Sunday, 27 September 2026 · Sha Tin · Good

R1 TROPICBIRD HANDICAP

12:45 · 1200m · Class 5 · AWT

Combo predictions

Tabs: General (Hybrid V2 top 6), full Hybrid V2 detail, and Hybrid V1 (previous) for A/B comparison.

Top 6 overview

Compact ranking from Hybrid V2 (live primary) — horse, draw, win %, odds.

Rk	#	Horse	Draw	Win	Odds
1	6	ONLY U	6	11.2%	2.8
2	1	ROBOT KNIGHT	3	9.0%	5.3
3	2	SO MY FOLKS	9	8.6%	7.7
4	10	VON BAER	12	8.5%	18.0
5	9	GIMME FIVE	1	8.4%	7.1
6	3	DAILY TROPHY	2	8.4%	9.1

16
ONLY U
Draw 6 · 2.8
11.2%
21
ROBOT KNIGHT
Draw 3 · 5.3
9.0%
32
SO MY FOLKS
Draw 9 · 7.7
8.6%
410
VON BAER
Draw 12 · 18.0
8.5%
59
GIMME FIVE
Draw 1 · 7.1
8.4%
63
DAILY TROPHY
Draw 2 · 9.1
8.4%

Full field analysis

Runner cards ranked by Hybrid V2 (live primary).

ONLY U

Rank #1

Draw 6 · 126lb · Z Purton · J Cummings · R30 · 2.8

11.2%

Win

32.3%

Place

Recent: 4-6-10-2-4-2 · 4/14(12 13 4) · 6/14(12 11 12 6) · 10/14(11 8 10) · 2/14(4 4 2) · 4/14(10 8 4) · 2/14(10 11 2) · 92d since last · Gear PC1

Running: 12 13 4 · Odds move: 2.8→2.8

Form69

Pace79

Draw81

J/T85

Weight53

Odds75

Move50

Strengths

+Strong finishing pattern (走位)
+Helpful barrier for this trip
+Solid connections (Z Purton / J Cummings)
+Market respects this runner
+Recent closer / late dash

Risks

–Freshness query after a break

ROBOT KNIGHT

Rank #2

Draw 3 · 135lb · P N Wong · K L Man · R39 · 5.3

9.0%

Win

26.8%

Place

Recent: 10-8-1-3-5-5 · 10/14(3 5 10) · 8/14(2 3 8) · 1/14(3 2 1) · 3/14(2 2 3) · 5/14(5 5 5) · 5/14(4 3 5) · 85d since last · Gear B/TT

Running: 3 5 10 · Odds move: 5.3→5.3

Form62

Pace28

Draw96

J/T58

Weight0

Odds51

Move50

Strengths

+Helpful barrier for this trip

Risks

–Often fades or stuck wide on sectionals
–Top weight or heavy relative impost
–Freshness query after a break

SO MY FOLKS

Rank #3

Draw 9 · 133lb · J Orman · C S Shum · R37 · 7.7

8.6%

Win

25.7%

Place

Recent: 2-13-6-4-6-7 · 2/14(4 3 2) · 13/14(7 7 13) · 6/14(2 3 2 6) · 4/14(1 1 4) · 6/14(13 14 6) · 7/14(3 3 7) · 21d since last · Gear TT

Running: 4 3 2 · Odds move: 7.7→7.7

Form64

Pace43

Draw66

J/T62

Weight12

Odds41

Move50

Strengths

+Competitive on balance of factors

Risks

–Top weight or heavy relative impost

VON BAER

Rank #4

Draw 12 · 123lb · M F Poon · J Richards · R27 · 18.0

8.5%

Win

25.5%

Place

Recent: 2-7-10-6-5-11 · 2/14(12 10 2) · 7/14(8 7 7) · 10/14(4 5 10) · 6/14(9 8 6) · 5/14(9 8 5) · 11/14(3 3 4 11) · 18d since last · Gear TT

Running: 12 10 2 · Odds move: 18.0→18.0

Form69

Pace68

Draw51

J/T67

Weight71

Odds25

Move50

Strengths

+Carries a competitive weight
+Recent closer / late dash

Risks

–No major red flags on the model

GIMME FIVE

Rank #5

Draw 1 · 123lb · H Y Yuen · Y S Tsui · R27 · 7.1

8.4%

Win

25.2%

Place

Recent: 10-12-7-13-12-11 · 10/14(11 9 10) · 12/14(6 9 12) · 7/14(2 2 7) · 13/14(5 9 13) · 12/14(2 6 12) · 11/14(2 1 11) · 21d since last · Gear B

Running: 11 9 10 · Odds move: 7.1→7.1

Form32

Pace31

Draw100

J/T64

Weight71

Odds43

Move50

Strengths

+Helpful barrier for this trip
+Carries a competitive weight
+Recent closer / late dash

