HK

HKJC Race Analysis

Market · Form · Pace · Draw · Combos

← Sha Tin Meeting - 2026-10-11

Sunday, 11 October 2026 · Sha Tin · Good

R7 NAM SANG WAI HANDICAP

15:35 · 1400m · Class 4 · Turf · Course C

Combo predictions

Tabs: General (Hybrid V2 top 6), full Hybrid V2 detail, and Hybrid V1 (previous) for A/B comparison.

Top 6 overview

Compact ranking from Hybrid V2 (live primary) — horse, draw, win %, odds.

  • 16

    CAVA PIONEER

    Draw 7 · 5.4

    8.5%
  • 214

    GOOD LUCK BABE

    Draw 10 · 6.4

    8.3%
  • 35

    STORM MIRROR

    Draw 5 · 8.3

    8.2%
  • 410

    TIN FOOK

    Draw 1 · 7.2

    8.0%
  • 53

    ABSOLUTE AWAKENED

    Draw 2 · 4.8

    7.8%
  • 69

    STUNNING BUNDLE

    Draw 4 · 11.0

    6.9%

Full field analysis

Runner cards ranked by Hybrid V2 (live primary).

6

CAVA PIONEER

Rank #1

Draw 7 · 129lb · Z Purton · C H Yip · R52 · 5.4

8.5%

Win

25.2%

Place

Recent: 7 · 7/14(12 12 7) · 35d since last

Running: 12 12 7 · Odds move: 8.2→5.4

Form57
Pace79
Draw78
J/T84
Weight50
Odds51
Move69

Strengths

  • +Strong finishing pattern (走位)
  • +Helpful barrier for this trip
  • +Solid connections (Z Purton / C H Yip)
  • +Shortening in the market (走勢盤)
  • +Recent closer / late dash

Risks

  • –No major red flags on the model
14

GOOD LUCK BABE

Rank #2

Draw 10 · 123lb · C L Chau · A S Cruz · R46 · 6.4

8.3%

Win

24.5%

Place

Recent: 4-3-4-12-10-12 · 4/14(4 4 4) · 3/14(4 5 3) · 4/14(5 5 5 4) · 12/14(6 4 3 12) · 10/14(12 12 10) · 12/14(1 1 1 12) · 18d since last · Gear B/TT

Running: 4 4 4 · Odds move: 6.8→6.4

Form72
Pace52
Draw68
J/T77
Weight100
Odds46
Move53

Strengths

  • +Strong recent form
  • +Solid connections (C L Chau / A S Cruz)
  • +Carries a competitive weight

Risks

  • –No major red flags on the model
5

STORM MIRROR

Rank #3

Draw 5 · 130lb · C Y Ho · P C Ng · R53 · 8.3

8.2%

Win

24.4%

Place

Recent: 11-2-3-7 · 11/14(9 11 11 11) · 2/14(2 2 2) · 3/14(7 3 3) · 7/14(11 12 7) · 28d since last

Running: 9 11 11 11 · Odds move: 13.0→8.3

Form65
Pace57
Draw84
J/T85
Weight42
Odds39
Move70

Strengths

  • +Helpful barrier for this trip
  • +Solid connections (C Y Ho / P C Ng)
  • +Shortening in the market (走勢盤)
  • +Recent closer / late dash

Risks

  • –No major red flags on the model
10

TIN FOOK

Rank #4

Draw 1 · 129lb · B Avdulla · P F Yiu · R52 · 7.2

8.0%

Win

23.8%

Place

Recent: 12-5-4-11-3-12 · 12/14(4 4 12) · 5/14(3 3 5 5) · 4/14(3 4 4) · 11/14(1 1 2 11) · 3/14(1 1 3) · 12/14(5 4 3 12) · 99d since last · Gear CP-

Running: 4 4 12 · Odds move: 16.0→7.2

Form52
Pace29
Draw96
J/T77
Weight50
Odds43
Move80

Strengths

  • +Helpful barrier for this trip
  • +Solid connections (B Avdulla / P F Yiu)
  • +Shortening in the market (走勢盤)

Risks

  • –Often fades or stuck wide on sectionals
  • –Freshness query after a break
3

ABSOLUTE AWAKENED

Rank #5

Draw 2 · 130lb · K C Leung · D A Hayes · R53 · 4.8

7.8%

Win

23.3%

Place

Recent: 1-7-6-7-10-5 · 1/14(11 9 6 1) · 7/14(8 7 8 7) · 6/14(9 8 5 6) · 7/14(6 8 9 7) · 10/14(10 11 11 10) · 5/14(2 2 2 5) · 28d since last

