50% | 8 |
| R11 #14 | MASTER PAYMENT 支付之父 | 17 | 17 09:13 | 17 | 26 | 53% | 14 |
| R2 #14 | SAME TO YOU 有你有我 | 7.8 | 7.8 09:13 | 7.8 | 12 | 54% | 9 |
| R9 #2 | CORLEONE 相映紅 | 13 | 13 09:13 | 13 | 20 | 54% | 10 |
| R2 #1 | TEN LOVES 十分愛 | 50 | 50 09:13 | 50 | 78 | 56% | 10 |
| R8 #10 | FOREVER FOLKS 年年友福 | 14 | 14 09:13 | 14 | 22 | 57% | 2 |
| R5 #1 | GENERAL REDWOOD 上浦福旺 | 22 | 22 09:13 | 22 | 35 | 59% | 13 |
| R7 #8 | GOLDEN WIN 金運齊來 | 5.3 | 5.3 09:13 | 5.3 | 8.5 | 60% | 14 |
| R4 #3 | SEA DIAMOND 海鑽石 | 23 | 23 09:13 | 23 | 37 | 61% | 14 |
| R2 #5 | LEAN ERA 精益時代 | 16 | 16 09:13 | 16 | 26 | 63% | 13 |
| R2 #6 | HAPPY SPECIAL 幸福特約 | 15 | 15 09:13 | 15 | 25 | 67% | 4 |
| R3 #5 | AWESOME FLUKE 非惟僥倖 | 18 | 18 09:13 | 18 | 30 | 67% | 7 |
| R5 #13 | JOLTIN 孤風潛影 | 24 | 24 09:13 | 24 | 40 | 67% | 5 |
| R9 #9 | KING DANCE 勁勇皇駒 | 12 | 12 09:13 | 12 | 20 | 67% | 4 |
| R8 #6 | MIGHTY STRENGTH 勁大威猛 | 9.5 | 9.5 09:13 | 9.5 | 16 | 68% | 11 |
| R7 #13 | FORZA LEADER 領袖勁力 | 16 | 16 09:13 | 16 | 27 | 69% | 12 |
| R8 #3 | CALL ME MAGNIFIQUE 千禧龍 | 7.6 | 7.6 09:13 | 7.6 | 13 | 71% | 7 |
| R1 #10 | KOLACHI 至高心得 | 66 | 66 09:13 | 66 | 116 | 76% | 12 |
| R1 #3 | FORTUNE SUPERNOVA 順成之星 | 27 | 27 09:13 | 27 | 48 | 78% | 13 |
| R7 #7 | GENIUS BABY 團結戰靈 | 23 | 23 09:13 | 23 | 41 | 78% | 9 |
| R10 #12 | JIN SHENG 金聖 | 29 | 29 09:13 | 29 | 52 | 79% | 5 |
| R8 #11 | DREAMING TOGETHER 同心同夢 | 34 | 34 09:13 | 34 | 61 | 79% | 3 |
| R2 #12 | E HOPEFUL 電子騰飛 | 30 | 30 09:13 | 30 | 55 | 83% | 7 |
| R6 #14 | VIEW ALL THINGS 觀萬物 | 21 | 21 09:13 | 21 | 41 | 95% | 6 |
| R5 #2 | HAPPY UNIVERSE 開心宇宙 | 9.2 | 9.2 09:13 | 9.2 | 18 | 96% | 3 |
| R2 #11 | TRENDY RUSH 潮流勇駒 | 7.6 | 7.6 09:13 | 7.6 | 15 | 97% | 6 |
| R11 #7 | GRAND EAGLE 神鵰 | 9 | 9 09:13 | 9 | 18 | 100% | 8 |
| R10 #6 | SMART OINK 叻叻豬 | 7.6 | 7.6 09:13 | 7.6 | 16 | 111% | 13 |
| R1 #8 | VIVA TASTE 怪獸叉燒 | 16 | 16 09:13 | 16 | 34 | 113% | 10 |
| R4 #7 | SPEEDY TRIDENT 海洋帝君 | 13 | 13 09:13 | 13 | 28 | 115% | 13 |
| R5 #10 | PERFECT TEAM 精彩動力 | 23 | 23 09:13 | 23 | 50 | 117% | 8 |
| R1 #5 | RISING ELITE 旭能精英 | 36 | 36 09:13 | 36 | 79 | 119% | 8 |
| R11 #5 | BUNTA BABY 品德寶寶 | 17 | 17 09:13 | 17 | 39 | 129% | 1 |
| R6 #13 | APOLAR FIGHTER 無極勇將 | 65 | 65 09:13 | 65 | 157 | 142% | 8 |
| R6 #12 | GOLDENTRONICMIGHTY 金創福威 | 38 | 38 09:13 | 38 | 93 | 145% | 12 |
| R2 #8 | SMILING SKY 天風雲 | 42 | 42 09:13 | 42 | 105 | 150% | 5 |
| R3 #4 | GORGEOUS WIN 華麗再勝 | 10 | 10 09:13 | 10 | 25 | 150% | 5 |
| R7 #6 | JOLLY BONUS 好運多彩 | 36 | 36 09:13 | 36 | 90 | 150% | 11 |
| R10 #8 | MICKLEY 米奇 | 8.4 | 8.4 09:13 | 8.4 | 21 | 150% | 6 |
| R2 #4 | FAITHFUL WARRIOR 忠良烈漢 | 43 | 43 09:13 | 43 | 109 | 154% | 14 |
| R6 #4 | COPARTNER FLEET 合夥飛馳 | 41 | 41 09:13 | 41 | 107 | 161% | 4 |
| R6 #10 | SUPERB KID 巴閉仔 | 29 | 29 09:13 | 29 | 77 | 165% | 7 |
| R6 #7 | LESLIE 風繼續吹 | 24 | 24 09:13 | 24 | 68 | 183% | 14 |
| R2 #9 | GOOD POWER 好力 | 55 | 55 09:13 | 55 | 158 | 187% | 11 |
| R8 #2 | POCKETING 展雄志 | 14 | 14 09:13 | 14 | 41 | 193% | 4 |
| R10 #11 | NOTTHESILLYONE 大番薯 | 16 | 16 09:13 | 16 | 47 | 194% | 11 |
| R11 #13 | LIFELINE EXPRESS 健康快車 | 21 | 21 09:13 | 21 | 62 | 195% | 11 |
| R11 #11 | SHANGHAI WARRIOR 上海勇士 | 42 | 42 09:13 | 42 | 130 | 210% | 6 |
| R7 #5 | KINGMAN REEF 澄心知遇 | 24 | 24 09:13 | 24 | 76 | 217% | 7 |
| R7 #1 | WELL ENOUGH 龍文瑞安 | 52 | 52 09:13 | 52 | 171 | 229% | 5 |
| R11 #6 | RADIANT PATH 睿明途嘉 | 27 | 27 09:13 | 27 | 104 | 285% | 12 |
| R11 #12 | VULCANUS 星火燎原 | 39 | 39 09:13 | 39 | 156 | 300% | 13 |
| R6 #1 | SUGAR GOODSON 捷駿 | 25 | 25 09:13 | 25 | 125 | 400% | 13 |
Open → last pre-jump snapshot: drifted ≥50%
None
Data gaps
- R1: last stored pre-jump snapshot was 197 min before post (09:13 HKT) — late market moves not captured
- R2: last stored pre-jump snapshot was 227 min before post (09:13 HKT) — late market moves not captured
- R3: last stored pre-jump snapshot was 257 min before post (09:13 HKT) — late market moves not captured
- R4: last stored pre-jump snapshot was 287 min before post (09:13 HKT) — late market moves not captured
- R5: last stored pre-jump snapshot was 317 min before post (09:13 HKT) — late market moves not captured
- R6: last stored pre-jump snapshot was 347 min before post (09:13 HKT) — late market moves not captured
- R7: last stored pre-jump snapshot was 382 min before post (09:13 HKT) — late market moves not captured
- R8: last stored pre-jump snapshot was 412 min before post (09:13 HKT) — late market moves not captured
- R9: last stored pre-jump snapshot was 442 min before post (09:13 HKT) — late market moves not captured
- R10: last stored pre-jump snapshot was 477 min before post (09:13 HKT) — late market moves not captured
- R11: last stored pre-jump snapshot was 512 min before post (09:13 HKT) — late market moves not captured
Summary metrics
Detailed exotic metrics below are for the hybridV2 (live primary) preset when available, else hybrid V1.
Win — top pick
2/11 (18.2%)
Win — in top 3 picks
4/11 (36.4%)
Top pick placed
7/11 (63.6%)
Any top-3 pick placed
9/11 (81.8%)
Favourite won (SP)
1/11 (9.1%)
Quinella top 1
2/11 (18.2%)
Quinella in top 3
4/11 (36.4%)
Forecast top 1
1/11 (9.1%)
Forecast in top 3
2/11 (18.2%)
Tierce top 1
0/11 (0.0%)
Tierce in top 3
0/11 (0.0%)
First 4 top 1
0/11 (0.0%)
First 4 in top 3
1/11 (9.1%)
By meeting
2026-10-04 · Sha Tin
11 races
- Win — top pick: 2/11 (18.2%)
- Win — in top 3 picks: 4/11 (36.4%)
- Top pick placed: 7/11 (63.6%)
- Favourite won (SP): 1/11 (9.1%)
Per-race results
| Date | Venue | R | Race | Actual | Model top 3 | Hybrid vs actual | Hits | QIN / FCT / TCE / F4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-04 | Sha Tin | 1 | CHAI WAN KOK HANDICAP | 1-14-12 | 14 HAPPYDEARHAPPYDEER 8.7%12 ORIENTAL SURPRISE 8.1%1 DOUBLE BINGO 7.4% | 14-12-1 vs 1-14-12 W1W3Pl | W1W3PlQINFCTTCEF4 | QIN 12-14 vs 1-14 FCT 14-12 vs 1-14 TCE 14-12-1 vs 1-14-12 F4 1-2-12-14 vs 1-4-12-14 |
| 2026-10-04 | Sha Tin | 2 | KWOK SHUI HANDICAP | 13-2-3 | 13 KOL 9.3%11 TRENDY RUSH 7.7%14 SAME TO YOU 7.7% | 13-11-14 vs 13-2-3 W1W3Pl | W1W3PlQINFCTTCEF4 | QIN 11-13 vs 2-13 FCT 13-11 vs 13-2 TCE 13-11-14 vs 13-2-3 F4 2-11-13-14 vs 2-3-6-13 |
| 2026-10-04 | Sha Tin | 3 | MUK MIN HA HANDICAP | 6-2-7 | 2 TALENTS AMBITION 14.7%7 SKY VINO 13.4%8 LOCH TAY 12.5% | 2-7-8 vs 6-2-7 W1W3Pl | W1W3PlQINFCTTCEF4 | QIN 2-7 vs 2-6 FCT 2-7 vs 6-2 TCE 2-7-8 vs 6-2-7 F4 2-3-7-8 vs 2-6-7-8 |
| 2026-10-04 | Sha Tin | 4 | LO WAI HANDICAP | 12-14-8 | 8 THE ALL ROUNDER 8.7%13 SUPERB GUY 7.7%7 SPEEDY TRIDENT 7.4% | 8-13-7 vs 12-14-8 W1W3Pl | W1W3PlQINFCTTCEF4 | QIN 8-13 vs 12-14 FCT 8-13 vs 12-14 TCE 8-13-7 vs 12-14-8 F4 7-8-13-14 vs 5-8-12-14 |
| 2026-10-04 | Sha Tin | 5 | SHA TSUI HANDICAP | 5-8-2 | 7 CHILL KAKA 8.4%6 NIGHT PUROSANGUE 8.2%12 BULL ATTITUDE 7.9% | 7-6-12 vs 5-8-2 W1W3Pl | W1W3PlQINFCTTCEF4 | QIN 6-7 vs 5-8 FCT 7-6 vs 5-8 TCE 7-6-12 vs 5-8-2 F4 6-7-8-12 vs 2-5-8-12 |
| 2026-10-04 | Sha Tin | 6 | THE YAN CHAI TROPHY (HANDICAP) | 6-2-9 | 2 GRAND PATCH 8.7%6 MR COOL 7.9%3 POSITIVE SMILE 7.8% | 2-6-3 vs 6-2-9 W1W3Pl | W1W3PlQINFCTTCEF4 | QIN 2-6 vs 2-6 FCT 2-6 vs 6-2 TCE 2-6-3 vs 6-2-9 F4 2-3-6-8 vs 2-4-6-9 |
| 2026-10-04 | Sha Tin | 7 | SHAM TSENG HANDICAP | 3-14-9 | 3 LADY'S LOVE 8.1%14 QUICK CONTRIBUTION 7.9%8 GOLDEN WIN 7.8% | 3-14-8 vs 3-14-9 W1W3Pl | W1W3PlQINFCTTCEF4 | QIN 3-14 vs 3-14 FCT 3-14 vs 3-14 TCE 3-14-8 vs 3-14-9 F4 3-8-11-14 vs 2-3-9-14 |
| 2026-10-04 | Sha Tin | 8 | THE CHINESE RECREATION CLUB CHALLENGE CUP (HANDICAP) | 8-10-11 | 5 FLOW WATER FLOW 11.3%9 HYMNBOOK 9.5%3 CALL ME MAGNIFIQUE 9.2% | 5-9-3 vs 8-10-11 W1W3Pl | W1W3PlQINFCTTCEF4 | QIN 5-9 vs 8-10 FCT 5-9 vs 8-10 TCE 5-9-3 vs 8-10-11 F4 3-5-8-9 vs 2-8-10-11 |
| 2026-10-04 | Sha Tin | 9 | SHEK WAI KOK HANDICAP | 10-5-1 | 12 QUANTUM LEGEND 10.0%8 BLOSSOMY 9.4%5 NEZHA 9.2% | 12-8-5 vs 10-5-1 W1W3Pl | W1W3PlQINFCTTCEF4 | QIN 8-12 vs 5-10 FCT 12-8 vs 10-5 TCE 12-8-5 vs 10-5-1 F4 5-8-11-12 vs 1-5-9-10 |
| 2026-10-04 | Sha Tin | 10 | SHING MUN HANDICAP | 1-7-14 | 8 MICKLEY 7.5%13 LUCKY CANDY 7.5%14 LAHORE 7.5% | 8-13-10 vs 1-7-14 W1W3Pl | W1W3PlQINFCTTCEF4 | QIN 8-13 vs 1-7 FCT 8-13 vs 1-7 TCE 8-13-14 vs 1-7-14 F4 8-10-13-14 vs 1-5-7-14 |
| 2026-10-04 | Sha Tin | 11 | YAU KOM TAU HANDICAP | 5-2-3 | 2 SOLID STATE 9.0%7 GRAND EAGLE 7.5%10 PACKING GLORY 7.2% | 2-7-10 vs 5-2-3 W1W3Pl | W1W3PlQINFCTTCEF4 | QIN 2-7 vs 2-5 FCT 2-7 vs 5-2 TCE 2-7-10 vs 5-2-3 F4 2-7-10-13 vs 1-2-3-5 |
- Analysis only — not betting advice. Hypothetical ROI uses official HKJC dividends per HK$10.
- Official results: racing.hkjc.com LocalResults (EN + 繁中); fetched 2026-10-08T03:06:21.683Z.
- Last pre-jump snapshot per race: R1 09:13 (197m pre-post); R2 09:13 (227m pre-post); R3 09:13 (257m pre-post); R4 09:13 (287m pre-post); R5 09:13 (317m pre-post); R6 09:13 (347m pre-post); R7 09:13 (382m pre-post); R8 09:13 (412m pre-post); R9 09:13 (442m pre-post); R10 09:13 (477m pre-post); R11 09:13 (512m pre-post).
- Snapshots captured at/after post time are excluded from 'pre-jump' (they reflect closed pools ≈ SP).
- Morning brief ranking: data/predictions/2026-10-04-st-morning.json (scratched runners removed, probabilities renormalised).
- Exotic hits: top1 = model's #1 combination; top3 = actual combination within model's first three combinations (same derivation as race pages).
- R1: last stored pre-jump snapshot was 197 min before post (09:13 HKT) — late market moves not captured
- R2: last stored pre-jump snapshot was 227 min before post (09:13 HKT) — late market moves not captured
- R3: last stored pre-jump snapshot was 257 min before post (09:13 HKT) — late market moves not captured
- R4: last stored pre-jump snapshot was 287 min before post (09:13 HKT) — late market moves not captured
- R5: last stored pre-jump snapshot was 317 min before post (09:13 HKT) — late market moves not captured
- R6: last stored pre-jump snapshot was 347 min before post (09:13 HKT) — late market moves not captured
- R7: last stored pre-jump snapshot was 382 min before post (09:13 HKT) — late market moves not captured
- R8: last stored pre-jump snapshot was 412 min before post (09:13 HKT) — late market moves not captured
- R9: last stored pre-jump snapshot was 442 min before post (09:13 HKT) — late market moves not captured
- R10: last stored pre-jump snapshot was 477 min before post (09:13 HKT) — late market moves not captured
- R11: last stored pre-jump snapshot was 512 min before post (09:13 HKT) — late market moves not captured
1 Oct 2026 Sha Tin (11 races) — pre-race snapshots vs results
Single-meeting backtest. Morning brief = form-only hybrid published before pools opened (no odds). hybridV2 / hybrid (V1) re-scored with the last stored WIN snapshot before each race's post time (open = morning snapshot for 走勢盤). Favourite baselines use the last pre-race snapshot and the official SP. ROI rows are hypothetical flat HK$10 stakes using official dividends.
