Sunday, 27 September 2026 · Sha Tin · Good

R11 KESTREL HANDICAP

18:20 · 1400m · Class 3 · Turf · Course C+3

Combo predictions

Tabs: General (Hybrid V2 top 6), full Hybrid V2 detail, and Hybrid V1 (previous) for A/B comparison.

Top 6 overview

Compact ranking from Hybrid V2 (live primary) — horse, draw, win %, odds.

Rk	#	Horse	Draw	Win	Odds
1	6	CIRCUIT CHAMPION	3	9.2%	3.3
2	3	AEROINVINCIBLE	7	7.9%	6.1
3	10	FORZA TORO	12	7.8%	9.5
4	8	ENDEARED	8	7.6%	12.0
5	7	COMPLETE UNKNOWN	14	7.5%	12.0
6	2	THE RED HARE	1	7.2%	8.9

16
CIRCUIT CHAMPION
Draw 3 · 3.3
9.2%
23
AEROINVINCIBLE
Draw 7 · 6.1
7.9%
310
FORZA TORO
Draw 12 · 9.5
7.8%
48
ENDEARED
Draw 8 · 12.0
7.6%
57
COMPLETE UNKNOWN
Draw 14 · 12.0
7.5%
62
THE RED HARE
Draw 1 · 8.9
7.2%

Full field analysis

Runner cards ranked by Hybrid V2 (live primary).

CIRCUIT CHAMPION

Rank #1

Draw 3 · 129lb · Z Purton · C S Shum · R73 · 3.3

9.2%

Win

27.0%

Place

Recent: 5-3-3-1-1-2 · 5/14(6 7 6 5) · 3/14(12 10 11 3) · 3/14(10 10 9 3) · 1/14(10 9 1) · 1/14(3 2 1) · 2/14(7 5 2) · 21d since last · Gear CP/TT

Running: 6 7 6 5 · Odds move: 3.3→3.3

Form87

Pace83

Draw90

J/T86

Weight35

Odds68

Move50

Strengths

+Strong recent form
+Strong finishing pattern (走位)
+Helpful barrier for this trip
+Solid connections (Z Purton / C S Shum)
+Market respects this runner

Risks

–No major red flags on the model

AEROINVINCIBLE

Rank #2

Draw 7 · 131lb · H Y Yuen · P C Ng · R75 · 6.1

7.9%

Win

23.5%

Place

Recent: 4-2-1-4-1-1 · 4/14(1 1 1 4) · 2/14(3 2 2 2) · 1/14(3 3 3 1) · 4/14(2 1 1 4) · 1/14(3 2 2 1) · 1/14(1 1 1 1) · 21d since last · Gear H/TT

Running: 1 1 1 4 · Odds move: 6.1→6.1

Form90

Pace52

Draw78

J/T73

Weight24

Odds47

Move50

Strengths

+Strong recent form
+Helpful barrier for this trip

Risks

–Top weight or heavy relative impost

FORZA TORO

Rank #3

Draw 12 · 122lb · L Ferraris · C Fownes · R66 · 9.5

7.8%

Win

23.3%

Place

Recent: 1-5-2-6-3-3 · 1/14(1 1 1 1) · 5/14(13 9 9 5) · 2/14(14 13 9 2) · 6/14(8 3 3 6) · 3/14(3 3 3 3) · 3/14(14 13 12 3) · 81d since last · Gear XB

Running: 1 1 1 1 · Odds move: 9.5→9.5

Form87

Pace74

Draw62

J/T78

Weight76

Odds36

Move50

Strengths

+Strong recent form
+Strong finishing pattern (走位)
+Solid connections (L Ferraris / C Fownes)
+Carries a competitive weight
+Comes off a win

Risks

–Freshness query after a break

ENDEARED

Rank #4

Draw 8 · 127lb · A Atzeni · J Size · R71 · 12.0

7.6%

Win

22.7%

Place

Recent: 2-9-3-2-3-1 · 2/14(6 5 6 2) · 9/14(9 9 12 9) · 3/14(5 6 6 3) · 2/14(9 9 9 2) · 3/14(7 7 6 3) · 1/14(13 14 13 1) · 85d since last · Gear XB