Risks

–Inconsistent or modest recent form
–Often fades or stuck wide on sectionals

DAILY TROPHY

Rank #6

Draw 2 · 132lb · L Ferraris · C Fownes · R36 · 9.1

8.4%

Win

25.2%

Place

Recent: 11-4-14-12-7-8 · 11/14(3 3 2 11) · 4/14(12 10 4) · 14/14(14 14 13 14) · 12/14(2 3 4 12) · 7/14(9 9 7 7) · 8/14(6 8 9 8) · 77d since last · Gear B2/TT

Running: 3 3 2 11 · Odds move: 9.1→9.1

Form39

Pace41

Draw100

J/T78

Weight18

Odds37

Move50

Strengths

+Helpful barrier for this trip
+Solid connections (L Ferraris / C Fownes)

Risks

–Top weight or heavy relative impost
–Freshness query after a break

HAPPY ACTION

Rank #7

Draw 7 · 126lb · A Atzeni · M Newnham · R30 · 13.0

8.2%

Win

24.8%

Place

Recent: 10-9-9-8-3-12 · 10/14(9 10 10) · 9/14(9 8 9) · 9/14(6 6 6 9) · 8/14(12 12 8) · 3/14(7 7 3) · 12/14(11 13 12) · 81d since last · Gear B/TT

Running: 9 10 10 · Odds move: 13.0→13.0

Form45

Pace53

Draw76

J/T73

Weight53

Odds30

Move50

Strengths

+Helpful barrier for this trip
+Recent closer / late dash

Risks

–Freshness query after a break

MR GOOD VIBES

Rank #8

Draw 4 · 125lb · C Y Ho · W Y So · R29 · 32.0

8.1%

Win

24.5%

Place

Recent: 9-2-14-12-11-1 · 9/14(9 8 9) · 2/14(5 5 2) · 14/14(14 14 14 14) · 12/14(10 10 12) · 11/14(6 7 11) · 1/14(4 5 3 1) · 18d since last · Gear V

Running: 9 8 9 · Odds move: 32.0→32.0

Form47

Pace56

Draw91

J/T78

Weight59

Odds18

Move50

Strengths

+Helpful barrier for this trip
+Solid connections (C Y Ho / W Y So)
+Recent closer / late dash

Risks

–Long odds — needs a clear improvement

RISING ELITE

Rank #9

Draw 5 · 132lb · K C Leung · W K Mo · R36 · 22.0

7.9%

Win

23.9%

Place

Recent: 12-5-5-5-14-7 · 12/14(9 12 12) · 5/14(6 6 5) · 5/14(4 6 5) · 5/14(6 6 5) · 14/14(9 10 14 14) · 7/14(8 7 7) · 21d since last · Gear B/TT

Running: 9 12 12 · Odds move: 22.0→22.0

Form50

Pace48

Draw86

J/T64

Weight18

Odds22

Move50

Strengths

+Helpful barrier for this trip
+Recent closer / late dash

Risks

–Top weight or heavy relative impost

TURF PHOENIX

Rank #10

Draw 10 · 118lb · M L Yeung · K H Ting · R22 · 35.0

7.5%

Win

22.7%

Place

Recent: 10-12-3-11-8-11 · 10/14(4 3 10) · 12/14(6 9 12) · 3/14(4 5 3) · 11/14(8 9 11) · 8/14(4 5 8) · 11/14(4 7 8 11) · 18d since last · Gear B2/TT

Running: 4 3 10 · Odds move: 35.0→35.0

Form43

Pace32

Draw61

J/T58

Weight100

Odds17

Move50

Strengths

+Carries a competitive weight

Risks

–Often fades or stuck wide on sectionals
–Long odds — needs a clear improvement

HANDSOME BLOND

Rank #11

Draw 8 · 122lb · K Teetan · C H Yip · R26 · 44.0

7.5%

Win

22.7%

Place

Recent: 9-10-12-12-12-7 · 9/14(5 6 9) · 10/14(12 11 10) · 12/14(4 4 8 12) · 12/14(8 10 12) · 12/14(13 12 12) · 7/14(10 10 7) · 106d since last · Gear E/TT2

Running: 5 6 9 · Odds move: 44.0→44.0

Form32

Pace38

Draw71

J/T80

Weight76

Odds14

Move50

Strengths

+Helpful barrier for this trip
+Solid connections (K Teetan / C H Yip)
+Carries a competitive weight

Risks

–Inconsistent or modest recent form
–Long odds — needs a clear improvement
–Freshness query after a break

WAVE GARDEN

Rank #12

Draw 11 · 124lb · R Kingscote · C W Chang · R28 · 34.0

6.8%

Win

20.9%

Place

Recent: 14-13-9-11-9-8 · 14/14(8 7 9 14) · 13/14(7 4 6 13) · 9/14(5 5 4 9) · 11/14(2 2 2 11) · 9/14(4 6 6 9) · 8/14(2 2 2 8) · 88d since last · Gear CP-/XB/TT-

Running: 8 7 9 14 · Odds move: 34.0→34.0

Form21

Pace23

Draw56

J/T63

Weight65

Odds17

Move50

Strengths

+Recent closer / late dash

Risks

–Inconsistent or modest recent form
–Often fades or stuck wide on sectionals
–Long odds — needs a clear improvement
–Freshness query after a break