Odds mode: last pre-jump WIN snapshot (hybrid presets); SP & morning-open as sensitivity
Preset comparison (pre-race snapshot odds + form)
Same 11 races: morning brief (no odds), hybrid V2 / V1 at the last pre-jump snapshot, and favourite baselines (last snapshot and SP).
| Preset | Win — top pick | Win — in top 3 picks | Top pick placed | Any top-3 pick placed |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morning brief (form only, no odds) | 3/11 (27.3%) | 6/11 (54.5%) | 6/11 (54.5%) | 10/11 (90.9%) |
| Hybrid V2 @ last pre-jump snapshotLive | 2/11 (18.2%) | 6/11 (54.5%) | 7/11 (63.6%) | 10/11 (90.9%) |
| Hybrid V1 @ last pre-jump snapshot | 3/11 (27.3%) | 6/11 (54.5%) | 5/11 (45.5%) | 10/11 (90.9%) |
| Hybrid V3 (shadow, real J/T point-in-time) @ last pre-jump snapshot | 3/11 (27.3%) | 8/11 (72.7%) | 7/11 (63.6%) | 11/11 (100.0%) |
| v2 form + pace @ last pre-jump snapshot | 2/11 (18.2%) | 5/11 (45.5%) | 5/11 (45.5%) | 10/11 (90.9%) |
| Market-lean @ last pre-jump snapshot | 3/11 (27.3%) | 8/11 (72.7%) | 6/11 (54.5%) | 11/11 (100.0%) |
| Favourite — last pre-jump snapshot | 3/11 (27.3%) | 7/11 (63.6%) | 6/11 (54.5%) | 10/11 (90.9%) |
| Favourite — official SP | 2/11 (18.2%) | 7/11 (63.6%) | 7/11 (63.6%) | 11/11 (100.0%) |
Pre-race vs SP
Pre-race: stored snapshots (morning open + last snapshot before each post time); SP from official results
Odds-source sensitivity (hybrid presets)
| Odds source | Win — top pick | Win — in top 3 picks | Top pick placed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hybrid V2 · Last pre-race snap | 2/11 (18.2%) | 6/11 (54.5%) | 7/11 (63.6%) |
| Hybrid V2 · Morning / open | 3/11 (27.3%) | 6/11 (54.5%) | 5/11 (45.5%) |
| Hybrid V2 · SP (results) | 3/11 (27.3%) | 5/11 (45.5%) | 7/11 (63.6%) |
| Hybrid V1 · Last pre-race snap | 3/11 (27.3%) | 6/11 (54.5%) | 5/11 (45.5%) |
| Hybrid V1 · Morning / open | 3/11 (27.3%) | 6/11 (54.5%) | 5/11 (45.5%) |
| Hybrid V1 · SP (results) | 3/11 (27.3%) | 5/11 (45.5%) | 6/11 (54.5%) |
Per race: winner vs each preset's top pick
WIN = top pick won; PL = top pick placed (1st–3rd); ✗ = unplaced. Odds shown are those the preset used (morning brief had none).
| R | Winner (SP) | 1-2-3 | Morning brief | Hybrid V1 | Hybrid V2 | Hybrid V3 (shadow) | Fav (last snap) | Fav (SP) | Last snap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R1 13:00 | #7 CIRRUS SPEED (12) | 7-2-1 | #1SUNNY QPL | #5GOOD FORTUNE✗ @ 3.6 | #1SUNNY QPL @ 6.2 | #1SUNNY QPL @ 6.2 | #5GOOD FORTUNE✗ @ 3.6 | #5GOOD FORTUNE✗ @ 2.1 | 09:25 (215m pre) |
| R2 13:30 | #9 ALL ARE MINE (4.6) | 9-10-7 | #1AMAZING DUCK✗ | #1AMAZING DUCK✗ @ 3.2 | #1AMAZING DUCK✗ @ 3.2 | #1AMAZING DUCK✗ @ 3.2 | #1AMAZING DUCK✗ @ 3.2 | #1AMAZING DUCK✗ @ 3.4 | 09:25 (245m pre) |
| R3 14:00 | #4 COLOURFUL KING (2.2) | 4-7-6 | #4COLOURFUL KINGWIN | #4COLOURFUL KINGWIN @ 2.9 | #4COLOURFUL KINGWIN @ 2.9 | #4COLOURFUL KINGWIN @ 2.9 | #4COLOURFUL KINGWIN @ 2.9 | #4COLOURFUL KINGWIN @ 2.2 | 09:25 (275m pre) |
| R4 14:35 | #7 SOLID CAR (1.9) | 7-6-3 | #7SOLID CARWIN | #7SOLID CARWIN @ 3.4 | #7SOLID CARWIN @ 3.4 | #7SOLID CARWIN @ 3.4 | #7SOLID CARWIN @ 3.4 | #7SOLID CARWIN @ 1.9 | 09:25 (310m pre) |
| R5 15:05 | #3 KA YING LIGHTNING (4.7) | 3-1-6 | #1JEDI SPURSPL | #1JEDI SPURSPL @ 2.4 | #1JEDI SPURSPL @ 2.4 | #1JEDI SPURSPL @ 2.4 | #1JEDI SPURSPL @ 2.4 | #1JEDI SPURSPL @ 2 | 09:25 (340m pre) |
| R6 15:35 | #3 SUPER GOLDENDRAGON (5) | 3-1-8 | #3SUPER GOLDENDRAGONWIN | #3SUPER GOLDENDRAGONWIN @ 3.2 | #1VICTOR SUPREMEPL @ 4.8 | #3SUPER GOLDENDRAGONWIN @ 3.2 | #3SUPER GOLDENDRAGONWIN @ 3.2 | #1VICTOR SUPREMEPL @ 3.9 | 09:25 (370m pre) |
| R7 16:10 | #7 CAVAMAZING (38) | 7-10-11 | #6SPIRITED STEED✗ | #6SPIRITED STEED✗ @ 3.3 | #6SPIRITED STEED✗ @ 3.3 | #6SPIRITED STEED✗ @ 3.3 | #6SPIRITED STEED✗ @ 3.3 | #10KA YING RADIANCEPL @ 3.4 | 09:25 (405m pre) |
| R8 16:40 | #9 E HO HO (50) | 9-4-11 | #5PRIME ACE✗ | #5PRIME ACE✗ @ 6.1 | #5PRIME ACE✗ @ 6.1 | #5PRIME ACE✗ @ 6.1 | #4VIRTUS GLORYPL @ 4.7 | #4VIRTUS GLORYPL @ 3.4 | 09:25 (435m pre) |
| R9 17:10 | #1 SKY JEWELLERY (8.1) | 1-2-11 | #2HOT DELIGHTPL | #2HOT DELIGHTPL @ 3.1 | #2HOT DELIGHTPL @ 3.1 | #2HOT DELIGHTPL @ 3.1 | #2HOT DELIGHTPL @ 3.1 | #2HOT DELIGHTPL @ 3.9 | 09:25 (465m pre) |
| R10 17:45 | #3 AEROVOLANIC (5.6) | 3-1-7 | #14MASTER LUCKY✗ | #14MASTER LUCKY✗ @ 5.2 | #7SUPERB SPIRITPL @ 6.4 | #7SUPERB SPIRITPL @ 6.4 | #14MASTER LUCKY✗ @ 5.2 | #14MASTER LUCKY✗ @ 2.9 | 09:25 (500m pre) |
| R11 18:20 | #6 ABSOLUTE HEART (5.5) | 6-11-13 | #10LUCRATIVE EIGHT✗ | #10LUCRATIVE EIGHT✗ @ 11 | #10LUCRATIVE EIGHT✗ @ 11 | #10LUCRATIVE EIGHT✗ @ 11 | #1PI LEGEND✗ @ 5.2 | #8SPICY STANDARD✗ @ 3.9 | 09:25 (535m pre) |
Per preset: place & exotic hits
Top1 = model's #1 combination; in3 = actual combination within the model's first three. Top-3 placed = how many of the three picks per race finished 1st–3rd (out of races × 3).
| Preset | Win top1 | Winner in top3 | Top1 placed | Top-3 placed | QIN 1/3 | FCT 1/3 | TCE 1/3 | F4 1/3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morning brief (form only, no odds) | 3/11 (27.3%) | 6/11 (54.5%) | 6/11 (54.5%) | 15/33 (45.5%) | 2/11 / 4/11 | 1/11 / 3/11 | 0/11 / 1/11 | 0/11 / 0/11 |
| Hybrid V2 @ last pre-jump snapshot | 2/11 (18.2%) | 6/11 (54.5%) | 7/11 (63.6%) | 14/33 (42.4%) | 3/11 / 4/11 | 0/11 / 3/11 | 0/11 / 0/11 | 0/11 / 0/11 |
| Hybrid V1 @ last pre-jump snapshot | 3/11 (27.3%) | 6/11 (54.5%) | 5/11 (45.5%) | 15/33 (45.5%) | 3/11 / 4/11 | 1/11 / 4/11 | 0/11 / 1/11 | 0/11 / 0/11 |
| Hybrid V3 (shadow, real J/T point-in-time) @ last pre-jump snapshot | 3/11 (27.3%) | 8/11 (72.7%) | 7/11 (63.6%) | 16/33 (48.5%) | 3/11 / 4/11 | 1/11 / 3/11 | 0/11 / 0/11 | 0/11 / 1/11 |
| Favourite — last pre-jump snapshot | 3/11 (27.3%) | 7/11 (63.6%) | 6/11 (54.5%) | 16/33 (48.5%) | 3/11 / 4/11 | 1/11 / 3/11 | 1/11 / 1/11 | 0/11 / 1/11 |
| Favourite — official SP | 2/11 (18.2%) | 7/11 (63.6%) | 7/11 (63.6%) | 19/33 (57.6%) | 2/11 / 4/11 | 1/11 / 3/11 | 0/11 / 1/11 | 0/11 / 3/11 |
| Market-lean @ last pre-jump snapshot | 3/11 (27.3%) | 8/11 (72.7%) | 6/11 (54.5%) | 18/33 (54.5%) | 3/11 / 4/11 | 1/11 / 3/11 | 1/11 / 1/11 | 0/11 / 1/11 |
| v2 form + pace @ last pre-jump snapshot | 2/11 (18.2%) | 5/11 (45.5%) | 5/11 (45.5%) | 14/33 (42.4%) | 1/11 / 2/11 | 1/11 / 1/11 | 1/11 / 1/11 | 0/11 / 1/11 |
Hypothetical return — flat HK$10 on each top pick
Purely hypothetical, using official HKJC dividends per HK$10. Not betting advice and not indicative of future results. One meeting is a tiny, high-variance sample.
| Preset | Staked | Win return | Win ROI | Place return | Place ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morning brief (form only, no odds) | $110 | $91 | -17.3% | $89.5 | -18.6% |
| Hybrid V2 @ last pre-jump snapshot | $110 | $41 | -62.7% | $107 | -2.7% |
| Hybrid V1 @ last pre-jump snapshot | $110 | $91 | -17.3% | $71.5 | -35% |
| Hybrid V3 (shadow, real J/T point-in-time) @ last pre-jump snapshot | $110 | $91 | -17.3% | $107 | -2.7% |
| Favourite — last pre-jump snapshot | $110 | $91 | -17.3% | $86.5 | -21.4% |
| Favourite — official SP | $110 | $41 | -62.7% | $101 | -8.2% |
| Market-lean @ last pre-jump snapshot | $110 | $91 | -17.3% | $86.5 | -21.4% |
| v2 form + pace @ last pre-jump snapshot | $110 | $93.5 | -15% | $87.5 | -20.5% |
走勢盤 study (stored snapshots only)
open = morning snapshot (~09:19 HKT); lastPre = latest stored snapshot before post time; anyTime = lowest odds in any stored pre-post snapshot; SP = official results Win Odds (SP-basis is hindsight — not knowable before the jump)
| Group | Runners | Win rate | Place rate | Hyp. win return ($10 each) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All runners with a morning price | 146 | 11/146 (7.5%) | 33/146 (22.6%) | $1382.5 / $1460 |
| Shortened ≥25% (open → last pre-jump snapshot) | 12 | 1/12 (8.3%) | 5/12 (41.7%) | $380 / $120 |
| Shortened ≥25% at any stored pre-race snapshot | 12 | 1/12 (8.3%) | 5/12 (41.7%) | $380 / $120 |
| Steady (neither) | 132 | 9/132 (6.8%) | 26/132 (19.7%) | $952.5 / $1320 |
| Drifted ≥50% (open → last pre-jump snapshot) | 2 | 1/2 (50.0%) | 2/2 (100.0%) | $50 / $20 |
| Shortened ≥25% open → SP (hindsight) | 29 | 2/29 (6.9%) | 12/29 (41.4%) | $65.5 / $290 |
| Drifted ≥50% open → SP (hindsight) | 66 | 1/66 (1.5%) | 3/66 (4.5%) | $50 / $660 |
Open → last pre-jump snapshot: shortened ≥25%
| R / No. | Horse | Open | Low (pre) | Last pre | SP | Move | Finish |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R8 #14 | CASA PRIMO 領航多福 | 27 | 11 09:25 | 11 | 12 | -59% | 10 |
| R2 #7 | I EXCELLE 我最好 | 24 | 13 09:25 | 13 | 12 | -46% | 3 |
| R5 #4 | CHARMING BABE 輕功猛男 | 16 | 8.8 09:25 | 8.8 | 24 | -45% | 8 |
| R6 #8 | SUPREME MASTERMIND 智多多寶 | 11 | 7 09:25 | 7 | 10 | -36% | 3 |
| R7 #7 | CAVAMAZING 領駿精彩 | 27 | 18 09:25 | 18 | 38 | -33% | 1 |
| R6 #12 | ON THE LASH 齊歡最樂 | 32 | 22 09:25 | 22 | 21 | -31% | 8 |
| R6 #1 | VICTOR SUPREME 捷威 | 6.9 | 4.8 09:25 | 4.8 | 3.9 | -30% | 2 |
| R8 #3 | OLDTOWN 鋁神 | 30 | 21 09:25 | 21 | 51 | -30% | 7 |
| R10 #8 | MONEY GAMES 金錢遊戲 | 8.8 | 6.2 09:25 | 6.2 | 13 | -30% | 10 |
| R7 #2 | LIGHT YEARS GLORY 光年程祥 | 8 | 5.8 09:25 | 5.8 | 3.7 | -28% | 4 |
| R11 #8 | SPICY STANDARD 辣得準 | 13 | 9.6 09:25 | 9.6 | 3.9 | -26% | 11 |
| R10 #1 | CHILL BUDDY 超寫意 | 10 | 7.5 09:25 | 7.5 | 15 | -25% | 2 |
Shortened ≥25% at any stored pre-race snapshot (by low)
| R / No. | Horse | Open | Low (pre) | Last pre | SP | Max move | Finish |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R8 #14 | CASA PRIMO 領航多福 | 27 | 11 09:25 | 11 | 12 | -59% | 10 |
| R2 #7 | I EXCELLE 我最好 | 24 | 13 09:25 | 13 | 12 | -46% | 3 |
| R5 #4 | CHARMING BABE 輕功猛男 | 16 | 8.8 09:25 | 8.8 | 24 | -45% | 8 |
| R6 #8 | SUPREME MASTERMIND 智多多寶 | 11 | 7 09:25 | 7 | 10 | -36% | 3 |
| R7 #7 | CAVAMAZING 領駿精彩 | 27 | 18 09:25 | 18 | 38 | -33% | 1 |
| R6 #12 | ON THE LASH 齊歡最樂 | 32 | 22 09:25 | 22 | 21 | -31% | 8 |
| R6 #1 | VICTOR SUPREME 捷威 | 6.9 | 4.8 09:25 | 4.8 | 3.9 | -30% | 2 |
| R8 #3 | OLDTOWN 鋁神 | 30 | 21 09:25 | 21 | 51 | -30% | 7 |
| R10 #8 | MONEY GAMES 金錢遊戲 | 8.8 | 6.2 09:25 | 6.2 | 13 | -30% | 10 |
| R7 #2 | LIGHT YEARS GLORY 光年程祥 | 8 | 5.8 09:25 | 5.8 | 3.7 | -28% | 4 |
| R11 #8 | SPICY STANDARD 辣得準 | 13 | 9.6 09:25 | 9.6 | 3.9 | -26% | 11 |
| R10 #1 | CHILL BUDDY 超寫意 | 10 | 7.5 09:25 | 7.5 | 15 | -25% | 2 |
Open → SP: shortened ≥25% (hindsight)
| R / No. | Horse | Open | Low (pre) | Last pre | SP | Move | Finish |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R11 #8 | SPICY STANDARD 辣得準 | 13 | 9.6 09:25 | 9.6 | 3.9 | -70% | 11 |
| R8 #7 | GOLDEN TRIUMPH 金鼓大班 | 51 | 51 18:50 | 54 | 17 | -67% | 5 |
| R9 #11 | DROMBEG BANNER 飛鷹翱翔 | 13 | 13 18:50 | 15 | 5 | -61% | 3 |
| R6 #7 | LUCKY YEAR 好運年 | 11 | 9.9 09:25 | 9.9 | 4.6 | -58% | 6 |
| R2 #13 | HAPPY BUDDIES 快樂之友 | 30 | 30 18:50 | 35 | 13 | -57% | 10 |
| R8 #14 | CASA PRIMO 領航多福 | 27 | 11 09:25 | 11 | 12 | -56% | 10 |
| R4 #6 | PRESTIGE COME 盈妮威楓 | 19 | 18 09:25 | 18 | 8.5 | -55% | 2 |
| R1 #4 | POWER PATCH 錶之無限 | 22 | 22 18:50 | 22 | 10 | -54% | 4 |
| R7 #2 | LIGHT YEARS GLORY 光年程祥 | 8 | 5.8 09:25 | 5.8 | 3.7 | -54% | 4 |
| R2 #7 | I EXCELLE 我最好 | 24 | 13 09:25 | 13 | 12 | -50% | 3 |
| R3 #6 | BOTTOMUPTOGETHER 天天同樂 | 13 | 11 09:25 | 11 | 6.6 | -49% | 3 |
| R6 #9 | FAST SPEED 勁步速 | 45 | 41 09:25 | 41 | 24 | -47% | 5 |
| R2 #9 | ALL ARE MINE 開心三多 | 8.3 | 7.9 09:25 | 7.9 | 4.6 | -45% | 1 |
| R11 #11 | MAJESTIC VALOUR 勇者為皇 | 13 | 12 09:25 | 12 | 7.3 | -44% | 2 |
| R6 #1 | VICTOR SUPREME 捷威 | 6.9 | 4.8 09:25 | 4.8 | 3.9 | -44% | 2 |
| R1 #5 | GOOD FORTUNE 同有運 | 3.6 | 3.6 18:50 | 3.6 | 2.1 | -42% | 14 |
| R5 #2 | YEE CHEONG GLORY 怡昌光輝 | 24 | 24 18:50 | 24 | 14 | -42% | 4 |
| R10 #7 | SUPERB SPIRIT 巴閉精 | 6.5 | 6.4 09:25 | 6.4 | 3.8 | -41% | 3 |
| R9 #12 | PUBLIC ATTENTION 威利金箭 | 10 | 9.5 09:25 | 9.5 | 5.9 | -41% | 8 |
| R9 #4 | TOP DRAGON 喜尊龍 | 11 | 11 18:50 | 11 | 6.5 | -41% | 7 |
| R4 #7 | SOLID CAR 實力加 | 3.2 | 3.2 18:50 | 3.4 | 1.9 | -41% | 1 |
| R10 #14 | MASTER LUCKY 八仟好運 | 4.8 | 4.8 18:50 | 5.2 | 2.9 | -40% | 4 |
| R11 #12 | MR DESIRA 飛龍在天 | 33 | 33 18:50 | 35 | 20 | -39% | 9 |
| R5 #6 | HANDSOME HERO 盈俊天下 | 15 | 15 18:50 | 15 | 9.5 | -37% | 3 |
| R6 #12 | ON THE LASH 齊歡最樂 | 32 | 22 09:25 | 22 | 21 | -34% | 8 |
| R4 #9 | PRESIDENT PEGASUS 總統輝煌 | 27 | 25 09:25 | 25 | 18 | -33% | 12 |
| R8 #4 | VIRTUS GLORY 明德輝煌 | 4.6 | 4.6 18:50 | 4.7 | 3.4 | -26% | 2 |
| R8 #11 | SPEEDY POWER 閃電奇駿 | 5.5 | 5.4 09:25 | 5.4 | 4.1 | -25% | 3 |