Running: 6 5 6 2 · Odds move: 12.0→12.0

Form82

Pace72

Draw74

J/T81

Weight47

Odds32

Move50

Strengths

+Strong recent form
+Strong finishing pattern (走位)
+Helpful barrier for this trip
+Solid connections (A Atzeni / J Size)
+Recent closer / late dash

Risks

–Freshness query after a break

COMPLETE UNKNOWN

Rank #5

Draw 14 · 127lb · K Teetan · W K Mo · R71 · 12.0

7.5%

Win

22.5%

Place

Recent: 1-3-3-5-5-8 · 1/14(4 3 3 1) · 3/14(7 7 6 3) · 3/14(3 3 1 3) · 5/14(6 8 11 5) · 5/14(6 5 4 5) · 8/14(3 5 8) · 77d since last · Gear CP/TT

Running: 4 3 3 1 · Odds move: 12.0→12.0

Form90

Pace70

Draw56

J/T76

Weight47

Odds32

Move50

Strengths

+Strong recent form
+Strong finishing pattern (走位)
+Solid connections (K Teetan / W K Mo)
+Comes off a win

Risks

–Freshness query after a break

THE RED HARE

Rank #6

Draw 1 · 133lb · M F Poon · F C Lor · R77 · 8.9

7.2%

Win

21.7%

Place

Recent: 6-7-3-1-11-3 · 6/14(5 4 5 6) · 7/14(3 4 5 7) · 3/14(3 4 4 3) · 1/14(3 3 3 1) · 11/14(9 11 11 11) · 3/14(6 7 4 3) · 21d since last · Gear H/P/TT

Running: 5 4 5 6 · Odds move: 8.9→8.9

Form70

Pace44

Draw96

J/T69

Weight12

Odds38

Move50

Strengths

+Strong recent form
+Helpful barrier for this trip

Risks

–Top weight or heavy relative impost

DRAGON JOY

Rank #7

Draw 5 · 118lb · M Chadwick · P F Yiu · R62 · 16.0

7.1%

Win

21.3%

Place

Recent: 6-4-4-13-7-14 · 6/14(5 8 7 6) · 4/14(5 4 4 4) · 4/14(3 4 3 4) · 13/14(3 5 8 13) · 7/14(4 5 5 7) · 14/14(4 5 5 14) · 287d since last · Gear TT

Running: 5 8 7 6 · Odds move: 16.0→16.0

Form64

Pace44

Draw84

J/T78

Weight100

Odds27

Move50

Strengths

+Helpful barrier for this trip
+Solid connections (M Chadwick / P F Yiu)
+Carries a competitive weight

Risks

–Freshness query after a break

LUCKY SAM GOR

Rank #8

Draw 9 · 135lb · C L Chau · M Newnham · R79 · 17.0

7.1%

Win

21.3%

Place

Recent: 7-2-1-7-5-4 · 7/14(11 8 8 7) · 2/14(7 6 4 2) · 1/14(7 8 8 1) · 7/14(10 10 11 7) · 5/14(8 8 6 5) · 4/14(7 7 7 4) · 21d since last · Gear XB

Running: 11 8 8 7 · Odds move: 17.0→17.0

Form78

Pace80

Draw71

J/T72

Weight0

Odds26

Move50

Strengths

+Strong recent form
+Strong finishing pattern (走位)
+Helpful barrier for this trip
+Recent closer / late dash

Risks

–Top weight or heavy relative impost

THUNDER BLAZE

Rank #9

Draw 11 · 130lb · J Orman · D J Hall · R74 · 25.0

6.8%

Win

20.5%

Place

Recent: 1-7-5 · 1/14(5 4 4 1) · 7/14(5 5 6 7) · 5/14(9 9 5) · 196d since last · Gear XB