| R3 #5 | TOMODACHI KOKOROE 好友心得 | 20 | 20 18:50 | 23 | 15 | -25% | 7 |
Late moves after the last stored snapshot (SP ÷ last pre ≤0.75 or ≥1.5)
| R / No. | Horse | Open | Low (pre) | Last pre | SP | SP vs pre | Finish |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R8 #7 | GOLDEN TRIUMPH 金鼓大班 | 51 | 51 18:50 | 54 | 17 | -68% | 5 |
| R9 #11 | DROMBEG BANNER 飛鷹翱翔 | 13 | 13 18:50 | 15 | 5 | -67% | 3 |
| R2 #13 | HAPPY BUDDIES 快樂之友 | 30 | 30 18:50 | 35 | 13 | -63% | 10 |
| R11 #8 | SPICY STANDARD 辣得準 | 13 | 9.6 09:25 | 9.6 | 3.9 | -59% | 11 |
| R1 #4 | POWER PATCH 錶之無限 | 22 | 22 18:50 | 22 | 10 | -54% | 4 |
| R6 #7 | LUCKY YEAR 好運年 | 11 | 9.9 09:25 | 9.9 | 4.6 | -53% | 6 |
| R4 #6 | PRESTIGE COME 盈妮威楓 | 19 | 18 09:25 | 18 | 8.5 | -53% | 2 |
| R10 #14 | MASTER LUCKY 八仟好運 | 4.8 | 4.8 18:50 | 5.2 | 2.9 | -44% | 4 |
| R4 #7 | SOLID CAR 實力加 | 3.2 | 3.2 18:50 | 3.4 | 1.9 | -44% | 1 |
| R11 #12 | MR DESIRA 飛龍在天 | 33 | 33 18:50 | 35 | 20 | -43% | 9 |
| R2 #9 | ALL ARE MINE 開心三多 | 8.3 | 7.9 09:25 | 7.9 | 4.6 | -42% | 1 |
| R1 #5 | GOOD FORTUNE 同有運 | 3.6 | 3.6 18:50 | 3.6 | 2.1 | -42% | 14 |
| R5 #2 | YEE CHEONG GLORY 怡昌光輝 | 24 | 24 18:50 | 24 | 14 | -42% | 4 |
| R6 #9 | FAST SPEED 勁步速 | 45 | 41 09:25 | 41 | 24 | -41% | 5 |
| R9 #4 | TOP DRAGON 喜尊龍 | 11 | 11 18:50 | 11 | 6.5 | -41% | 7 |
| R10 #7 | SUPERB SPIRIT 巴閉精 | 6.5 | 6.4 09:25 | 6.4 | 3.8 | -41% | 3 |
| R3 #6 | BOTTOMUPTOGETHER 天天同樂 | 13 | 11 09:25 | 11 | 6.6 | -40% | 3 |
| R11 #11 | MAJESTIC VALOUR 勇者為皇 | 13 | 12 09:25 | 12 | 7.3 | -39% | 2 |
| R9 #12 | PUBLIC ATTENTION 威利金箭 | 10 | 9.5 09:25 | 9.5 | 5.9 | -38% | 8 |
| R5 #6 | HANDSOME HERO 盈俊天下 | 15 | 15 18:50 | 15 | 9.5 | -37% | 3 |
| R7 #2 | LIGHT YEARS GLORY 光年程祥 | 8 | 5.8 09:25 | 5.8 | 3.7 | -36% | 4 |
| R3 #5 | TOMODACHI KOKOROE 好友心得 | 20 | 20 18:50 | 23 | 15 | -35% | 7 |
| R5 #10 | CLASSIC TRIPLE 經典多寶 | 28 | 28 18:50 | 35 | 24 | -31% | 10 |
| R4 #9 | PRESIDENT PEGASUS 總統輝煌 | 27 | 25 09:25 | 25 | 18 | -28% | 12 |
| R8 #4 | VIRTUS GLORY 明德輝煌 | 4.6 | 4.6 18:50 | 4.7 | 3.4 | -28% | 2 |
| R7 #14 | LAKESHORE HERO 翠湖烈風 | 15 | 15 18:50 | 16 | 12 | -25% | 8 |
| R11 #7 | GLORYSPEED 神衝萬里 | 10 | 10 18:50 | 10 | 15 | 50% | 4 |
| R1 #10 | VIVA CHALEUR 爆熱 | 6.9 | 6.9 18:50 | 7.7 | 12 | 56% | 7 |
| R6 #3 | SUPER GOLDENDRAGON 佰勝金龍 | 2.1 | 2.1 18:50 | 3.2 | 5 | 56% | 1 |
| R3 #8 | JOHANNES BRAHMS 玩笑 | 21 | 18 09:25 | 18 | 29 | 61% | 6 |
| R2 #8 | MULTISUPERSTAR 萬事勝利 | 6.1 | 6.1 18:50 | 7.4 | 12 | 62% | 9 |
| R2 #4 | SUPER SICARIO 堅多福 | 33 | 33 18:50 | 37 | 60 | 62% | 11 |
| R4 #3 | CHILL PARTNERS 超拍檔 | 21 | 19 09:25 | 19 | 31 | 63% | 3 |
| R7 #1 | MASTER CHAMPION 長勝金剛 | 15 | 15 18:50 | 19 | 31 | 63% | 14 |
| R6 #5 | FLUORESCENCE 熒光 | 57 | 56 09:25 | 56 | 94 | 68% | 10 |
| R2 #2 | CIRCUIT MARSHAL 綫路福將 | 14 | 14 18:50 | 16 | 27 | 69% | 7 |
| R8 #6 | PRIVATE WEALTH 擅搏 | 7.5 | 7.5 18:50 | 9.4 | 16 | 70% | 11 |
| R4 #14 | STAR SATYR 久久為軍 | 6.4 | 6.3 09:25 | 6.3 | 11 | 75% | 4 |
| R2 #11 | SETANTA 駟跑得 | 22 | 21 09:25 | 21 | 37 | 76% | 8 |
| R6 #10 | GOOD GOOD 小飛俠 | 30 | 27 09:25 | 27 | 48 | 78% | 14 |
| R1 #6 | NOBLE FANS 魅力知福 | 11 | 10 09:25 | 10 | 18 | 80% | 5 |
| R4 #11 | ALABAMA SONG 豐功偉績 | 12 | 10 09:25 | 10 | 18 | 80% | 5 |
| R1 #14 | EXCEED THE WISH 星之願 | 42 | 42 18:50 | 44 | 81 | 84% | 9 |
| R1 #11 | QUICK MONEY 不勞而獲 | 27 | 26 09:25 | 26 | 49 | 89% | 11 |
| R2 #14 | MANYTHANKS FOREVER 常常感恩 | 41 | 41 18:50 | 50 | 95 | 90% | 5 |
| R11 #3 | EFFORTLESS WIN 㩒住贏 | 12 | 9.8 09:25 | 9.8 | 19 | 94% | 14 |
| R1 #9 | LEGENDARY IMPACT 傳承效應 | 45 | 45 18:50 | 46 | 90 | 96% | 12 |
| R3 #1 | RAGING BLIZZARD 精算暴雪 | 6.7 | 5.6 09:25 | 5.6 | 11 | 96% | 4 |
| R5 #5 | CELESTIAL ZOUS 星月峰雲 | 28 | 28 18:50 | 30 | 59 | 97% | 9 |
| R8 #5 | PRIME ACE 八玲瓏 | 6 | 6 18:50 | 6.1 | 12 | 97% | 9 |
| R5 #9 | TALENTS CHAMPION 精英奪冠 | 42 | 40 09:25 | 40 | 79 | 98% | 14 |
| R10 #1 | CHILL BUDDY 超寫意 | 10 | 7.5 09:25 | 7.5 | 15 | 100% | 2 |
| R8 #2 | HEALTHY HEALTHY 添開心 | 25 | 25 18:50 | 29 | 59 | 103% | 14 |
| R8 #10 | LUCKY BID 笑必勝 | 46 | 46 18:50 | 57 | 118 | 107% | 12 |
| R4 #5 | NOBLE PATCH 錶之翠河 | 15 | 13 09:25 | 13 | 27 | 108% | 6 |
| R10 #8 | MONEY GAMES 金錢遊戲 | 8.8 | 6.2 09:25 | 6.2 | 13 | 110% | 10 |
| R7 #7 | CAVAMAZING 領駿精彩 | 27 | 18 09:25 | 18 | 38 | 111% | 1 |
| R9 #5 | VICTORY SKY 樂勝天下 | 26 | 24 09:25 | 24 | 51 | 113% | 10 |
| R4 #13 | DIAMOND SPARKLE 鑽飾閃耀 | 33 | 31 09:25 | 31 | 66 | 113% | 9 |
| R2 #12 | SPECIAL HEDGE 精算特殊 | 38 | 38 18:50 | 51 | 109 | 114% | 6 |
| R11 #14 | MOUNT EVEREST 勇闖高峰 | 26 | 25 09:25 | 25 | 54 | 116% | 13 |
| R5 #12 | PRECISION MIND 天寶威威 | 11 | 11 18:50 | 12 | 26 | 117% | 6 |
| R9 #9 | INFINITE RESOLVE 晒冷 | 11 | 9.1 09:25 | 9.1 | 20 | 120% | 4 |
| R2 #5 | THE CONCENTRATION 全神貫注 | 30 | 30 18:50 | 32 | 71 | 122% | 12 |
| R2 #3 | PEARL OF PANG'S 彭玥 | 34 | 34 18:50 | 34 | 76 | 123% | 14 |
| R11 #2 | PERFECT GENERAL 精彩駿將 | 32 | 28 09:25 | 28 | 63 | 125% | 12 |
| R3 #3 | BEAUTY WAVES 美麗第一 | 9.4 | 9.4 18:50 | 11 | 25 | 127% | 8 |
| R10 #13 | KING OF FIGHTERS 佛亮老撾 | 21 | 21 18:50 | 28 | 66 | 136% | 9 |
| R6 #2 | DRAGON ON SNOW 騰龍踏雪 | 45 | 45 18:50 | 49 | 116 | 137% | 12 |
| R8 #3 | OLDTOWN 鋁神 | 30 | 21 09:25 | 21 | 51 | 143% | 7 |
| R9 #7 | EMBLAZON 會當凌 | 23 | 23 18:50 | 30 | 73 | 143% | 12 |
| R1 #8 | GROOVY FEELING 高感 | 19 | 19 18:50 | 23 | 56 | 144% | 10 |
| R10 #10 | SAMARKAND 建測羣英 | 44 | 44 18:50 | 47 | 117 | 149% | 5 |
| R8 #13 | MONTA FRUTTA 花果猴王 | 10 | 10 18:50 | 13 | 33 | 154% | 6 |
| R9 #10 | REGAL GEM 至尊瑰寶 | 18 | 17 09:25 | 17 | 44 | 159% | 5 |
| R5 #4 | CHARMING BABE 輕功猛男 | 16 | 8.8 09:25 | 8.8 | 24 | 173% | 8 |
| R4 #1 | EXCELLENCE VALUE 星價 | 20 | 20 18:50 | 25 | 69 | 176% | 8 |
| R4 #8 | SILVERY KNIGHT 銀騎士 | 31 | 31 18:50 | 39 | 108 | 177% | 10 |
| R7 #8 | MY WYNDFALL 多利旺駒 | 43 | 43 18:50 | 46 | 132 | 187% | 9 |
| R5 #7 | HOWEVER 有意無意 | 15 | 15 18:50 | 22 | 66 | 200% | 12 |
| R7 #5 | RISING FROM ASHES 自力更生 | 24 | 24 18:50 | 27 | 81 | 200% | 5 |
| R10 #5 | SONIC LINER 縱橫天地 | 47 | 47 18:50 | 52 | 158 | 204% | 12 |
| R4 #2 | TRUE BROTHERS 勝兄弟 | 28 | 28 18:50 | 35 | 109 | 211% | 13 |
| R5 #14 | CHAMP'S DOMAIN 勝萬家 | 19 | 19 18:50 | 21 | 70 | 233% | 13 |
| R10 #11 | LEATHER HERO 皮具英雄 | 23 | 23 18:50 | 28 | 94 | 236% | 13 |
| R7 #12 | LUCKY GIBS 金津寶駒 | 36 | 36 18:50 | 46 | 159 | 246% | 12 |
| R9 #8 | BRAVEFIELD 勇謀神駒 | 17 | 17 18:50 | 19 | 66 | 247% | 11 |
| R4 #4 | JOY TOGETHER 時尚歡笑 | 20 | 20 18:50 | 22 | 82 | 273% | 11 |
| R7 #9 | HIGH RISE VICTORY 高明豐勝 | 30 | 30 18:50 | 42 | 162 | 286% | 7 |
| R10 #2 | JOYFIELD 歡欣神駒 | 18 | 18 18:50 | 21 | 96 | 357% | 14 |
| R11 #13 | THOUSAND SPIRIT 千杯不醉 | 7.9 | 7.9 18:50 | 13 | 81 | 523% | 3 |
Open → last pre-jump snapshot: drifted ≥50%
| R / No. | Horse | Open | Low (pre) | Last pre | SP | Move | Finish |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R11 #13 | THOUSAND SPIRIT 千杯不醉 | 7.9 | 7.9 18:50 | 13 | 81 | 65% | 3 |
| R6 #3 | SUPER GOLDENDRAGON 佰勝金龍 | 2.1 | 2.1 18:50 | 3.2 | 5 | 52% | 1 |
Data gaps
- R1: last stored pre-jump snapshot was 215 min before post (09:25 HKT) — late market moves not captured
- R2: last stored pre-jump snapshot was 245 min before post (09:25 HKT) — late market moves not captured
- R3: last stored pre-jump snapshot was 275 min before post (09:25 HKT) — late market moves not captured
- R4: last stored pre-jump snapshot was 310 min before post (09:25 HKT) — late market moves not captured
- R5: last stored pre-jump snapshot was 340 min before post (09:25 HKT) — late market moves not captured
- R6: last stored pre-jump snapshot was 370 min before post (09:25 HKT) — late market moves not captured
- R7: last stored pre-jump snapshot was 405 min before post (09:25 HKT) — late market moves not captured
- R8: last stored pre-jump snapshot was 435 min before post (09:25 HKT) — late market moves not captured
- R9: last stored pre-jump snapshot was 465 min before post (09:25 HKT) — late market moves not captured
- R10: last stored pre-jump snapshot was 500 min before post (09:25 HKT) — late market moves not captured
- R11: last stored pre-jump snapshot was 535 min before post (09:25 HKT) — late market moves not captured
Summary metrics
Detailed exotic metrics below are for the hybridV2 (live primary) preset when available, else hybrid V1.
Win — top pick
2/11 (18.2%)
Win — in top 3 picks
6/11 (54.5%)
Top pick placed
7/11 (63.6%)
Any top-3 pick placed
10/11 (90.9%)
Favourite won (SP)
2/11 (18.2%)
Quinella top 1
3/11 (27.3%)
Quinella in top 3
4/11 (36.4%)
Forecast top 1
0/11 (0.0%)
Forecast in top 3
3/11 (27.3%)
Tierce top 1
0/11 (0.0%)
Tierce in top 3
0/11 (0.0%)
First 4 top 1
0/11 (0.0%)
First 4 in top 3
0/11 (0.0%)
By meeting
2026-10-01 · Sha Tin
11 races
- Win — top pick: 2/11 (18.2%)
- Win — in top 3 picks: 6/11 (54.5%)
- Top pick placed: 7/11 (63.6%)
- Favourite won (SP): 2/11 (18.2%)
Per-race results
| Date | Venue | R | Race | Actual | Model top 3 | Hybrid vs actual | Hits | QIN / FCT / TCE / F4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-01 | Sha Tin | 1 | NANNING HANDICAP | 7-2-1 | 1 SUNNY Q 8.4%5 GOOD FORTUNE 8.3%10 VIVA CHALEUR 8.1% | 5-1-10 vs 7-2-1 W1W3Pl | W1W3PlQINFCTTCEF4 | QIN 1-5 vs 2-7 FCT 1-5 vs 7-2 TCE 1-5-10 vs 7-2-1 F4 1-5-10-12 vs 1-2-4-7 |
| 2026-10-01 | Sha Tin | 2 | SHENYANG HANDICAP | 9-10-7 | 1 AMAZING DUCK 9.1%6 GENERAL SMART 8.8%9 ALL ARE MINE 8.7% | 1-6-9 vs 9-10-7 W1W3Pl | W1W3PlQINFCTTCEF4 | QIN 1-6 vs 9-10 FCT 1-6 vs 9-10 TCE 1-6-9 vs 9-10-7 F4 1-6-9-10 vs 1-7-9-10 |
| 2026-10-01 | Sha Tin | 3 | THE NATIONAL DAY CUP (HANDICAP) | 4-7-6 | 4 COLOURFUL KING 14.2%2 CRIMSON FLASH 13.8%6 BOTTOMUPTOGETHER 13.4% | 4-2-7 vs 4-7-6 W1W3Pl | W1W3PlQINFCTTCEF4 | QIN 2-4 vs 4-7 FCT 4-2 vs 4-7 TCE 4-2-6 vs 4-7-6 F4 2-4-6-7 vs 1-4-6-7 |
| 2026-10-01 | Sha Tin | 4 | CHENGDU HANDICAP | 7-6-3 | 7 SOLID CAR 9.3%10 VOYAGE BOSS 9.2%14 STAR SATYR 7.8% | 7-10-14 vs 7-6-3 W1W3Pl | W1W3PlQINFCTTCEF4 | QIN 7-10 vs 6-7 FCT 7-10 vs 7-6 TCE 7-10-14 vs 7-6-3 F4 5-7-10-14 vs 3-6-7-14 |
| 2026-10-01 | Sha Tin | 5 | HANGZHOU HANDICAP | 3-1-6 | 1 JEDI SPURS 10.0%3 KA YING LIGHTNING 9.1%4 CHARMING BABE 7.9% | 1-3-6 vs 3-1-6 W1W3Pl | W1W3PlQINFCTTCEF4 | QIN 1-3 vs 1-3 FCT 1-3 vs 3-1 TCE 1-3-4 vs 3-1-6 F4 1-3-4-6 vs 1-2-3-6 |
| 2026-10-01 | Sha Tin | 6 | JINAN HANDICAP | 3-1-8 | 1 VICTOR SUPREME 8.7%3 SUPER GOLDENDRAGON 8.7%13 STAR BROSE 8.2% | 3-1-13 vs 3-1-8 W1W3Pl | W1W3PlQINFCTTCEF4 | QIN 1-3 vs 1-3 FCT 1-3 vs 3-1 TCE 1-3-13 vs 3-1-8 F4 1-3-7-13 vs 1-3-4-8 |
| 2026-10-01 | Sha Tin | 7 | CHONGQING HANDICAP | 7-10-11 | 6 SPIRITED STEED 9.2%10 KA YING RADIANCE 8.9%2 LIGHT YEARS GLORY 8.3% | 6-10-2 vs 7-10-11 W1W3Pl | W1W3PlQINFCTTCEF4 | QIN 6-10 vs 7-10 FCT 6-10 vs 7-10 TCE 6-10-2 vs 7-10-11 F4 2-6-10-14 vs 2-7-10-11 |
| 2026-10-01 | Sha Tin | 8 | CHONGQING HANDICAP | 9-4-11 | 5 PRIME ACE 8.9%4 VIRTUS GLORY 8.5%1 ALMIGHTY WARRIOR 8.0% | 5-4-1 vs 9-4-11 W1W3Pl | W1W3PlQINFCTTCEF4 | QIN 4-5 vs 4-9 FCT 5-4 vs 9-4 TCE 5-4-1 vs 9-4-11 F4 1-4-5-8 vs 4-8-9-11 |
| 2026-10-01 | Sha Tin | 9 | BEIJING HANDICAP | 1-2-11 | 2 HOT DELIGHT 10.1%1 SKY JEWELLERY 9.3%12 PUBLIC ATTENTION 9.2% | 2-1-12 vs 1-2-11 W1W3Pl | W1W3PlQINFCTTCEF4 | QIN 1-2 vs 1-2 FCT 2-1 vs 1-2 TCE 2-1-12 vs 1-2-11 F4 1-2-3-12 vs 1-2-9-11 |
| 2026-10-01 | Sha Tin | 10 | TIANJIN HANDICAP | 3-1-7 | 7 SUPERB SPIRIT 8.8%14 MASTER LUCKY 8.7%9 PAPAYA BROSE 8.0% | 14-7-9 vs 3-1-7 W1W3Pl | W1W3PlQINFCTTCEF4 | QIN 7-14 vs 1-3 FCT 7-14 vs 3-1 TCE 7-14-9 vs 3-1-7 F4 7-8-9-14 vs 1-3-7-14 |
| 2026-10-01 | Sha Tin | 11 | SHANGHAI HANDICAP | 6-11-13 | 10 LUCRATIVE EIGHT 8.3%8 SPICY STANDARD 8.2%9 THE HEIR 8.1% | 10-9-8 vs 6-11-13 W1W3Pl | W1W3PlQINFCTTCEF4 | QIN 8-10 vs 6-11 FCT 10-8 vs 6-11 TCE 10-8-9 vs 6-11-13 F4 6-8-9-10 vs 6-7-11-13 |
- Analysis only — not betting advice. Hypothetical ROI uses official HKJC dividends per HK$10.
- Official results: racing.hkjc.com LocalResults (EN + 繁中); fetched 2026-10-08T03:05:38.130Z.
- Last pre-jump snapshot per race: R1 09:25 (215m pre-post); R2 09:25 (245m pre-post); R3 09:25 (275m pre-post); R4 09:25 (310m pre-post); R5 09:25 (340m pre-post); R6 09:25 (370m pre-post); R7 09:25 (405m pre-post); R8 09:25 (435m pre-post); R9 09:25 (465m pre-post); R10 09:25 (500m pre-post); R11 09:25 (535m pre-post).
- Snapshots captured at/after post time are excluded from 'pre-jump' (they reflect closed pools ≈ SP).
- Morning brief ranking: data/predictions/2026-10-01-st-morning.json (scratched runners removed, probabilities renormalised).
- Exotic hits: top1 = model's #1 combination; top3 = actual combination within model's first three combinations (same derivation as race pages).
- R1: last stored pre-jump snapshot was 215 min before post (09:25 HKT) — late market moves not captured
- R2: last stored pre-jump snapshot was 245 min before post (09:25 HKT) — late market moves not captured
- R3: last stored pre-jump snapshot was 275 min before post (09:25 HKT) — late market moves not captured
- R4: last stored pre-jump snapshot was 310 min before post (09:25 HKT) — late market moves not captured
- R5: last stored pre-jump snapshot was 340 min before post (09:25 HKT) — late market moves not captured
- R6: last stored pre-jump snapshot was 370 min before post (09:25 HKT) — late market moves not captured
- R7: last stored pre-jump snapshot was 405 min before post (09:25 HKT) — late market moves not captured
- R8: last stored pre-jump snapshot was 435 min before post (09:25 HKT) — late market moves not captured
- R9: last stored pre-jump snapshot was 465 min before post (09:25 HKT) — late market moves not captured
- R10: last stored pre-jump snapshot was 500 min before post (09:25 HKT) — late market moves not captured
- R11: last stored pre-jump snapshot was 535 min before post (09:25 HKT) — late market moves not captured
27 Sep 2026 Sha Tin (11 races) — pre-race snapshots vs results
Single-meeting backtest. Morning brief = form-only hybrid published before pools opened (no odds). hybridV2 / hybrid (V1) re-scored with the last stored WIN snapshot before each race's post time (open = morning snapshot for 走勢盤). Favourite baselines use the last pre-race snapshot and the official SP. ROI rows are hypothetical flat HK$10 stakes using official dividends.
Odds mode: last pre-jump WIN snapshot (hybrid presets); SP & morning-open as sensitivity
Preset comparison (pre-race snapshot odds + form)
Same 11 races: morning brief (no odds), hybrid V2 / V1 at the last pre-jump snapshot, and favourite baselines (last snapshot and SP).
| Preset | Win — top pick | Win — in top 3 picks | Top pick placed | Any top-3 pick placed |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morning brief (form only, no odds) | 2/11 (18.2%) | 4/11 (36.4%) | 4/11 (36.4%) | 8/11 (72.7%) |
| Hybrid V2 @ last pre-jump snapshotLive | 2/11 (18.2%) | 4/11 (36.4%) | 3/11 (27.3%) | 9/11 (81.8%) |
| Hybrid V1 @ last pre-jump snapshot | 2/11 (18.2%) | 4/11 (36.4%) | 3/11 (27.3%) | 8/11 (72.7%) |
| Hybrid V3 (shadow, real J/T point-in-time) @ last pre-jump snapshot | 2/11 (18.2%) | 5/11 (45.5%) | 3/11 (27.3%) | 10/11 (90.9%) |
| v2 form + pace @ last pre-jump snapshot | 3/11 (27.3%) | 4/11 (36.4%) | 4/11 (36.4%) | 7/11 (63.6%) |
| Market-lean @ last pre-jump snapshot | 3/11 (27.3%) | 5/11 (45.5%) | 6/11 (54.5%) | 11/11 (100.0%) |
| Favourite — last pre-jump snapshot | 3/11 (27.3%) | 6/11 (54.5%) | 5/11 (45.5%) | 11/11 (100.0%) |
| Favourite — official SP | 3/11 (27.3%) | 5/11 (45.5%) | 6/11 (54.5%) | 10/11 (90.9%) |
Pre-race vs SP
Pre-race: stored snapshots (morning open + last snapshot before each post time); SP from official results
Odds-source sensitivity (hybrid presets)
| Odds source | Win — top pick | Win — in top 3 picks | Top pick placed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hybrid V2 · Last pre-race snap | 2/11 (18.2%) | 4/11 (36.4%) | 3/11 (27.3%) |
| Hybrid V2 · Morning / open | 2/11 (18.2%) | 4/11 (36.4%) | 3/11 (27.3%) |
| Hybrid V2 · SP (results) | 2/11 (18.2%) | 6/11 (54.5%) | 4/11 (36.4%) |
| Hybrid V1 · Last pre-race snap | 2/11 (18.2%) | 4/11 (36.4%) | 3/11 (27.3%) |
| Hybrid V1 · Morning / open | 2/11 (18.2%) | 4/11 (36.4%) | 3/11 (27.3%) |
| Hybrid V1 · SP (results) | 2/11 (18.2%) | 6/11 (54.5%) | 4/11 (36.4%) |
Per race: winner vs each preset's top pick
WIN = top pick won; PL = top pick placed (1st–3rd); ✗ = unplaced. Odds shown are those the preset used (morning brief had none).
| R | Winner (SP) | 1-2-3 | Morning brief | Hybrid V1 | Hybrid V2 | Hybrid V3 (shadow) | Fav (last snap) | Fav (SP) | Last snap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R1 12:45 | #8 WAVE GARDEN (35) | 8-9-3 | #6ONLY U✗ | #6ONLY U✗ @ 2.8 | #6ONLY U✗ @ 2.8 | #6ONLY U✗ @ 2.8 | #6ONLY U✗ @ 2.8 | #1ROBOT KNIGHT✗ @ 4.7 | 09:19 (205m pre) |
| R2 13:15 | #8 APEX GLORY (3) | 8-4-7 | #10JUST FOLLOW ME✗ | #10JUST FOLLOW ME✗ @ 6.1 | #10JUST FOLLOW ME✗ @ 6.1 | #10JUST FOLLOW ME✗ @ 6.1 | #8APEX GLORYWIN @ 4.5 | #8APEX GLORYWIN @ 3 | 09:19 (235m pre) |
| R3 13:45 | #12 VIGOR ELLEEGANT (13) | 12-10-1 | #11DRACO✗ | #2DOUBLE BINGO✗ @ 8.4 | #2DOUBLE BINGO✗ @ 8.4 | #11DRACO✗ @ 5 | #1FOREVER FANCYPL @ 4.6 | #11DRACO✗ @ 4.2 | 09:19 (265m pre) |
| R4 14:15 | #6 FLOWING RICHES (4.5) | 6-11-12 | #1RAPID PHANTOM✗ | #1RAPID PHANTOM✗ @ 4.8 | #1RAPID PHANTOM✗ @ 4.8 | #1RAPID PHANTOM✗ @ 4.8 | #1RAPID PHANTOM✗ @ 4.8 | #11ZOUPER FELLOWPL @ 4.3 | 09:19 (295m pre) |
| R5 15:05 | #1 CAUSEWAY KING (5.4) | 1-5-11 | #6BRIGHT MORTAR✗ | #6BRIGHT MORTAR✗ @ 2.2 | #6BRIGHT MORTAR✗ @ 2.2 | #6BRIGHT MORTAR✗ @ 2.2 | #6BRIGHT MORTAR✗ @ 2.2 | #6BRIGHT MORTAR✗ @ 3.4 | 09:19 (345m pre) |
| R6 15:35 | #10 CHIU CHOW GOLF (20) | 10-13-9 | #13SUPER LOVEPL | #1ETALON OR✗ @ 6.9 | #1ETALON OR✗ @ 6.9 | #4HAROLD WIN✗ @ 7.2 | #1ETALON OR✗ @ 6.9 | #4HAROLD WIN✗ @ 4.6 | 09:19 (375m pre) |
| R7 16:05 | #8 BUSTLING CITY (1.7) | 8-12-1 | #8BUSTLING CITYWIN | #8BUSTLING CITYWIN @ 1.9 | #8BUSTLING CITYWIN @ 1.9 | #8BUSTLING CITYWIN @ 1.9 | #8BUSTLING CITYWIN @ 1.9 | #8BUSTLING CITYWIN @ 1.7 | 09:19 (405m pre) |
| R8 16:35 | #3 INVINCIBLE IBIS (8.8) | 3-1-7 | #6LITTLE PARADISE✗ | #6LITTLE PARADISE✗ @ 1.9 | #6LITTLE PARADISE✗ @ 1.9 | #6LITTLE PARADISE✗ @ 1.9 | #6LITTLE PARADISE✗ @ 1.9 | #6LITTLE PARADISE✗ @ 1.9 | 09:19 (435m pre) |
| R9 17:10 | #8 PACKING FIGHTER (1.7) | 8-1-11 | #8PACKING FIGHTERWIN | #8PACKING FIGHTERWIN @ 2.5 | #8PACKING FIGHTERWIN @ 2.5 | #8PACKING FIGHTERWIN @ 2.5 | #8PACKING FIGHTERWIN @ 2.5 | #8PACKING FIGHTERWIN @ 1.7 | 09:19 (470m pre) |
| R10 17:45 | #7 VICTOR THE WINNER (14) | 7-9-8 | #3RISING FORCE✗ | #3RISING FORCE✗ @ 3.3 | #3RISING FORCE✗ @ 3.3 | #3RISING FORCE✗ @ 3.3 | #3RISING FORCE✗ @ 3.3 | #9TURQUOISE VELOCITYPL @ 3.6 | 09:19 (505m pre) |
| R11 18:20 | #3 AEROINVINCIBLE (5.8) | 3-6-1 | #6CIRCUIT CHAMPIONPL | #6CIRCUIT CHAMPIONPL @ 3.3 | #6CIRCUIT CHAMPIONPL @ 3.3 | #6CIRCUIT CHAMPIONPL @ 3.3 | #6CIRCUIT CHAMPIONPL @ 3.3 | #6CIRCUIT CHAMPIONPL @ 2 | 09:19 (540m pre) |
Per preset: place & exotic hits
Top1 = model's #1 combination; in3 = actual combination within the model's first three. Top-3 placed = how many of the three picks per race finished 1st–3rd (out of races × 3).
| Preset | Win top1 | Winner in top3 | Top1 placed | Top-3 placed | QIN 1/3 | FCT 1/3 | TCE 1/3 | F4 1/3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morning brief (form only, no odds) | 2/11 (18.2%) | 4/11 (36.4%) | 4/11 (36.4%) | 11/33 (33.3%) | 2/11 / 3/11 | 1/11 / 2/11 | 0/11 / 0/11 | 0/11 / 0/11 |
| Hybrid V2 @ last pre-jump snapshot | 2/11 (18.2%) | 4/11 (36.4%) | 3/11 (27.3%) | 12/33 (36.4%) | 2/11 / 3/11 | 1/11 / 2/11 | 0/11 / 0/11 | 0/11 / 0/11 |
| Hybrid V1 @ last pre-jump snapshot | 2/11 (18.2%) | 4/11 (36.4%) | 3/11 (27.3%) | 11/33 (33.3%) | 2/11 / 3/11 | 1/11 / 2/11 | 0/11 / 0/11 | 0/11 / 0/11 |
| Hybrid V3 (shadow, real J/T point-in-time) @ last pre-jump snapshot | 2/11 (18.2%) | 5/11 (45.5%) | 3/11 (27.3%) | 13/33 (39.4%) | 2/11 / 3/11 | 1/11 / 2/11 | 0/11 / 0/11 | 0/11 / 0/11 |
| Favourite — last pre-jump snapshot | 3/11 (27.3%) | 6/11 (54.5%) | 5/11 (45.5%) | 14/33 (42.4%) | 2/11 / 3/11 | 1/11 / 2/11 | 0/11 / 0/11 | 0/11 / 0/11 |
| Favourite — official SP | 3/11 (27.3%) | 5/11 (45.5%) | 6/11 (54.5%) | 17/33 (51.5%) | 4/11 / 4/11 | 2/11 / 4/11 | 1/11 / 1/11 | 0/11 / 1/11 |
| Market-lean @ last pre-jump snapshot | 3/11 (27.3%) | 5/11 (45.5%) | 6/11 (54.5%) | 14/33 (42.4%) | 2/11 / 2/11 | 1/11 / 2/11 | 0/11 / 0/11 | 0/11 / 0/11 |
| v2 form + pace @ last pre-jump snapshot | 3/11 (27.3%) | 4/11 (36.4%) | 4/11 (36.4%) | 11/33 (33.3%) | 2/11 / 3/11 | 1/11 / 3/11 | 0/11 / 0/11 | 0/11 / 0/11 |
Hypothetical return — flat HK$10 on each top pick
Purely hypothetical, using official HKJC dividends per HK$10. Not betting advice and not indicative of future results. One meeting is a tiny, high-variance sample.
| Preset | Staked | Win return | Win ROI | Place return | Place ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morning brief (form only, no odds) | $110 | $34.5 | -68.6% | $66.6 | -39.5% |
| Hybrid V2 @ last pre-jump snapshot | $110 | $34.5 | -68.6% | $34.1 | -69% |
| Hybrid V1 @ last pre-jump snapshot | $110 | $34.5 | -68.6% | $34.1 | -69% |
| Hybrid V3 (shadow, real J/T point-in-time) @ last pre-jump snapshot | $110 | $34.5 | -68.6% | $34.1 | -69% |
| Favourite — last pre-jump snapshot | $110 | $65 | -40.9% | $72.1 | -34.5% |
| Favourite — official SP | $110 | $65 | -40.9% | $82.1 | -25.4% |
| Market-lean @ last pre-jump snapshot | $110 | $65 | -40.9% | $104.6 | -4.9% |
| v2 form + pace @ last pre-jump snapshot | $110 | $123 | 11.8% | $54.1 | -50.8% |
走勢盤 study (stored snapshots only)
open = morning snapshot (~09:19 HKT); lastPre = latest stored snapshot before post time; anyTime = lowest odds in any stored pre-post snapshot; SP = official results Win Odds (SP-basis is hindsight — not knowable before the jump)
| Group | Runners | Win rate | Place rate | Hyp. win return ($10 each) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All runners with a morning price | 139 | 11/139 (7.9%) | 33/139 (23.7%) | $1148.5 / $1390 |
| Shortened ≥25% (open → last pre-jump snapshot) | 0 | 0/0 (0.0%) | 0/0 (0.0%) | $0 / $0 |
| Shortened ≥25% at any stored pre-race snapshot | 0 | 0/0 (0.0%) | 0/0 (0.0%) | $0 / $0 |
| Steady (neither) | 139 | 11/139 (7.9%) | 33/139 (23.7%) | $1148.5 / $1390 |
| Drifted ≥50% (open → last pre-jump snapshot) | 0 | 0/0 (0.0%) | 0/0 (0.0%) | $0 / $0 |
| Shortened ≥25% open → SP (hindsight) | 28 | 6/28 (21.4%) | 17/28 (60.7%) | $485 / $280 |
| Drifted ≥50% open → SP (hindsight) | 56 | 1/56 (1.8%) | 5/56 (8.9%) | $88.5 / $560 |
Open → last pre-jump snapshot: shortened ≥25%
None
Shortened ≥25% at any stored pre-race snapshot (by low)
None
Open → SP: shortened ≥25% (hindsight)
| R / No. | Horse | Open | Low (pre) | Last pre | SP | Move | Finish |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R4 #11 | ZOUPER FELLOW 飛來霸 | 13 | 13 09:19 | 13 | 4.3 | -67% | 2 |
| R8 #5 | COPARTNER PRANCE 合夥奔馳 | 18 | 18 09:19 | 18 | 6.6 | -63% | 4 |
| R10 #9 | TURQUOISE VELOCITY 興馳千里 | 9.2 | 9.2 09:19 | 9.2 | 3.6 | -61% | 2 |
| R1 #5 | HAPPY ACTION 喜行 | 13 | 13 09:19 | 13 | 6.1 | -53% | 7 |
| R9 #11 | SHAMUS STORM 紫荊拼搏 | 21 | 21 09:19 | 21 | 10 | -52% | 3 |
| R5 #2 | CENTRAL BANK 怡傲錢莊 | 9.1 | 9.1 09:19 | 9.1 | 4.5 | -50% | 4 |
| R4 #6 | FLOWING RICHES 常嚐發財 | 8.8 | 8.8 09:19 | 8.8 | 4.5 | -49% | 1 |
| R3 #10 | AQUAMAN 海王 | 12 | 12 09:19 | 12 | 6.2 | -48% | 2 |
| R3 #12 | VIGOR ELLEEGANT 銳高 | 25 | 25 09:19 | 25 | 13 | -48% | 1 |
| R9 #14 | QUANTUM LEGEND 量子力奇 | 23 | 23 09:19 | 23 | 12 | -48% | 6 |
| R5 #1 | CAUSEWAY KING 高士威勁 | 10 | 10 09:19 | 10 | 5.4 | -46% | 1 |
| R4 #13 | LET'S HAVE FUN 共創歡欣 | 14 | 14 09:19 | 14 | 7.9 | -44% | 5 |
| R11 #7 | COMPLETE UNKNOWN 名揚四海 | 12 | 12 09:19 | 12 | 6.9 | -43% | 12 |
| R11 #6 | CIRCUIT CHAMPION 綫路英雄 | 3.3 | 3.3 09:19 | 3.3 | 2 | -39% | 2 |
| R7 #1 | AURORA PATCH 錶之極光 | 8 | 8 09:19 | 8 | 4.9 | -39% | 3 |
| R6 #4 | HAROLD WIN 哈羅威 | 7.2 | 7.2 09:19 | 7.2 | 4.6 | -36% | 7 |
| R10 #1 | STORM RIDER 風雲武士 | 31 | 31 09:19 | 31 | 20 | -35% | 5 |
| R2 #4 | LITTLE MONSTER 小魔怪 | 7.1 | 7.1 09:19 | 7.1 | 4.6 | -35% | 2 |
| R6 #2 | TURIN CHAMPIONS 都靈冠星 | 15 | 15 09:19 | 15 | 9.8 | -35% | 10 |
| R8 #1 | GALAXY PATCH 錶之銀河 | 8.6 | 8.6 09:19 | 8.6 | 5.7 | -34% | 2 |
| R1 #10 | VON BAER 建測精英 | 18 | 18 09:19 | 18 | 12 | -33% | 11 |
| R2 #8 | APEX GLORY 領駿輝煌 | 4.5 | 4.5 09:19 | 4.5 | 3 | -33% | 1 |
| R5 #12 | DASHING PEACH 桃花俊 | 54 | 54 09:19 | 54 | 36 | -33% | 11 |
| R9 #8 | PACKING FIGHTER 包裝戰仕 | 2.5 | 2.5 09:19 | 2.5 | 1.7 | -32% | 1 |
| R1 #3 | DAILY TROPHY 日日獎 | 9.1 | 9.1 09:19 | 9.1 | 6.2 | -32% | 3 |
| R6 #9 | GHORGAN 確好勁 | 7.3 | 7.3 09:19 | 7.3 | 5.2 | -29% | 3 |
| R6 #10 | CHIU CHOW GOLF 潮州高球 | 28 | 28 09:19 | 28 | 20 | -29% | 1 |
| R8 #7 | STORMY GROVE 紫荊盛勢 | 21 | 21 09:19 | 21 | 15 | -29% | 3 |
Late moves after the last stored snapshot (SP ÷ last pre ≤0.75 or ≥1.5)
| R / No. | Horse | Open | Low (pre) | Last pre | SP | SP vs pre | Finish |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R4 #11 | ZOUPER FELLOW 飛來霸 | 13 | 13 09:19 | 13 | 4.3 | -67% | 2 |
| R8 #5 | COPARTNER PRANCE 合夥奔馳 | 18 | 18 09:19 | 18 | 6.6 | -63% | 4 |
| R10 #9 | TURQUOISE VELOCITY 興馳千里 | 9.2 | 9.2 09:19 | 9.2 | 3.6 | -61% | 2 |
| R1 #5 | HAPPY ACTION 喜行 | 13 | 13 09:19 | 13 | 6.1 | -53% | 7 |
| R9 #11 | SHAMUS STORM 紫荊拼搏 | 21 | 21 09:19 | 21 | 10 | -52% | 3 |