Running: 5 4 4 1 · Odds move: 25.0→25.0

Form81

Pace66

Draw65

J/T58

Weight29

Odds20

Move50

Strengths

+Strong recent form
+Comes off a win
+Recent closer / late dash

Risks

–Top weight or heavy relative impost
–Long odds — needs a clear improvement
–Freshness query after a break

PRIME SUCCESS

Rank #10

Draw 4 · 122lb · R Kingscote · D J Whyte · R66 · 33.0

6.7%

Win

20.1%

Place

Recent: 8 · 8/14(12 13 11 8) · 98d since last · Gear XB/B1

Running: 12 13 11 8 · Odds move: 33.0→33.0

Form50

Pace74

Draw87

J/T74

Weight76

Odds17

Move50

Strengths

+Strong finishing pattern (走位)
+Helpful barrier for this trip
+Carries a competitive weight
+Recent closer / late dash

Risks

–Long odds — needs a clear improvement
–Freshness query after a break

VULCANUS

Rank #11

Draw 6 · 121lb · H T Mo · Y S Tsui · R65 · 34.0

6.6%

Win

19.8%

Place

Recent: 11-8-1-7-4-10 · 11/14(7 10 11) · 8/14(8 6 8) · 1/14(5 5 1) · 7/14(12 11 7) · 4/14(6 4 4) · 10/14(12 12 10) · 85d since last · Gear B

Running: 7 10 11 · Odds move: 34.0→34.0

Form56

Pace57

Draw81

J/T68

Weight82

Odds17

Move50

Strengths

+Helpful barrier for this trip
+Carries a competitive weight

Risks

–Long odds — needs a clear improvement
–Freshness query after a break

THE BOOM BOX

Rank #12

Draw 10 · 121lb · C Y Ho · W Y So · R65 · 23.0

6.3%

Win

19.2%

Place

Recent: 14-8-6-8-8-8 · 14/14(13 14 14) · 8/14(5 5 6 8 8) · 6/14(12 13 13 13 6) · 8/14(14 14 13 8) · 8/14(10 10 10 8) · 8/14(9 8 9 8) · 14d since last · Gear CP

Running: 13 14 14 · Odds move: 23.0→23.0

Form39

Pace58

Draw68

J/T78

Weight82

Odds21

Move50

Strengths

+Solid connections (C Y Ho / W Y So)
+Carries a competitive weight
+Recent closer / late dash
+Racing fit (recently raced)

Risks

–No major red flags on the model

BEAUTY CRESCENT

Rank #13

Draw 13 · 130lb · Y L Chung · A S Cruz · R74 · 12.0

6.1%

Win

18.6%

Place

Recent: 3-14-14-14-14-9 · 3/14(3 2 2 3) · 14/14(13 12 14 14) · 14/14(12 11 14 14) · 14/14(7 9 12 14) · 14/14(8 9 8 14) · 9/14(5 6 6 9) · 21d since last · Gear B/TT

Running: 3 2 2 3 · Odds move: 12.0→12.0

Form35

Pace44

Draw59

J/T71

Weight29

Odds32

Move50

Strengths

+Competitive on balance of factors

Risks

–Top weight or heavy relative impost

NORTHERN FIRE BALL

Rank #14

Draw 2 · 123lb · E C W Wong · C H Yip · R67 · 36.0

6.1%

Win

18.5%

Place

Recent: 10-11-6-1-12-4 · 10/14(1 1 10) · 11/14(1 1 11) · 6/14(1 1 6) · 1/14(1 1 1) · 12/14(2 4 12) · 4/14(1 1 4) · 18d since last · Gear TT

Running: 1 1 10 · Odds move: 36.0→36.0

Form47

Pace10

Draw93

J/T62

Weight71

Odds16

Move50

Strengths

+Helpful barrier for this trip
+Carries a competitive weight

Risks

–Often fades or stuck wide on sectionals
–Long odds — needs a clear improvement