| R5 #2 | CENTRAL BANK 怡傲錢莊 | 9.1 | 9.1 09:19 | 9.1 | 4.5 | -50% | 4 |
| R4 #6 | FLOWING RICHES 常嚐發財 | 8.8 | 8.8 09:19 | 8.8 | 4.5 | -49% | 1 |
| R3 #10 | AQUAMAN 海王 | 12 | 12 09:19 | 12 | 6.2 | -48% | 2 |
| R3 #12 | VIGOR ELLEEGANT 銳高 | 25 | 25 09:19 | 25 | 13 | -48% | 1 |
| R9 #14 | QUANTUM LEGEND 量子力奇 | 23 | 23 09:19 | 23 | 12 | -48% | 6 |
| R5 #1 | CAUSEWAY KING 高士威勁 | 10 | 10 09:19 | 10 | 5.4 | -46% | 1 |
| R4 #13 | LET'S HAVE FUN 共創歡欣 | 14 | 14 09:19 | 14 | 7.9 | -44% | 5 |
| R11 #7 | COMPLETE UNKNOWN 名揚四海 | 12 | 12 09:19 | 12 | 6.9 | -43% | 12 |
| R11 #6 | CIRCUIT CHAMPION 綫路英雄 | 3.3 | 3.3 09:19 | 3.3 | 2 | -39% | 2 |
| R7 #1 | AURORA PATCH 錶之極光 | 8 | 8 09:19 | 8 | 4.9 | -39% | 3 |
| R6 #4 | HAROLD WIN 哈羅威 | 7.2 | 7.2 09:19 | 7.2 | 4.6 | -36% | 7 |
| R10 #1 | STORM RIDER 風雲武士 | 31 | 31 09:19 | 31 | 20 | -35% | 5 |
| R2 #4 | LITTLE MONSTER 小魔怪 | 7.1 | 7.1 09:19 | 7.1 | 4.6 | -35% | 2 |
| R6 #2 | TURIN CHAMPIONS 都靈冠星 | 15 | 15 09:19 | 15 | 9.8 | -35% | 10 |
| R8 #1 | GALAXY PATCH 錶之銀河 | 8.6 | 8.6 09:19 | 8.6 | 5.7 | -34% | 2 |
| R1 #10 | VON BAER 建測精英 | 18 | 18 09:19 | 18 | 12 | -33% | 11 |
| R2 #8 | APEX GLORY 領駿輝煌 | 4.5 | 4.5 09:19 | 4.5 | 3 | -33% | 1 |
| R5 #12 | DASHING PEACH 桃花俊 | 54 | 54 09:19 | 54 | 36 | -33% | 11 |
| R9 #8 | PACKING FIGHTER 包裝戰仕 | 2.5 | 2.5 09:19 | 2.5 | 1.7 | -32% | 1 |
| R1 #3 | DAILY TROPHY 日日獎 | 9.1 | 9.1 09:19 | 9.1 | 6.2 | -32% | 3 |
| R6 #9 | GHORGAN 確好勁 | 7.3 | 7.3 09:19 | 7.3 | 5.2 | -29% | 3 |
| R6 #10 | CHIU CHOW GOLF 潮州高球 | 28 | 28 09:19 | 28 | 20 | -29% | 1 |
| R8 #7 | STORMY GROVE 紫荊盛勢 | 21 | 21 09:19 | 21 | 15 | -29% | 3 |
| R5 #8 | LUCKY DOCTOR 幸運大夫 | 10 | 10 09:19 | 10 | 15 | 50% | 6 |
| R11 #4 | BEAUTY CRESCENT 同樣美麗 | 12 | 12 09:19 | 12 | 18 | 50% | 6 |
| R4 #10 | SHOW ME YOUR LOVE 紅悅舍 | 35 | 35 09:19 | 35 | 53 | 51% | 11 |
| R5 #6 | BRIGHT MORTAR 砂漿麒星 | 2.2 | 2.2 09:19 | 2.2 | 3.4 | 54% | 5 |
| R3 #14 | PRINCE ALEX 大力猴王 | 36 | 36 09:19 | 36 | 56 | 56% | 6 |
| R8 #2 | HELIOS EXPRESS 驕陽明駒 | 6.4 | 6.4 09:19 | 6.4 | 10 | 56% | 8 |
| R9 #9 | BIG RETURN 大回報 | 16 | 16 09:19 | 16 | 25 | 56% | 5 |
| R6 #13 | SUPER LOVE 戀愛狂 | 7 | 7 09:19 | 7 | 11 | 57% | 2 |
| R7 #3 | RIDING TOGETHER 同心同樂 | 21 | 21 09:19 | 21 | 33 | 57% | 6 |
| R8 #3 | INVINCIBLE IBIS 白鷺金剛 | 5.6 | 5.6 09:19 | 5.6 | 8.8 | 57% | 1 |
| R4 #12 | SUPREME VOYAGER 杭至尊 | 8.9 | 8.9 09:19 | 8.9 | 14 | 57% | 3 |
| R9 #10 | NUCLEOZOR 奇異果 | 12 | 12 09:19 | 12 | 19 | 58% | 8 |
| R10 #8 | SALON S 極上紗瓏 | 4.9 | 4.9 09:19 | 4.9 | 7.8 | 59% | 3 |
| R2 #9 | RYUI KOKOROE 龍威心得 | 13 | 13 09:19 | 13 | 21 | 62% | 6 |
| R1 #11 | HANDSOME BLOND 勝在有型 | 44 | 44 09:19 | 44 | 72 | 64% | 12 |
| R7 #5 | FOUR STARS ALIGN 何方來聲 | 6.7 | 6.7 09:19 | 6.7 | 11 | 64% | 4 |
| R8 #9 | SOLEIL FIGHTER 太陽勇士 | 31 | 31 09:19 | 31 | 52 | 68% | 5 |
| R11 #5 | THUNDER BLAZE 風火輪 | 25 | 25 09:19 | 25 | 42 | 68% | 4 |
| R11 #14 | DRAGON JOY 皇仁歡星 | 16 | 16 09:19 | 16 | 27 | 69% | 13 |
| R9 #1 | AMAZING PARTNERS 活力拍檔 | 5.2 | 5.2 09:19 | 5.2 | 9 | 73% | 2 |
| R10 #4 | SKY TRUST 信心星 | 15 | 15 09:19 | 15 | 26 | 73% | 11 |
| R1 #6 | ONLY U 銳一 | 2.8 | 2.8 09:19 | 2.8 | 4.9 | 75% | 4 |
| R7 #6 | NOTTHESILLYONE 大番薯 | 12 | 12 09:19 | 12 | 21 | 75% | 8 |
| R1 #4 | RISING ELITE 旭能精英 | 22 | 22 09:19 | 22 | 39 | 77% | 9 |
| R1 #7 | MR GOOD VIBES 駿先生 | 32 | 32 09:19 | 32 | 57 | 78% | 10 |
| R11 #10 | FORZA TORO 哥倫布 | 9.5 | 9.5 09:19 | 9.5 | 17 | 79% | 9 |
| R4 #5 | HERO MASTERMIND 盈智多寶 | 36 | 36 09:19 | 36 | 66 | 83% | 10 |
| R9 #4 | SOLID WIN 一定掂 | 18 | 18 09:19 | 18 | 33 | 83% | 7 |
| R10 #6 | YOUNG CHAMPION 競駿輝煌 | 12 | 12 09:19 | 12 | 22 | 83% | 8 |
| R7 #10 | DEVAS TWELVE 十二神將 | 45 | 45 09:19 | 45 | 84 | 87% | 11 |
| R2 #12 | GLACIATED 金多囍 | 5.3 | 5.3 09:19 | 5.3 | 9.9 | 87% | 12 |
| R2 #3 | ULTRA BOLT 紫電王 | 76 | 76 09:19 | 76 | 145 | 91% | 10 |
| R3 #7 | SWAGGER BRO 猛將兄 | 14 | 14 09:19 | 14 | 27 | 93% | 14 |
| R4 #8 | GIANT SPIRIT 巨靈神 | 20 | 20 09:19 | 20 | 41 | 105% | 9 |
| R4 #3 | HARVEST MOON 豐才 | 5.3 | 5.3 09:19 | 5.3 | 11 | 108% | 8 |
| R4 #7 | FLYING TING LOK 螢影飛馳 | 34 | 34 09:19 | 34 | 71 | 109% | 14 |
| R10 #11 | PAKISTAN LEGACY 巴基之勝 | 16 | 16 09:19 | 16 | 34 | 113% | 12 |
| R4 #2 | RUN RUN SUNRISE 日出東方 | 10 | 10 09:19 | 10 | 22 | 120% | 12 |
| R2 #1 | NOT USUAL DOUBLE 成就非凡 | 15 | 15 09:19 | 15 | 34 | 127% | 4 |
| R9 #7 | VIOLET STAR 紫辰之星 | 15 | 15 09:19 | 15 | 34 | 127% | 12 |
| R7 #7 | HOTT SHOTT 綠色鐵蹄 | 42 | 42 09:19 | 42 | 96 | 129% | 9 |
| R9 #5 | FLYING LUCK 昭易搵 | 18 | 18 09:19 | 18 | 42 | 133% | 11 |
| R6 #7 | HEY BROS 團結巴打 | 60 | 60 09:19 | 60 | 144 | 140% | 14 |
| R11 #8 | ENDEARED 安泰 | 12 | 12 09:19 | 12 | 29 | 142% | 10 |
| R6 #14 | WORD OF KINDNESS 良言一句 | 38 | 38 09:19 | 38 | 92 | 142% | 12 |
| R2 #6 | KYOTO SPRING 機緣燦爛 | 21 | 21 09:19 | 21 | 52 | 148% | 9 |
| R10 #2 | MUGEN 綠族無限 | 16 | 16 09:19 | 16 | 40 | 150% | 10 |
| R11 #9 | NORTHERN FIRE BALL 北地烈馬 | 36 | 36 09:19 | 36 | 92 | 156% | 14 |
| R6 #11 | GOLDEN GUNNERS 金鎗寶駒 | 43 | 43 09:19 | 43 | 110 | 156% | 13 |
| R9 #3 | FALLON 快路 | 17 | 17 09:19 | 17 | 45 | 165% | 10 |
| R11 #12 | THE BOOM BOX 膨才 | 23 | 23 09:19 | 23 | 62 | 170% | 5 |
| R4 #4 | KINGMAN REEF 澄心知遇 | 13 | 13 09:19 | 13 | 37 | 185% | 13 |
| R9 #12 | VOYAGE HORIZON 遨遊飛翔 | 46 | 46 09:19 | 46 | 131 | 185% | 14 |
| R6 #6 | GREEN AUTUMN 綠色最威 | 18 | 18 09:19 | 18 | 52 | 189% | 11 |
| R11 #11 | PRIME SUCCESS 龍城上將 | 33 | 33 09:19 | 33 | 102 | 209% | 8 |
| R11 #13 | VULCANUS 星火燎原 | 34 | 34 09:19 | 34 | 139 | 309% | 11 |
Open → last pre-jump snapshot: drifted ≥50%
None
Data gaps
- R1: last stored pre-jump snapshot was 205 min before post (09:19 HKT) — late market moves not captured
- R2: last stored pre-jump snapshot was 235 min before post (09:19 HKT) — late market moves not captured
- R3: last stored pre-jump snapshot was 265 min before post (09:19 HKT) — late market moves not captured
- R4: last stored pre-jump snapshot was 295 min before post (09:19 HKT) — late market moves not captured
- R5: last stored pre-jump snapshot was 345 min before post (09:19 HKT) — late market moves not captured
- R6: last stored pre-jump snapshot was 375 min before post (09:19 HKT) — late market moves not captured
- R7: last stored pre-jump snapshot was 405 min before post (09:19 HKT) — late market moves not captured
- R8: last stored pre-jump snapshot was 435 min before post (09:19 HKT) — late market moves not captured
- R9: last stored pre-jump snapshot was 470 min before post (09:19 HKT) — late market moves not captured
- R10: last stored pre-jump snapshot was 505 min before post (09:19 HKT) — late market moves not captured
- R11: last stored pre-jump snapshot was 540 min before post (09:19 HKT) — late market moves not captured
Summary metrics
Detailed exotic metrics below are for the hybridV2 (live primary) preset when available, else hybrid V1.
Win — top pick
2/11 (18.2%)
Win — in top 3 picks
4/11 (36.4%)
Top pick placed
3/11 (27.3%)
Any top-3 pick placed
9/11 (81.8%)
Favourite won (SP)
3/11 (27.3%)
Quinella top 1
2/11 (18.2%)
Quinella in top 3
3/11 (27.3%)
Forecast top 1
1/11 (9.1%)
Forecast in top 3
2/11 (18.2%)
Tierce top 1
0/11 (0.0%)
Tierce in top 3
0/11 (0.0%)
First 4 top 1
0/11 (0.0%)
First 4 in top 3
0/11 (0.0%)
By meeting
2026-09-27 · Sha Tin
11 races
- Win — top pick: 2/11 (18.2%)
- Win — in top 3 picks: 4/11 (36.4%)
- Top pick placed: 3/11 (27.3%)
- Favourite won (SP): 3/11 (27.3%)
Per-race results
| Date | Venue | R | Race | Actual | Model top 3 | Hybrid vs actual | Hits | QIN / FCT / TCE / F4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-27 | Sha Tin | 1 | TROPICBIRD HANDICAP | 8-9-3 | 6 ONLY U 11.1%1 ROBOT KNIGHT 9.1%9 GIMME FIVE 8.6% | 6-1-2 vs 8-9-3 W1W3Pl | W1W3PlQINFCTTCEF4 | QIN 1-6 vs 8-9 FCT 6-1 vs 8-9 TCE 6-1-9 vs 8-9-3 F4 1-2-6-9 vs 3-6-8-9 |
| 2026-09-27 | Sha Tin | 2 | PEACOCK HANDICAP | 8-4-7 | 10 JUST FOLLOW ME 9.6%12 GLACIATED 9.3%11 SUPER DRAGON 8.9% | 10-12-11 vs 8-4-7 W1W3Pl | W1W3PlQINFCTTCEF4 | QIN 10-12 vs 4-8 FCT 10-12 vs 8-4 TCE 10-12-11 vs 8-4-7 F4 8-10-11-12 vs 1-4-7-8 |
| 2026-09-27 | Sha Tin | 3 | WOODPECKER HANDICAP | 12-10-1 | 2 DOUBLE BINGO 8.2%11 DRACO 8.2%1 FOREVER FANCY 8.0% | 2-11-1 vs 12-10-1 W1W3Pl | W1W3PlQINFCTTCEF4 | QIN 2-11 vs 10-12 FCT 2-11 vs 12-10 TCE 2-11-1 vs 12-10-1 F4 1-2-8-11 vs 1-6-10-12 |
| 2026-09-27 | Sha Tin | 4 | PARROT HANDICAP | 6-11-12 | 1 RAPID PHANTOM 9.1%13 LET'S HAVE FUN 7.7%3 HARVEST MOON 7.6% | 1-13-3 vs 6-11-12 W1W3Pl | W1W3PlQINFCTTCEF4 | QIN 1-13 vs 6-11 FCT 1-13 vs 6-11 TCE 1-13-3 vs 6-11-12 F4 1-3-12-13 vs 1-6-11-12 |
| 2026-09-27 | Sha Tin | 5 | SWALLOW HANDICAP | 1-5-11 | 6 BRIGHT MORTAR 12.5%5 ARMOUR WAR EAGLE 9.1%10 NOBLE DELUXE 8.7% | 6-5-10 vs 1-5-11 W1W3Pl | W1W3PlQINFCTTCEF4 | QIN 5-6 vs 1-5 FCT 6-5 vs 1-5 TCE 6-5-10 vs 1-5-11 F4 2-5-6-10 vs 1-2-5-11 |
| 2026-09-27 | Sha Tin | 6 | TAILORBIRD HANDICAP | 10-13-9 | 1 ETALON OR 8.2%13 SUPER LOVE 8.1%12 HOT AIR BALLON 8.0% | 1-13-4 vs 10-13-9 W1W3Pl | W1W3PlQINFCTTCEF4 | QIN 1-13 vs 10-13 FCT 1-13 vs 10-13 TCE 1-13-12 vs 10-13-9 F4 1-4-12-13 vs 1-9-10-13 |
| 2026-09-27 | Sha Tin | 7 | HWAMEI HANDICAP | 8-12-1 | 8 BUSTLING CITY 11.9%9 PACKING KING 9.4%1 AURORA PATCH 8.9% | 8-9-1 vs 8-12-1 W1W3Pl | W1W3PlQINFCTTCEF4 | QIN 8-9 vs 8-12 FCT 8-9 vs 8-12 TCE 8-9-1 vs 8-12-1 F4 1-8-9-12 vs 1-5-8-12 |
| 2026-09-27 | Sha Tin | 8 | THE CELEBRATION CUP (HANDICAP) | 3-1-7 | 6 LITTLE PARADISE 13.6%3 INVINCIBLE IBIS 12.6%2 HELIOS EXPRESS 11.7% | 6-3-2 vs 3-1-7 W1W3Pl | W1W3PlQINFCTTCEF4 | QIN 3-6 vs 1-3 FCT 6-3 vs 3-1 TCE 6-3-2 vs 3-1-7 F4 1-2-3-6 vs 1-3-5-7 |
| 2026-09-27 | Sha Tin | 9 | MESIA HANDICAP | 8-1-11 | 8 PACKING FIGHTER 9.6%1 AMAZING PARTNERS 8.6%9 BIG RETURN 7.6% | 8-1-9 vs 8-1-11 W1W3Pl | W1W3PlQINFCTTCEF4 | QIN 1-8 vs 1-8 FCT 8-1 vs 8-1 TCE 8-1-9 vs 8-1-11 F4 1-8-9-13 vs 1-2-8-11 |
| 2026-09-27 | Sha Tin | 10 | MAGPIE HANDICAP | 7-9-8 | 3 RISING FORCE 10.1%10 GENEVA 9.6%8 SALON S 9.2% | 3-10-8 vs 7-9-8 W1W3Pl | W1W3PlQINFCTTCEF4 | QIN 3-10 vs 7-9 FCT 3-10 vs 7-9 TCE 3-10-8 vs 7-9-8 F4 3-8-9-10 vs 7-8-9-10 |
| 2026-09-27 | Sha Tin | 11 | KESTREL HANDICAP | 3-6-1 | 6 CIRCUIT CHAMPION 9.2%3 AEROINVINCIBLE 8.1%10 FORZA TORO 7.8% | 6-3-10 vs 3-6-1 W1W3Pl | W1W3PlQINFCTTCEF4 | QIN 3-6 vs 3-6 FCT 6-3 vs 3-6 TCE 6-3-10 vs 3-6-1 F4 3-6-8-10 vs 1-3-5-6 |
- Analysis only — not betting advice. Hypothetical ROI uses official HKJC dividends per HK$10.
- Official results: racing.hkjc.com LocalResults (EN + 繁中); fetched 2026-09-28T02:24:16.176Z.
- Last pre-jump snapshot per race: R1 09:19 (205m pre-post); R2 09:19 (235m pre-post); R3 09:19 (265m pre-post); R4 09:19 (295m pre-post); R5 09:19 (345m pre-post); R6 09:19 (375m pre-post); R7 09:19 (405m pre-post); R8 09:19 (435m pre-post); R9 09:19 (470m pre-post); R10 09:19 (505m pre-post); R11 09:19 (540m pre-post).
- Snapshots captured at/after post time are excluded from 'pre-jump' (they reflect closed pools ≈ SP).
- Morning brief ranking: data/predictions/2026-09-27-st-morning.json (scratched runners removed, probabilities renormalised).
- Exotic hits: top1 = model's #1 combination; top3 = actual combination within model's first three combinations (same derivation as race pages).
- R1: last stored pre-jump snapshot was 205 min before post (09:19 HKT) — late market moves not captured
- R2: last stored pre-jump snapshot was 235 min before post (09:19 HKT) — late market moves not captured
- R3: last stored pre-jump snapshot was 265 min before post (09:19 HKT) — late market moves not captured
- R4: last stored pre-jump snapshot was 295 min before post (09:19 HKT) — late market moves not captured
- R5: last stored pre-jump snapshot was 345 min before post (09:19 HKT) — late market moves not captured
- R6: last stored pre-jump snapshot was 375 min before post (09:19 HKT) — late market moves not captured
- R7: last stored pre-jump snapshot was 405 min before post (09:19 HKT) — late market moves not captured
- R8: last stored pre-jump snapshot was 435 min before post (09:19 HKT) — late market moves not captured
- R9: last stored pre-jump snapshot was 470 min before post (09:19 HKT) — late market moves not captured
- R10: last stored pre-jump snapshot was 505 min before post (09:19 HKT) — late market moves not captured
- R11: last stored pre-jump snapshot was 540 min before post (09:19 HKT) — late market moves not captured
23 Sep 2026 Happy Valley (9 races) — pre-race snapshots vs results
Single-meeting backtest. Morning brief = form-only hybrid published before pools opened (no odds). hybridV2 / hybrid (V1) re-scored with the last stored WIN snapshot before each race's post time (open = morning snapshot for 走勢盤). Favourite baselines use the last pre-race snapshot and the official SP. ROI rows are hypothetical flat HK$10 stakes using official dividends.
Odds mode: last pre-jump WIN snapshot (hybrid presets); SP & morning-open as sensitivity
Preset comparison (pre-race snapshot odds + form)
Same 9 races: morning brief (no odds), hybrid V2 / V1 at the last pre-jump snapshot, and favourite baselines (last snapshot and SP).
| Preset | Win — top pick | Win — in top 3 picks | Top pick placed | Any top-3 pick placed |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morning brief (form only, no odds) | 0/9 (0.0%) | 2/9 (22.2%) | 4/9 (44.4%) | 6/9 (66.7%) |
| Hybrid V2 @ last pre-jump snapshotLive | 0/9 (0.0%) | 7/9 (77.8%) | 6/9 (66.7%) | 9/9 (100.0%) |
| Hybrid V1 @ last pre-jump snapshot | 0/9 (0.0%) | 6/9 (66.7%) | 6/9 (66.7%) | 9/9 (100.0%) |
| Hybrid V3 (shadow, real J/T point-in-time) @ last pre-jump snapshot | 0/9 (0.0%) | 6/9 (66.7%) | 6/9 (66.7%) | 9/9 (100.0%) |
| v2 form + pace @ last pre-jump snapshot | 1/9 (11.1%) | 8/9 (88.9%) | 4/9 (44.4%) | 9/9 (100.0%) |
| Market-lean @ last pre-jump snapshot | 1/9 (11.1%) | 5/9 (55.6%) | 6/9 (66.7%) | 9/9 (100.0%) |
| Favourite — last pre-jump snapshot | 1/9 (11.1%) | 5/9 (55.6%) | 6/9 (66.7%) | 9/9 (100.0%) |
| Favourite — official SP | 1/9 (11.1%) | 5/9 (55.6%) | 5/9 (55.6%) | 8/9 (88.9%) |
Pre-race vs SP
Pre-race: stored snapshots (morning open + last snapshot before each post time); SP from official results
Odds-source sensitivity (hybrid presets)
| Odds source | Win — top pick | Win — in top 3 picks | Top pick placed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hybrid V2 · Last pre-race snap | 0/9 (0.0%) | 7/9 (77.8%) | 6/9 (66.7%) |
| Hybrid V2 · Morning / open | 1/9 (11.1%) | 6/9 (66.7%) | 5/9 (55.6%) |
| Hybrid V2 · SP (results) | 1/9 (11.1%) | 5/9 (55.6%) | 6/9 (66.7%) |
| Hybrid V1 · Last pre-race snap | 0/9 (0.0%) | 6/9 (66.7%) | 6/9 (66.7%) |
| Hybrid V1 · Morning / open | 1/9 (11.1%) | 6/9 (66.7%) | 5/9 (55.6%) |
| Hybrid V1 · SP (results) | 1/9 (11.1%) | 5/9 (55.6%) | 5/9 (55.6%) |
Per race: winner vs each preset's top pick
WIN = top pick won; PL = top pick placed (1st–3rd); ✗ = unplaced. Odds shown are those the preset used (morning brief had none).
| R | Winner (SP) | 1-2-3 | Morning brief | Hybrid V1 | Hybrid V2 | Hybrid V3 (shadow) | Fav (last snap) | Fav (SP) | Last snap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R1 18:40 | #4 RED BRICK WARRIOR (4.5) | 4-11-10 | #11ORIENTAL SURPRISEPL | #11ORIENTAL SURPRISEPL @ 3.3 | #11ORIENTAL SURPRISEPL @ 3.3 | #11ORIENTAL SURPRISEPL @ 3.3 | #11ORIENTAL SURPRISEPL @ 3.3 | #11ORIENTAL SURPRISEPL @ 3.8 | 18:25 (14m pre) |
| R2 19:10 | #10 BITS SUPERSTAR (6.2) | 10-11-8 | #4MATZDEN✗ | #4MATZDEN✗ @ 3.6 | #4MATZDEN✗ @ 3.6 | #4MATZDEN✗ @ 3.6 | #4MATZDEN✗ @ 3.6 | #9GOOD LUCK BABE✗ @ 3.1 | 18:55 (14m pre) |
| R3 19:40 | #8 AKERMANIS GOLD (4.4) | 8-2-12 | #5AMAZING GAZE✗ | #5AMAZING GAZE✗ @ 3.2 | #5AMAZING GAZE✗ @ 3.2 | #5AMAZING GAZE✗ @ 3.2 | #5AMAZING GAZE✗ @ 3.2 | #5AMAZING GAZE✗ @ 2.7 | 19:37 (2m pre) |
| R4 20:10 | #4 BROWNNEEDSFURTHER (10) | 4-6-1 | #11PODIUM✗ | #6CLOUD NINEPL @ 1.8 | #6CLOUD NINEPL @ 1.8 | #6CLOUD NINEPL @ 1.8 | #6CLOUD NINEPL @ 1.8 | #6CLOUD NINEPL @ 1.7 | 19:49 (20m pre) |
| R5 20:40 | #6 HAPPY SMILE (8.7) | 6-12-1 | #5INNO SUPER✗ | #5INNO SUPER✗ @ 4.8 | #5INNO SUPER✗ @ 4.8 | #5INNO SUPER✗ @ 4.8 | #5INNO SUPER✗ @ 4.8 | #9VIVA FIRECRACKER✗ @ 5 | 19:49 (50m pre) |
| R6 21:10 | #1 JUMBO BLESSING (3.5) | 1-5-4 | #4SUPERB KINGPL | #4SUPERB KINGPL @ 2.9 | #4SUPERB KINGPL @ 2.9 | #4SUPERB KINGPL @ 2.9 | #4SUPERB KINGPL @ 2.9 | #4SUPERB KINGPL @ 2.6 | 20:45 (24m pre) |
| R7 21:45 | #11 PRESTIGE ALWAYS (8.1) | 11-12-8 | #8WUKONG JEWELLERYPL | #8WUKONG JEWELLERYPL @ 4.4 | #8WUKONG JEWELLERYPL @ 4.4 | #8WUKONG JEWELLERYPL @ 4.4 | #8WUKONG JEWELLERYPL @ 4.4 | #12DARYL FLASHPL @ 3.5 | 21:13 (32m pre) |
| R8 22:15 | #8 DANICA'S CHOICE (2) | 8-11-6 | #11LEADING AGILITYPL | #11LEADING AGILITYPL @ 4.4 | #11LEADING AGILITYPL @ 4.4 | #11LEADING AGILITYPL @ 4.4 | #8DANICA'S CHOICEWIN @ 2.8 | #8DANICA'S CHOICEWIN @ 2 | 21:59 (15m pre) |
| R9 22:50 | #6 FORTUNATE SON (11) | 6-5-2 | #12FLYING FORTUNE✗ | #2SERAPH GABRIELPL @ 2.9 | #2SERAPH GABRIELPL @ 2.9 | #2SERAPH GABRIELPL @ 2.9 | #2SERAPH GABRIELPL @ 2.9 | #10WINDLORD✗ @ 3.1 | 22:45 (5m pre) |
Per preset: place & exotic hits
Top1 = model's #1 combination; in3 = actual combination within the model's first three. Top-3 placed = how many of the three picks per race finished 1st–3rd (out of races × 3).
| Preset | Win top1 | Winner in top3 | Top1 placed | Top-3 placed | QIN 1/3 | FCT 1/3 | TCE 1/3 | F4 1/3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morning brief (form only, no odds) | 0/9 (0.0%) | 2/9 (22.2%) | 4/9 (44.4%) | 7/27 (25.9%) | 1/9 / 1/9 | 0/9 / 1/9 | 0/9 / 0/9 | 0/9 / 0/9 |
| Hybrid V2 @ last pre-jump snapshot | 0/9 (0.0%) | 7/9 (77.8%) | 6/9 (66.7%) | 14/27 (51.9%) | 1/9 / 3/9 | 0/9 / 1/9 | 0/9 / 0/9 | 0/9 / 1/9 |
| Hybrid V1 @ last pre-jump snapshot | 0/9 (0.0%) | 6/9 (66.7%) | 6/9 (66.7%) | 13/27 (48.1%) | 1/9 / 3/9 | 0/9 / 1/9 | 0/9 / 0/9 | 0/9 / 1/9 |
| Hybrid V3 (shadow, real J/T point-in-time) @ last pre-jump snapshot | 0/9 (0.0%) | 6/9 (66.7%) | 6/9 (66.7%) | 13/27 (48.1%) | 1/9 / 3/9 | 0/9 / 1/9 | 0/9 / 0/9 | 0/9 / 1/9 |
| Favourite — last pre-jump snapshot | 1/9 (11.1%) | 5/9 (55.6%) | 6/9 (66.7%) | 14/27 (51.9%) | 0/9 / 3/9 | 0/9 / 1/9 | 0/9 / 0/9 | 2/9 / 2/9 |
| Favourite — official SP | 1/9 (11.1%) | 5/9 (55.6%) | 5/9 (55.6%) | 15/27 (55.6%) | 2/9 / 5/9 | 1/9 / 2/9 | 0/9 / 0/9 | 3/9 / 3/9 |
| Market-lean @ last pre-jump snapshot | 1/9 (11.1%) | 5/9 (55.6%) | 6/9 (66.7%) | 14/27 (51.9%) | 0/9 / 3/9 | 0/9 / 1/9 | 0/9 / 0/9 | 2/9 / 2/9 |
| v2 form + pace @ last pre-jump snapshot | 1/9 (11.1%) | 8/9 (88.9%) | 4/9 (44.4%) | 14/27 (51.9%) | 1/9 / 3/9 | 0/9 / 1/9 | 0/9 / 0/9 | 0/9 / 1/9 |
Hypothetical return — flat HK$10 on each top pick
Purely hypothetical, using official HKJC dividends per HK$10. Not betting advice and not indicative of future results. One meeting is a tiny, high-variance sample.
| Preset | Staked | Win return | Win ROI | Place return | Place ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morning brief (form only, no odds) | $90 | $0 | -100% | $74 | -17.8% |
| Hybrid V2 @ last pre-jump snapshot | $90 | $0 | -100% | $103.5 | 15% |
| Hybrid V1 @ last pre-jump snapshot | $90 | $0 | -100% | $103.5 | 15% |
| Hybrid V3 (shadow, real J/T point-in-time) @ last pre-jump snapshot | $90 | $0 | -100% | $103.5 | 15% |
| Favourite — last pre-jump snapshot | $90 | $20.5 | -77.2% | $91.5 | 1.7% |
| Favourite — official SP | $90 | $20.5 | -77.2% | $69 | -23.3% |
| Market-lean @ last pre-jump snapshot | $90 | $20.5 | -77.2% | $91.5 | 1.7% |
| v2 form + pace @ last pre-jump snapshot | $90 | $35.5 | -60.6% | $73 | -18.9% |
走勢盤 study (stored snapshots only)
open = morning snapshot (~09:19 HKT); lastPre = latest stored snapshot before post time; anyTime = lowest odds in any stored pre-post snapshot; SP = official results Win Odds (SP-basis is hindsight — not knowable before the jump)
| Group | Runners | Win rate | Place rate | Hyp. win return ($10 each) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All runners with a morning price | 106 | 9/106 (8.5%) | 27/106 (25.5%) | $591 / $1060 |
| Shortened ≥25% (open → last pre-jump snapshot) | 10 | 1/10 (10.0%) | 4/10 (40.0%) | $103 / $100 |
| Shortened ≥25% at any stored pre-race snapshot | 14 | 2/14 (14.3%) | 6/14 (42.9%) | $215 / $140 |
| Steady (neither) | 78 | 8/78 (10.3%) | 22/78 (28.2%) | $488 / $780 |
| Drifted ≥50% (open → last pre-jump snapshot) | 18 | 0/18 (0.0%) | 1/18 (5.6%) | $0 / $180 |
| Shortened ≥25% open → SP (hindsight) | 15 | 2/15 (13.3%) | 7/15 (46.7%) | $126.5 / $150 |
| Drifted ≥50% open → SP (hindsight) | 37 | 0/37 (0.0%) | 2/37 (5.4%) | $0 / $370 |
Open → last pre-jump snapshot: shortened ≥25%
| R / No. | Horse | Open | Low (pre) | Last pre | SP | Move | Finish |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R8 #11 | LEADING AGILITY 驕陽雄心 | 11 | 4.4 21:59 | 4.4 | 6.5 | -60% | 2 |
| R9 #2 | SERAPH GABRIEL 紫荊傳令 | 6.3 | 2.9 22:45 | 2.9 | 4.4 | -54% | 3 |
| R4 #11 | PODIUM 焦點 | 22 | 12 19:49 | 12 | 12 | -45% | 7 |
| R7 #9 | KING MILES 安康萬里 | 18 | 12 17:34 | 12 | 25 | -33% | 10 |
| R3 #5 | AMAZING GAZE 凝妙星 | 4.6 | 3.2 19:37 | 3.2 | 2.7 | -30% | 6 |
| R8 #4 | STAR RISE 久久為昇 | 6.3 | 4.4 21:59 | 4.4 | 6.8 | -30% | 11 |
| R4 #1 | FRIENDS OF SHAJING 沙井之友 | 7.8 | 5.6 19:49 | 5.6 | 5.5 | -28% | 3 |
| R2 #4 | MATZDEN 馬馳登 | 4.9 | 3.6 18:55 | 3.6 | 4.5 | -26% | 10 |
| R7 #3 | AKASHVANI 天星 | 9.2 | 6.8 21:13 | 6.8 | 9.3 | -26% | 7 |
| R4 #4 | BROWNNEEDSFURTHER 星辰千帥 | 11 | 8.2 19:49 | 8.2 | 10 | -25% | 1 |
Shortened ≥25% at any stored pre-race snapshot (by low)
| R / No. | Horse | Open | Low (pre) | Last pre | SP | Max move | Finish |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R8 #11 | LEADING AGILITY 驕陽雄心 | 11 | 4.4 21:59 | 4.4 | 6.5 | -60% | 2 |
| R9 #2 | SERAPH GABRIEL 紫荊傳令 | 6.3 | 2.9 22:45 | 2.9 | 4.4 | -54% | 3 |
| R4 #11 | PODIUM 焦點 | 22 | 12 19:49 | 12 | 12 | -45% | 7 |
| R3 #2 | SHOOTING TO TOP 贏玥 | 6 | 4 19:18 | 4.6 | 6.6 | -33% | 2 |
| R7 #9 | KING MILES 安康萬里 | 18 | 12 17:34 | 12 | 25 | -33% | 10 |
| R3 #5 | AMAZING GAZE 凝妙星 | 4.6 | 3.2 19:37 | 3.2 | 2.7 | -30% | 6 |
| R8 #4 | STAR RISE 久久為昇 | 6.3 | 4.4 21:59 | 4.4 | 6.8 | -30% | 11 |
| R9 #6 | FORTUNATE SON 將義 | 14 | 10 13:19 | 11 | 11 | -29% | 1 |
| R4 #1 | FRIENDS OF SHAJING 沙井之友 | 7.8 | 5.6 19:49 | 5.6 | 5.5 | -28% | 3 |
| R9 #10 | WINDLORD 風將 | 6.4 | 4.6 18:01 | 5.8 | 3.1 | -28% | 5 |
| R4 #9 | INVICTUS 將傲 | 10 | 7.3 18:42 | 7.9 | 6.1 | -27% | 4 |
| R2 #4 | MATZDEN 馬馳登 | 4.9 | 3.6 18:55 | 3.6 | 4.5 | -26% | 10 |
| R7 #3 | AKASHVANI 天星 | 9.2 | 6.8 21:13 | 6.8 | 9.3 | -26% | 7 |
| R4 #4 | BROWNNEEDSFURTHER 星辰千帥 | 11 | 8.2 19:49 | 8.2 | 10 | -25% | 1 |
Open → SP: shortened ≥25% (hindsight)
| R / No. | Horse | Open | Low (pre) | Last pre | SP | Move | Finish |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R6 #5 | GEORGIAN SIGMA 佐治傳奇 | 9 | 8.2 20:45 | 8.2 | 4 | -56% | 2 |
| R1 #4 | RED BRICK WARRIOR 紅磚戰士 | 10 | 9 18:25 | 9 | 4.5 | -55% | 1 |
| R9 #10 | WINDLORD 風將 | 6.4 | 4.6 18:01 | 5.8 | 3.1 | -52% | 5 |
| R8 #10 | MEOWTH 喵喵怪 | 18 | 16 11:46 | 24 | 9 | -50% | 7 |
| R7 #11 | PRESTIGE ALWAYS 盈妍威楓 | 16 | 13 14:37 | 14 | 8.1 | -49% | 1 |
| R5 #8 | LUCK IS BACK 金駒永騰 | 9.6 | 7.6 10:14 | 10 | 5.1 | -47% | 5 |
| R4 #11 | PODIUM 焦點 | 22 | 12 19:49 | 12 | 12 | -45% | 7 |
| R2 #8 | COUNTRY PRIDE 鄉村威龍 | 21 | 17 15:05 | 18 | 12 | -43% | 3 |
| R3 #5 | AMAZING GAZE 凝妙星 | 4.6 | 3.2 19:37 | 3.2 | 2.7 | -41% | 6 |
| R8 #11 | LEADING AGILITY 驕陽雄心 | 11 | 4.4 21:59 | 4.4 | 6.5 | -41% | 2 |
| R4 #9 | INVICTUS 將傲 | 10 | 7.3 18:42 | 7.9 | 6.1 | -39% | 4 |
| R5 #9 | VIVA FIRECRACKER 爆竹 | 7.9 | 6.5 19:49 | 6.5 | 5 | -37% | 12 |
| R3 #7 | DECISION LINK 有情有義 | 10 | 9.4 11:57 | 11 | 6.8 | -32% | 5 |
| R9 #2 | SERAPH GABRIEL 紫荊傳令 | 6.3 | 2.9 22:45 | 2.9 | 4.4 | -30% | 3 |
| R4 #1 | FRIENDS OF SHAJING 沙井之友 | 7.8 | 5.6 19:49 | 5.6 | 5.5 | -30% | 3 |
Late moves after the last stored snapshot (SP ÷ last pre ≤0.75 or ≥1.5)
| R / No. | Horse | Open | Low (pre) | Last pre | SP | SP vs pre | Finish |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R8 #10 | MEOWTH 喵喵怪 | 18 | 16 11:46 | 24 | 9 | -62% | 7 |
| R6 #5 | GEORGIAN SIGMA 佐治傳奇 | 9 | 8.2 20:45 | 8.2 | 4 | -51% | 2 |
| R1 #4 | RED BRICK WARRIOR 紅磚戰士 | 10 | 9 18:25 | 9 | 4.5 | -50% | 1 |
| R5 #8 | LUCK IS BACK 金駒永騰 | 9.6 | 7.6 10:14 | 10 | 5.1 | -49% | 5 |
| R9 #10 | WINDLORD 風將 | 6.4 | 4.6 18:01 | 5.8 | 3.1 | -47% | 5 |
| R9 #4 | LO RIDER 平凡騎士 | 13 | 13 09:19 | 18 | 10 | -44% | 8 |
| R7 #11 | PRESTIGE ALWAYS 盈妍威楓 | 16 | 13 14:37 | 14 | 8.1 | -42% | 1 |
| R7 #12 | DARYL FLASH 丞匡掠影 | 4.5 | 4.5 09:19 | 5.8 | 3.5 | -40% | 2 |
| R3 #7 | DECISION LINK 有情有義 | 10 | 9.4 11:57 | 11 | 6.8 | -38% | 5 |
| R2 #8 | COUNTRY PRIDE 鄉村威龍 | 21 | 17 15:05 | 18 | 12 | -33% | 3 |
| R2 #9 | GOOD LUCK BABE 開心五月 | 3.5 | 3.5 09:19 | 4.6 | 3.1 | -33% | 4 |
| R7 #10 | ANODE 正極 | 19 | 19 09:19 | 24 | 17 | -29% | 12 |
| R8 #8 | DANICA'S CHOICE 繼往開來 | 2.3 | 2.3 09:19 | 2.8 | 2 | -29% | 1 |
| R5 #1 | GLORIOUS JOURNEY 本領非凡 | 11 | 10 12:28 | 10 | 15 | 50% | 3 |
| R9 #2 | SERAPH GABRIEL 紫荊傳令 | 6.3 | 2.9 22:45 | 2.9 | 4.4 | 52% | 3 |
| R4 #2 | TACTICAL ACE 智勝一籌 | 24 | 20 18:42 | 27 | 41 | 52% | 9 |
| R8 #4 | STAR RISE 久久為昇 | 6.3 | 4.4 21:59 | 4.4 | 6.8 | 54% | 11 |
| R1 #12 | PERFECT PAIRING 幸運同行 | 21 | 21 09:19 | 33 | 52 | 58% | 7 |
| R5 #6 | HAPPY SMILE 越駿聯歡 | 6.4 | 5.5 19:18 | 5.5 | 8.7 | 58% | 1 |
| R3 #3 | RAINBOW SEVEN 彩虹七色 | 19 | 18 10:14 | 27 | 43 | 59% | 10 |
| R2 #2 | VIGOR HAPPINESS 銳喜 | 20 | 20 09:19 | 35 | 56 | 60% | 9 |
| R4 #10 | LUCKY XANDER 平天雄 | 32 | 32 09:19 | 49 | 79 | 61% | 10 |
| R6 #6 | DOUBLE ALPHA 升升雙息 | 18 | 18 09:19 | 27 | 44 | 63% | 5 |
| R8 #3 | SKY CAP 富心星 | 15 | 13 15:31 | 14 | 23 | 64% | 10 |
| R4 #5 | JOKER ORBIT 莊家班 | 28 | 25 18:42 | 31 | 51 | 65% | 5 |
| R5 #2 | CLASS 大文豪 | 16 | 14 14:37 | 15 | 25 | 67% | 8 |
| R9 #1 | KA YING GENERATION 嘉應傳承 | 6.1 | 6.1 09:19 | 8.4 | 14 | 67% | 10 |
| R2 #6 | GOLDEN ELITE 金珀尖子 | 43 | 43 09:19 | 64 | 110 | 72% | 11 |
| R6 #9 | HARMONY FIRE 天火同人 | 10 | 9.6 11:46 | 11 | 19 | 73% | 7 |
| R5 #11 | HEALTHY PONY 健康小馬 | 39 | 39 09:19 | 58 | 101 | 74% | 9 |
| R1 #2 | SMILING ONE 一風雲 | 34 | 34 09:19 | 44 | 77 | 75% | 12 |
| R1 #7 | CIRCUIT DUFFY 綫路達飛 | 33 | 33 09:19 | 64 | 114 | 78% | 8 |
| R6 #3 | BLUE ILLUSION 藍地球 | 17 | 17 09:19 | 23 | 42 | 83% | 6 |
| R6 #2 | COPPER CORE 友駿同心 | 28 | 28 09:19 | 49 | 96 | 96% | 8 |
| R6 #7 | SECRET INGREDIENT 雙劍合璧 | 35 | 33 14:18 | 39 | 78 | 100% | 12 |
| R7 #9 | KING MILES 安康萬里 | 18 | 12 17:34 | 12 | 25 | 108% | 10 |
| R7 #5 | PASS LINE 傲聖 | 37 | 29 17:21 | 35 | 82 | 134% | 9 |
| R6 #10 | CASA BUDDY 領航多財 | 32 | 31 14:18 | 49 | 122 | 149% | 11 |
Open → last pre-jump snapshot: drifted ≥50%
| R / No. | Horse | Open | Low (pre) | Last pre | SP | Move | Finish |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R3 #10 | CALIFORNIA MOXIE 加州活力 | 11 | 11 09:19 | 25 | 35 | 127% | 9 |
| R8 #12 | OUTGATE 亞機拉 | 23 | 23 09:19 | 47 | 47 | 104% | 8 |
| R3 #11 | BRIGHT INHERITANCE 光明傳承 | 25 | 25 09:19 | 50 | 65 | 100% | 12 |
| R1 #7 | CIRCUIT DUFFY 綫路達飛 | 33 | 33 09:19 | 64 | 114 | 94% | 8 |
| R6 #11 | HAPPY UNITED 萬眾開心 | 11 | 11 09:19 | 21 | 27 | 91% | 9 |
| R8 #5 | PEGAS 飛馬座 | 23 | 21 13:19 | 43 | 34 | 87% | 4 |
| R8 #1 | HARMONY N BLESSED 人和家興 | 10 | 9.8 11:06 | 18 | 19 | 80% | 12 |
| R9 #8 | THE AUSPICIOUS 豐辰 | 6.8 | 6.8 09:19 | 12 | 11 | 76% | 6 |
| R5 #12 | GAZELEY 同心 | 9.7 | 9.6 09:37 | 17 | 13 | 75% | 2 |
| R2 #2 | VIGOR HAPPINESS 銳喜 | 20 | 20 09:19 | 35 | 56 | 75% | 9 |
| R6 #2 | COPPER CORE 友駿同心 | 28 | 28 09:19 | 49 | 96 | 75% | 8 |
| R9 #11 | KEEFY 瑪瑙 | 19 | 18 11:06 | 31 | 34 | 63% | 9 |
| R9 #7 | ROMANTIC GLADIATOR 浪漫鬥士 | 15 | 14 18:25 | 24 | 22 | 60% | 11 |
| R1 #12 | PERFECT PAIRING 幸運同行 | 21 | 21 09:19 | 33 | 52 | 57% | 7 |
| R4 #10 | LUCKY XANDER 平天雄 | 32 | 32 09:19 | 49 | 79 | 53% | 10 |
| R6 #10 | CASA BUDDY 領航多財 | 32 | 31 14:18 | 49 | 122 | 53% | 11 |
| R8 #7 | STORMING DRAGON 勇霸龍 | 21 | 20 18:10 | 32 | 32 | 52% | 6 |
| R6 #6 | DOUBLE ALPHA 升升雙息 | 18 | 18 09:19 | 27 | 44 | 50% | 5 |
Data gaps
- R4: last stored pre-jump snapshot was 20 min before post (19:49 HKT) — late market moves not captured
- R5: last stored pre-jump snapshot was 50 min before post (19:49 HKT) — late market moves not captured
- R6: last stored pre-jump snapshot was 24 min before post (20:45 HKT) — late market moves not captured
- R7: last stored pre-jump snapshot was 32 min before post (21:13 HKT) — late market moves not captured
Summary metrics
Detailed exotic metrics below are for the hybridV2 (live primary) preset when available, else hybrid V1.
Win — top pick
0/9 (0.0%)
Win — in top 3 picks
7/9 (77.8%)
Top pick placed
6/9 (66.7%)
Any top-3 pick placed
9/9 (100.0%)
Favourite won (SP)
1/9 (11.1%)
Quinella top 1
1/9 (11.1%)
Quinella in top 3
3/9 (33.3%)
Forecast top 1
0/9 (0.0%)
Forecast in top 3
1/9 (11.1%)
Tierce top 1
0/9 (0.0%)
Tierce in top 3
0/9 (0.0%)
First 4 top 1
0/9 (0.0%)
First 4 in top 3
1/9 (11.1%)
By meeting
2026-09-23 · Happy Valley
9 races
- Win — top pick: 0/9 (0.0%)
- Win — in top 3 picks: 7/9 (77.8%)
- Top pick placed: 6/9 (66.7%)
- Favourite won (SP): 1/9 (11.1%)
Per-race results
| Date | Venue | R | Race | Actual | Model top 3 | Hybrid vs actual | Hits | QIN / FCT / TCE / F4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-23 | Happy Valley | 1 | NAM FUNG HANDICAP | 4-11-10 | 11 ORIENTAL SURPRISE 11.4%8 TELECOM POWER 10.2%3 SOARING BRONCO 10.1% | 11-8-3 vs 4-11-10 W1W3Pl | W1W3PlQINFCTTCEF4 | QIN 8-11 vs 4-11 FCT 11-8 vs 4-11 TCE 11-8-3 vs 4-11-10 F4 3-4-8-11 vs 4-6-10-11 |
| 2026-09-23 | Happy Valley | 2 | DEEP WATER BAY HANDICAP | 10-11-8 | 4 MATZDEN 10.7%10 BITS SUPERSTAR 9.6%9 GOOD LUCK BABE 9.5% | 4-9-10 vs 10-11-8 W1W3Pl | W1W3PlQINFCTTCEF4 | QIN 4-10 vs 10-11 FCT 4-10 vs 10-11 TCE 4-10-9 vs 10-11-8 F4 4-7-9-10 vs 8-9-10-11 |
| 2026-09-23 | Happy Valley | 3 | WONG CHUK HANG HANDICAP | 8-2-12 | 5 AMAZING GAZE 10.6%2 SHOOTING TO TOP 9.7%8 AKERMANIS GOLD 9.4% | 5-2-8 vs 8-2-12 W1W3Pl | W1W3PlQINFCTTCEF4 | QIN 2-5 vs 2-8 FCT 5-2 vs 8-2 TCE 5-2-8 vs 8-2-12 F4 2-5-8-9 vs 1-2-8-12 |
| 2026-09-23 | Happy Valley | 4 | DEEP WATER BAY HANDICAP | 4-6-1 | 6 CLOUD NINE 13.7%11 PODIUM 12.1%4 BROWNNEEDSFURTHER 11.1% | 6-11-4 vs 4-6-1 W1W3Pl | W1W3PlQINFCTTCEF4 | QIN 6-11 vs 4-6 FCT 6-11 vs 4-6 TCE 6-11-4 vs 4-6-1 F4 4-6-9-11 vs 1-4-6-9 |
| 2026-09-23 | Happy Valley | 5 | THE HONG KONG COUNTRY CLUB CHALLENGE CUP (HANDICAP) | 6-12-1 | 5 INNO SUPER 10.1%6 HAPPY SMILE 9.7%7 DASHING MAURISON 9.3% | 5-6-9 vs 6-12-1 W1W3Pl | W1W3PlQINFCTTCEF4 | QIN 5-6 vs 6-12 FCT 5-6 vs 6-12 TCE 5-6-7 vs 6-12-1 F4 5-6-7-9 vs 1-6-10-12 |
| 2026-09-23 | Happy Valley | 6 | ISLAND HANDICAP | 1-5-4 | 4 SUPERB KING 11.1%1 JUMBO BLESSING 11.1%12 MAPOGO 9.9% | 4-1-12 vs 1-5-4 W1W3Pl | W1W3PlQINFCTTCEF4 | QIN 1-4 vs 1-5 FCT 4-1 vs 1-5 TCE 4-1-12 vs 1-5-4 F4 1-4-9-12 vs 1-4-5-12 |
| 2026-09-23 | Happy Valley | 7 | MOUNT BUTLER HANDICAP | 11-12-8 | 8 WUKONG JEWELLERY 10.3%1 FLYING WROTE 9.6%2 SYMBOL OF STRENGTH 8.7% | 8-1-2 vs 11-12-8 W1W3Pl | W1W3PlQINFCTTCEF4 | QIN 1-8 vs 11-12 FCT 8-1 vs 11-12 TCE 8-1-2 vs 11-12-8 F4 1-2-8-9 vs 1-8-11-12 |
| 2026-09-23 | Happy Valley | 8 | MOUNT BUTLER HANDICAP | 8-11-6 | 11 LEADING AGILITY 11.4%8 DANICA'S CHOICE 10.1%4 STAR RISE 9.6% | 11-8-4 vs 8-11-6 W1W3Pl | W1W3PlQINFCTTCEF4 | QIN 8-11 vs 8-11 FCT 11-8 vs 8-11 TCE 11-8-4 vs 8-11-6 F4 3-4-8-11 vs 5-6-8-11 |
| 2026-09-23 | Happy Valley | 9 | TAI HANG HANDICAP | 6-5-2 | 2 SERAPH GABRIEL 10.1%1 KA YING GENERATION 8.9%6 FORTUNATE SON 8.7% | 2-1-9 vs 6-5-2 W1W3Pl | W1W3PlQINFCTTCEF4 | QIN 1-2 vs 5-6 FCT 2-1 vs 6-5 TCE 2-1-6 vs 6-5-2 F4 1-2-3-6 vs 2-5-6-9 |
- Analysis only — not betting advice. Hypothetical ROI uses official HKJC dividends per HK$10.
- Official results: racing.hkjc.com LocalResults (EN + 繁中); fetched 2026-09-25T02:25:33.973Z.
- Last pre-jump snapshot per race: R1 18:25 (14m pre-post); R2 18:55 (14m pre-post); R3 19:37 (2m pre-post); R4 19:49 (20m pre-post); R5 19:49 (50m pre-post); R6 20:45 (24m pre-post); R7 21:13 (32m pre-post); R8 21:59 (15m pre-post); R9 22:45 (5m pre-post).
- Snapshots captured at/after post time are excluded from 'pre-jump' (they reflect closed pools ≈ SP).
- Morning brief ranking: data/predictions/2026-09-23-hv-morning.json (scratched runners removed, probabilities renormalised).
- Exotic hits: top1 = model's #1 combination; top3 = actual combination within model's first three combinations (same derivation as race pages).
- R4: last stored pre-jump snapshot was 20 min before post (19:49 HKT) — late market moves not captured
- R5: last stored pre-jump snapshot was 50 min before post (19:49 HKT) — late market moves not captured
- R6: last stored pre-jump snapshot was 24 min before post (20:45 HKT) — late market moves not captured
- R7: last stored pre-jump snapshot was 32 min before post (21:13 HKT) — late market moves not captured
13 Sep Sha Tin + 16 Sep Happy Valley (18 races)
18 races · Sep 13 SP-only; Sep 16 hybrid uses last pre-race WIN snapshots (plus morning open / SP comparison).
Odds mode: snapshot-for-HV + SP-for-ST
Preset comparison (SP + enriched form)
Side-by-side hit rates: hybridV2 (live primary) vs hybrid V1 vs v2 vs market-lean vs favourite. Same 18 races.
| Preset | Win — top pick | Win — in top 3 picks | Top pick placed | Any top-3 pick placed |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hybrid V2 (live primary)Live | 10/18 (55.6%) | 12/18 (66.7%) | 14/18 (77.8%) | 17/18 (94.4%) |
| Hybrid V1 (previous) | 9/18 (50.0%) | 12/18 (66.7%) | 12/18 (66.7%) | 17/18 (94.4%) |
| v2 form + pace | 6/18 (33.3%) | 9/18 (50.0%) | 8/18 (44.4%) | 16/18 (88.9%) |
| Market-lean | 7/18 (38.9%) | 13/18 (72.2%) | 12/18 (66.7%) | 16/18 (88.9%) |
| Favourite (1/odds) | 8/18 (44.4%) | 13/18 (72.2%) | 12/18 (66.7%) | 16/18 (88.9%) |
| Old SP-lean | 8/18 (44.4%) | 10/18 (55.6%) | 10/18 (55.6%) | 14/18 (77.8%) |
Pre-race vs SP
Pre-race: Sep 16 HV has morning + last pre-race snapshots; Sep 13 ST has no snapshots — SP only
No files under data/odds-snapshots/ for 2026-09-13; meeting JSON has no oddsOpen/oddsLatest
See accuracySnapshotVsSp for Sep 16 hybrid with snapshot odds vs SP
Sep 16 Happy Valley - snapshot odds vs SP (hybrid)
| Odds source | Win — top pick | Win — in top 3 picks | Top pick placed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last pre-race snap | 5/8 (62.5%) | 6/8 (75.0%) | 8/8 (100.0%) |
| Morning / open | 3/8 (37.5%) | 5/8 (62.5%) | 4/8 (50.0%) |
| SP (results) | 5/8 (62.5%) | 6/8 (75.0%) | 7/8 (87.5%) |
Summary metrics
Detailed exotic metrics below are for the hybridV2 (live primary) preset when available, else hybrid V1.
Win — top pick
10/18 (55.6%)
Win — in top 3 picks
12/18 (66.7%)
Top pick placed
14/18 (77.8%)
Any top-3 pick placed
17/18 (94.4%)
Favourite won (SP)
9/18 (50.0%)
Quinella top 1
3/18 (16.7%)
Quinella in top 3
5/18 (27.8%)
Forecast top 1
2/18 (11.1%)
Forecast in top 3
4/18 (22.2%)
Tierce top 1
0/18 (0.0%)
Tierce in top 3
0/18 (0.0%)
First 4 top 1
0/18 (0.0%)
First 4 in top 3
2/18 (11.1%)
By meeting
2026-09-13 · Sha Tin
10 races
- Win — top pick: 5/10 (50.0%)
- Win — in top 3 picks: 6/10 (60.0%)
- Top pick placed: 6/10 (60.0%)
- Favourite won (SP): 5/10 (50.0%)
2026-09-16 · Happy Valley
8 races
- Win — top pick: 5/8 (62.5%)
- Win — in top 3 picks: 6/8 (75.0%)
- Top pick placed: 8/8 (100.0%)
- Favourite won (SP): 4/8 (50.0%)
Per-race results
| Date | Venue | R | Race | Actual | Model top 3 | Hybrid vs actual | Hits | QIN / FCT / TCE / F4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-13 | Sha Tin | 1 | HONG TUNG HANDICAP | 10-9-11 | 10 RATTAN GALAXY 8.2%14 EXCEED THE WISH 8.1%11 SUPERB GUY 7.9% | 10-14-11 vs 10-9-11 W1W3Pl | W1W3PlQINFCTTCEF4 | QIN 10-14 vs 9-10 FCT 10-14 vs 10-9 TCE 10-14-11 vs 10-9-11 F4 9-10-11-14 vs 7-9-10-11 |
| 2026-09-13 | Sha Tin | 2 | HING WAH HANDICAP | 8-12-11 | 8 RUBY THRIVE 10.2%2 LOOKING BRIGHT 8.9%5 HANDSOME HERO 8.6% | 8-2-5 vs 8-12-11 W1W3Pl | W1W3PlQINFCTTCEF4 | QIN 2-8 vs 8-12 FCT 8-2 vs 8-12 TCE 8-2-5 vs 8-12-11 F4 2-5-8-11 vs 3-8-11-12 |
| 2026-09-13 | Sha Tin | 3 | HONG TUNG HANDICAP | 13-10-8 | 13 DRACO 8.3%12 CHILL MASTER 8.0%14 SPEEDY TRIDENT 8.0% | 13-14-12 vs 13-10-8 W1W3Pl | W1W3PlQINFCTTCEF4 | QIN 12-13 vs 10-13 FCT 13-12 vs 13-10 TCE 13-12-14 vs 13-10-8 F4 3-12-13-14 vs 8-9-10-13 |
| 2026-09-13 | Sha Tin | 4 | LOK WAH HANDICAP | 2-3-4 | 12 ENJOY GOLF 9.6%2 HAPPY SHOOTER 7.7%3 BRIGHT MORTAR 7.7% | 12-2-3 vs 2-3-4 W1W3Pl | W1W3PlQINFCTTCEF4 | QIN 2-12 vs 2-3 FCT 12-2 vs 2-3 TCE 12-2-3 vs 2-3-4 F4 2-3-11-12 vs 2-3-4-13 |
| 2026-09-13 | Sha Tin | 5 | LOK WAH HANDICAP | 2-12-10 | 9 ROAD TO GLORY 9.2%10 SPIRITED STEED 8.7%11 BETTER AND BETTER 8.2% | 9-10-11 vs 2-12-10 W1W3Pl | W1W3PlQINFCTTCEF4 | QIN 9-10 vs 2-12 FCT 9-10 vs 2-12 TCE 9-10-11 vs 2-12-10 F4 2-9-10-11 vs 2-10-12-13 |
| 2026-09-13 | Sha Tin | 6 | GOOD TO FIRM | 13-5-4 | 1 VICTOR SUPREME 9.5%5 LUCKY YEAR 8.3%9 GORGEOUS VICTORY 8.2% | 1-5-9 vs 13-5-4 W1W3Pl | W1W3PlQINFCTTCEF4 | QIN 1-5 vs 5-13 FCT 1-5 vs 13-5 TCE 1-5-9 vs 13-5-4 F4 1-5-9-12 vs 4-5-9-13 |
| 2026-09-13 | Sha Tin | 7 | MEI TUNG HANDICAP | 12-1-6 | 5 STORM MIRROR 8.7%13 TOP TO SKY 8.6%3 ACE 7.9% | 5-13-3 vs 12-1-6 W1W3Pl | W1W3PlQINFCTTCEF4 | QIN 5-13 vs 1-12 FCT 5-13 vs 12-1 TCE 5-13-3 vs 12-1-6 F4 1-3-5-13 vs 1-6-10-12 |
| 2026-09-13 | Sha Tin | 8 | WAH FU HANDICAP | 10-1-11 | 1 SOLID STATE 10.0%13 LUCKY CANDY 8.5%12 INVINCIBLE STEED 8.0% | 1-13-12 vs 10-1-11 W1W3Pl | W1W3PlQINFCTTCEF4 | QIN 1-13 vs 1-10 FCT 1-13 vs 10-1 TCE 1-13-12 vs 10-1-11 F4 1-2-12-13 vs 1-6-10-11 |
| 2026-09-13 | Sha Tin | 9 | OI TUNG HANDICAP | 5-1-2 | 5 LUCY IN THE SKY 8.9%8 THUNDER KIT 8.3%1 CHILL BUDDY 8.1% | 5-8-1 vs 5-1-2 W1W3Pl | W1W3PlQINFCTTCEF4 | QIN 5-8 vs 1-5 FCT 5-8 vs 5-1 TCE 5-8-1 vs 5-1-2 F4 1-5-8-11 vs 1-2-4-5 |
| 2026-09-13 | Sha Tin | 10 | YIU TUNG HANDICAP | 12-2-5 | 12 NYX GLUCK 10.1%4 FLOW WATER FLOW 8.0%14 FLYING KNIGHT 7.7% | 12-4-14 vs 12-2-5 W1W3Pl | W1W3PlQINFCTTCEF4 | QIN 4-12 vs 2-12 FCT 12-4 vs 12-2 TCE 12-4-14 vs 12-2-5 F4 4-11-12-14 vs 2-4-5-12 |
| 2026-09-16 | Happy Valley | 1 | HOI MEI HANDICAP | 11-12-6 | 11 SPICY SPANGLE 10.7%7 MACANESE MASTER 10.4%9 RUNJEET 9.4% | 7-11-9 vs 11-12-6 W1W3Pl | W1W3PlQINFCTTCEF4 | QIN 7-11 vs 11-12 FCT 11-7 vs 11-12 TCE 11-7-9 vs 11-12-6 F4 6-7-9-11 vs 3-6-11-12 |
| 2026-09-16 | Happy Valley | 2 | LIDO HANDICAP | 3-8-4 | 8 DAN ATTACK 10.3%3 BRIGHT DAY 10.2%11 LOVING VIBES 10.1% | 11-8-3 vs 3-8-4 W1W3Pl | W1W3PlQINFCTTCEF4 | QIN 3-8 vs 3-8 FCT 8-3 vs 3-8 TCE 8-3-11 vs 3-8-4 F4 3-5-8-11 vs 3-4-8-11 |
| 2026-09-16 | Happy Valley | 3 | BIG WAVE BAY HANDICAP | 7-6-10 | 6 ROSEWOOD FLEETFOOT 12.8%10 STAR BROSE 9.4%12 OCEAN IMPACT 9.2% | 6-10-5 vs 7-6-10 W1W3Pl | W1W3PlQINFCTTCEF4 | QIN 6-10 vs 6-7 FCT 6-10 vs 7-6 TCE 6-10-12 vs 7-6-10 F4 6-7-10-12 vs 5-6-7-10 |
| 2026-09-16 | Happy Valley | 4 | KWAI CHUNG TALENTS | 3-11-12 | 3 LIVE WIRE 10.6%11 KWAI CHUNG TALENTS 10.3%4 GIANT LEAP 9.5% | 3-11-4 vs 3-11-12 W1W3Pl | W1W3PlQINFCTTCEF4 | QIN 3-11 vs 3-11 FCT 3-11 vs 3-11 TCE 3-11-4 vs 3-11-12 F4 3-4-5-11 vs 3-4-11-12 |
| 2026-09-16 | Happy Valley | 5 | LIDO HANDICAP | 6-4-7 | 6 YOUNG ARROW 10.6%10 GENIUS BABY 9.7%7 WINNING MONEY 9.6% | 6-11-10 vs 6-4-7 W1W3Pl | W1W3PlQINFCTTCEF4 | QIN 6-10 vs 4-6 FCT 6-10 vs 6-4 TCE 6-10-7 vs 6-4-7 F4 6-7-10-11 vs 4-6-7-11 |
| 2026-09-16 | Happy Valley | 6 | CHUNG HOM KOK HANDICAP | 2-1-10 | 2 POPE CODY 9.9%1 DAZZLING FIT 9.4%9 ALL ROUND WINNER 9.2% | 2-1-10 vs 2-1-10 W1W3Pl | W1W3PlQINFCTTCEF4 | QIN 1-2 vs 1-2 FCT 2-1 vs 2-1 TCE 2-1-9 vs 2-1-10 F4 1-2-9-10 vs 1-2-5-10 |
| 2026-09-16 | Happy Valley | 7 | REPULSE BAY HANDICAP | 4-11-1 | 1 LOVE TOGETHER 10.6%5 BUNTA BABY 9.6%3 HORSEPOWER 9.3% | 1-5-3 vs 4-11-1 W1W3Pl | W1W3PlQINFCTTCEF4 | QIN 1-5 vs 4-11 FCT 1-5 vs 4-11 TCE 1-5-3 vs 4-11-1 F4 1-3-5-10 vs 1-3-4-11 |
| 2026-09-16 | Happy Valley | 8 | SHEK O HANDICAP | 12-3-4 | 12 LE ZONDA 12.4%8 MAX QUE 11.6%6 PACKING ANGEL 10.4% | 12-8-6 vs 12-3-4 W1W3Pl | W1W3PlQINFCTTCEF4 | QIN 8-12 vs 3-12 FCT 12-8 vs 12-3 TCE 12-8-6 vs 12-3-4 F4 1-6-8-12 vs 3-4-9-12 |
- Live primary = hybridV2: odds 0.30 (HV 0.25), form 0.22, pace 0.08, draw 0.10 (HV 0.15), jockeyTrainer 0.11, weight 0.04, oddsMove 0.15; softmax 0.75; demote drifting hot fav
- 2026-09-13 Sha Tin: no odds snapshots — SP (official Win Odds) only; oddsMove neutral
- 2026-09-16 Happy Valley: hybridV2 scored with last pre-race WIN snapshot (odds-snapshots); oddsOpen from morning snap for 走勢盤
- Form/pace from meeting cards (HKJC horse pages / import); runs on/after race date excluded
- Comparison presets: hybridV2, hybrid (V1), v2FormPace, market, favourite, oldSpLean
Study A - 6 and 9 Sep 2026 (ST + HV)
18 races · SP-only odds · form/pace enriched from horse pages.
Preset comparison (SP + enriched form)
Side-by-side hit rates: hybridV2 (live primary) vs hybrid V1 vs v2 vs market-lean vs favourite. Same 18 races.
| Preset | Win — top pick | Win — in top 3 picks | Top pick placed | Any top-3 pick placed |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hybrid V2 (live primary)Live | 7/18 (38.9%) | 11/18 (61.1%) | 8/18 (44.4%) | 15/18 (83.3%) |
| Hybrid V1 (previous) | 7/18 (38.9%) | 12/18 (66.7%) | 8/18 (44.4%) | 16/18 (88.9%) |
| v2 form + pace | 3/18 (16.7%) | 10/18 (55.6%) | 6/18 (33.3%) | 15/18 (83.3%) |
| Market-lean | 7/18 (38.9%) | 12/18 (66.7%) | 9/18 (50.0%) | 16/18 (88.9%) |
| Favourite (1/odds) | 6/18 (33.3%) | 12/18 (66.7%) | 10/18 (55.6%) | 16/18 (88.9%) |
| Old SP-lean | 7/18 (38.9%) | 13/18 (72.2%) | 8/18 (44.4%) | 16/18 (88.9%) |
Pre-race vs SP
Pre-race / morning WIN odds not publicly available for this sample — SP only
market + favourite presets on SP act as a late-market proxy, not a true pre-race test
Summary metrics
Detailed exotic metrics below are for the hybridV2 (live primary) preset when available, else hybrid V1.
Win — top pick
7/18 (38.9%)
Win — in top 3 picks
11/18 (61.1%)
Top pick placed
8/18 (44.4%)
Any top-3 pick placed
15/18 (83.3%)
Favourite won (SP)
6/18 (33.3%)
Quinella top 1
0/18 (0.0%)
Quinella in top 3
3/18 (16.7%)
Forecast top 1
0/18 (0.0%)
Forecast in top 3
2/18 (11.1%)
Tierce top 1
0/18 (0.0%)
Tierce in top 3
0/18 (0.0%)
First 4 top 1
1/18 (5.6%)
First 4 in top 3
2/18 (11.1%)
By meeting
2026-09-06 · Sha Tin
10 races
- Win — top pick: 5/10 (50.0%)
- Win — in top 3 picks: 7/10 (70.0%)
- Top pick placed: 5/10 (50.0%)
- Favourite won (SP): 4/10 (40.0%)
2026-09-09 · Happy Valley
8 races
- Win — top pick: 2/8 (25.0%)
- Win — in top 3 picks: 4/8 (50.0%)
- Top pick placed: 3/8 (37.5%)
- Favourite won (SP): 2/8 (25.0%)
Per-race results
| Date | Venue | R | Race | Actual | Model top 3 | Hybrid vs actual | Hits | QIN / FCT / TCE / F4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-06 | Sha Tin | 1 | GLENEALY HANDICAP | 13-7-2 | 4 SUNNY Q 10.1%11 YEE CHEONG RAIDER 8.4%13 GOOD FORTUNE 7.7% | 4-11-13 vs 13-7-2 W1W3Pl | W1W3PlQINFCTTCEF4 | QIN 4-11 vs 7-13 FCT 4-11 vs 13-7 TCE 4-11-13 vs 13-7-2 F4 4-5-11-13 vs 2-7-10-13 |
| 2026-09-06 | Sha Tin | 2 | DUDDELL HANDICAP | 1-8-11 | 1 LIGHTNESS OF MUSIC 11.5%2 RAPID PHANTOM 11.1%11 LET'S HAVE FUN 9.6% | 1-2-11 vs 1-8-11 W1W3Pl | W1W3PlQINFCTTCEF4 | QIN 1-2 vs 1-8 FCT 1-2 vs 1-8 TCE 1-2-11 vs 1-8-11 F4 1-2-8-11 vs 1-2-8-11 |
| 2026-09-06 | Sha Tin | 3 | THE HKSAR CHIEF EXECUTIVE'S CUP (HANDICAP) | 1-2-6 | 1 KA YING RISING 20.9%3 PATCH OF STARS 17.9%5 LUCKY WITH YOU 16.4% | 1-3-5 vs 1-2-6 W1W3Pl | W1W3PlQINFCTTCEF4 | QIN 1-3 vs 1-2 FCT 1-3 vs 1-2 TCE 1-3-5 vs 1-2-6 F4 1-3-5-6 vs 1-2-4-6 |
| 2026-09-06 | Sha Tin | 4 | HARCOURT HANDICAP | 10-1-7 | 10 GENERAL SMART 8.2%12 GO GO GO 7.8%1 AMAZING DUCK 7.7% | 10-12-3 vs 10-1-7 W1W3Pl | W1W3PlQINFCTTCEF4 | QIN 10-12 vs 1-10 FCT 10-12 vs 10-1 TCE 10-12-1 vs 10-1-7 F4 1-3-10-12 vs 1-7-9-10 |
| 2026-09-06 | Sha Tin | 5 | EDINBURGH HANDICAP | 7-5-12 | 7 LIGHT YEARS GLORY 8.8%4 STUNNING BUNDLE 8.1%5 VIRTUS GLORY 8.0% | 7-4-5 vs 7-5-12 W1W3Pl | W1W3PlQINFCTTCEF4 | QIN 4-7 vs 5-7 FCT 7-4 vs 7-5 TCE 7-4-5 vs 7-5-12 F4 1-4-5-7 vs 5-7-12-13 |
| 2026-09-06 | Sha Tin | 6 | EDINBURGH HANDICAP | 1-3-8 | 2 HAROLD WIN 9.2%3 MATZDEN 8.9%4 KA YING RESILIENCE 8.0% | 2-3-4 vs 1-3-8 W1W3Pl | W1W3PlQINFCTTCEF4 | QIN 2-3 vs 1-3 FCT 2-3 vs 1-3 TCE 2-3-4 vs 1-3-8 F4 1-2-3-4 vs 1-3-8-14 |
| 2026-09-06 | Sha Tin | 7 | ALBERT HANDICAP | 6-7-9 | 3 WINNING OVATION 15.6%4 SIX PACK 13.9%5 MAX QUE 13.5% | 3-4-5 vs 6-7-9 W1W3Pl | W1W3PlQINFCTTCEF4 | QIN 3-4 vs 6-7 FCT 3-4 vs 6-7 TCE 3-4-5 vs 6-7-9 F4 3-4-5-8 vs 5-6-7-9 |
| 2026-09-06 | Sha Tin | 8 | FENWICK HANDICAP | 1-2-8 | 1 JOYFUL JOY 9.4%4 POSITIVE SMILE 8.0%6 GRAND PATCH 7.8% | 1-4-6 vs 1-2-8 W1W3Pl | W1W3PlQINFCTTCEF4 | QIN 1-4 vs 1-2 FCT 1-4 vs 1-2 TCE 1-4-6 vs 1-2-8 F4 1-4-6-8 vs 1-2-6-8 |
| 2026-09-06 | Sha Tin | 9 | COTTON TREE HANDICAP | 5-8-7 | 6 CIRCUIT CHAMPION 12.2%5 BABY SAKURA 11.9%4 AEROINVINCIBLE 10.7% | 6-5-4 vs 5-8-7 W1W3Pl | W1W3PlQINFCTTCEF4 | QIN 5-6 vs 5-8 FCT 6-5 vs 5-8 TCE 6-5-4 vs 5-8-7 F4 1-4-5-6 vs 4-5-7-8 |
| 2026-09-06 | Sha Tin | 10 | BATTERY HANDICAP | 2-1-10 | 12 MASTER PAYMENT 10.3%8 SUPER STRONG KID 8.9%6 GOLD PATCH 8.6% | 12-8-6 vs 2-1-10 W1W3Pl | W1W3PlQINFCTTCEF4 | QIN 8-12 vs 1-2 FCT 12-8 vs 2-1 TCE 12-8-6 vs 2-1-10 F4 1-6-8-12 vs 1-2-7-10 |
| 2026-09-09 | Happy Valley | 1 | ADMIRALTY HANDICAP | 12-11-5 | 10 TELECOM POWER 10.4%6 ALWAYS FLUKE 9.4%7 NOBLE FANS 8.8% | 10-6-12 vs 12-11-5 W1W3Pl | W1W3PlQINFCTTCEF4 | QIN 6-10 vs 11-12 FCT 10-6 vs 12-11 TCE 10-6-7 vs 12-11-5 F4 6-7-10-12 vs 5-10-11-12 |
| 2026-09-09 | Happy Valley | 2 | KWUN TONG HANDICAP | 1-7-10 | 9 PRECISION HOPE 13.4%7 FIREFOOT 12.1%4 CASA ROCHESTER 10.6% | 9-7-4 vs 1-7-10 W1W3Pl | W1W3PlQINFCTTCEF4 | QIN 7-9 vs 1-7 FCT 9-7 vs 1-7 TCE 9-7-4 vs 1-7-10 F4 1-4-7-9 vs 1-7-9-10 |
| 2026-09-09 | Happy Valley | 3 | ADMIRALTY HANDICAP | 6-1-11 | 11 ORIENTAL SURPRISE 12.6%4 MACANESE MASTER 11.4%1 LAKESHORE HERO 11.1% | 11-1-4 vs 6-1-11 W1W3Pl | W1W3PlQINFCTTCEF4 | QIN 4-11 vs 1-6 FCT 11-4 vs 6-1 TCE 11-4-1 vs 6-1-11 F4 1-3-4-11 vs 1-4-6-11 |
| 2026-09-09 | Happy Valley | 4 | KWUN TONG HANDICAP | 10-4-6 | 2 SKY DEEP 11.1%10 AMAZING GAZE 10.3%4 SUNDAY'S SERENADE 10.0% | 2-10-4 vs 10-4-6 W1W3Pl | W1W3PlQINFCTTCEF4 | QIN 2-10 vs 4-10 FCT 2-10 vs 10-4 TCE 2-10-4 vs 10-4-6 F4 1-2-4-10 vs 2-4-6-10 |
| 2026-09-09 | Happy Valley | 5 | CENTRAL HANDICAP | 10-9-3 | 5 VIOLET STAR 10.0%4 DO YOUR PART 9.8%3 CHINA WIN 9.2% | 4-5-3 vs 10-9-3 W1W3Pl | W1W3PlQINFCTTCEF4 | QIN 4-5 vs 9-10 FCT 5-4 vs 10-9 TCE 5-4-3 vs 10-9-3 F4 3-4-5-6 vs 3-5-9-10 |
| 2026-09-09 | Happy Valley | 6 | KOWLOON TONG HANDICAP | 6-3-5 | 6 JUMBO BLESSING 10.2%2 BEAUTY SHOW 9.8%8 HARMONY FIRE 9.2% | 6-2-5 vs 6-3-5 W1W3Pl | W1W3PlQINFCTTCEF4 | QIN 2-6 vs 3-6 FCT 6-2 vs 6-3 TCE 6-2-8 vs 6-3-5 F4 2-5-6-8 vs 3-5-6-8 |
| 2026-09-09 | Happy Valley | 7 | TSIM SHA TSUI HANDICAP | 1-2-12 | 1 ROBOT LUCKY STAR 10.8%12 FORZA LEADER 9.6%9 WARRIORS DREAM 9.1% | 1-12-9 vs 1-2-12 W1W3Pl | W1W3PlQINFCTTCEF4 | QIN 1-12 vs 1-2 FCT 1-12 vs 1-2 TCE 1-12-9 vs 1-2-12 F4 1-4-9-12 vs 1-2-4-12 |
| 2026-09-09 | Happy Valley | 8 | WAN CHAI HANDICAP | 11-4-1 | 10 TANG HEART 9.5%11 ACE CHAMPION 9.3%3 MOTOR 9.3% | 3-11-10 vs 11-4-1 W1W3Pl | W1W3PlQINFCTTCEF4 | QIN 10-11 vs 4-11 FCT 10-11 vs 11-4 TCE 10-11-3 vs 11-4-1 F4 3-6-10-11 vs 1-4-8-11 |
- Live primary = hybridV2: odds 0.30 (HV 0.25), form 0.22, pace 0.08, draw 0.10 (HV 0.15), jockeyTrainer 0.11, weight 0.04, oddsMove 0.15; softmax 0.75; demote drifting hot fav
- Comparison presets: hybridV2, hybrid (V1), v2FormPace, market, favourite (1/odds), oldSpLean (form stripped)
- 近績 / 走位 enriched from HKJC horse pages for 2026-09-06 & 2026-09-09
- Odds = official Win Odds from results (SP). 賽前盤 vs SP：本樣本無法取得賽前／早盤公開賠率；僅能用 SP 回測
- Odds movement (走勢盤) neutral for this historical study (SP-only) — demotion rarely fires