Running: 11 9 6 1 · Odds move: 2.5→4.8

Form71
Pace70
Draw93
J/T74
Weight42
Odds55
Move0

Strengths

  • +Strong recent form
  • +Strong finishing pattern (走位)
  • +Helpful barrier for this trip
  • +Market respects this runner
  • +Comes off a win
  • +Recent closer / late dash

Risks

  • –Drifting in the market
9

STUNNING BUNDLE

Rank #6

Draw 4 · 129lb · A Atzeni · J Size · R52 · 11.0

6.9%

Win

20.9%

Place

Recent: 12-3 · 12/14(8 10 12) · 3/14(3 4 3) · 35d since last · Gear B1

Running: 8 10 12 · Odds move: 8.5→11.0

Form45
Pace41
Draw87
J/T81
Weight50
Odds33
Move34

Strengths

  • +Helpful barrier for this trip
  • +Solid connections (A Atzeni / J Size)
  • +Recent closer / late dash

Risks

  • –Drifting in the market
8

M M CONCORD

Rank #7

Draw 13 · 129lb · M Chadwick · W K Mo · R52 · 20.0

6.8%

Win

20.4%

Place

Recent: 9-6-4-12-5-8 · 9/14(3 7 9) · 6/14(1 1 2 6) · 4/14(3 2 3 4) · 12/14(1 1 2 12) · 5/14(1 1 1 5) · 8/14(5 5 6 8) · 14d since last · Gear B/TT

Running: 3 7 9 · Odds move: 27.0→20.0

Form55
Pace20
Draw59
J/T70
Weight50
Odds23
Move64

Strengths

  • +Racing fit (recently raced)

Risks

  • –Often fades or stuck wide on sectionals
4

ONE MORE

Rank #8

Draw 3 · 130lb · H T Mo · Y S Tsui · R53 · 15.0

6.7%

Win

20.4%

Place

Recent: 11-9-9-6-5-3 · 11/14(1 2 11) · 9/14(3 2 2 9) · 9/14(2 2 9) · 6/14(1 1 1 6) · 5/14(1 1 1 5) · 3/14(1 1 1 3) · 133d since last · Gear SR/TT-

Running: 1 2 11 · Odds move: 19.0→15.0

Form43
Pace8
Draw90
J/T68
Weight42
Odds28
Move62

Strengths

  • +Helpful barrier for this trip

Risks

  • –Often fades or stuck wide on sectionals
  • –Freshness query after a break
7

GALLANT ASCEND

Rank #9

Draw 11 · 129lb · J Orman · D J Hall · R52 · 24.0

6.7%

Win

20.2%

Place

Recent: — · Gear TT1

Odds move: 35.0→24.0

Form45
Pace50
Draw65
J/T58
Weight50
Odds21
Move67

Strengths

  • +Shortening in the market (走勢盤)

Risks

  • –No major red flags on the model
1

HAPPY TERCENTENARY

Rank #10

Draw 12 · 135lb · A Badel · J Cummings · R58 · 11.0

6.6%

Win

20.1%

Place

Recent: 8-10-12-13 · 8/14(12 12 11 8) · 10/14(8 9 8 10) · 12/14(12 12 12 12) · 13/14(12 9 9 13) · 88d since last · Gear XB-/TT2

Running: 12 12 11 8 · Odds move: 11.0→11.0

Form36
Pace56
Draw62
J/T76
Weight0
Odds33
Move50

Strengths

  • +Solid connections (A Badel / J Cummings)
  • +Recent closer / late dash

Risks

  • –Top weight or heavy relative impost
  • –Freshness query after a break
2

LUNAR DASH

Rank #11

Draw 14 · 134lb · K Teetan · B Crawford · R57 · 33.0

6.4%

Win

19.5%

Place

Recent: 11-3-11-7-13-7 · 11/14(5 7 11) · 3/14(6 5 3) · 11/14(13 10 12 11) · 7/14(13 10 7) · 13/14(2 2 3 13) · 7/14(1 2 7) · 28d since last · Gear B-/XB-/CP2/TT1

Running: 5 7 11 · Odds move: 32.0→33.0

Form48
Pace53
Draw56
J/T82
Weight8
Odds17
Move48

Strengths

  • +Solid connections (K Teetan / B Crawford)

Risks

  • –Top weight or heavy relative impost
  • –Long odds — needs a clear improvement
11

DAILY FUN

Rank #12

Draw 9 · 126lb · L Ferraris · F C Lor · R49 · 40.0

6.4%

Win

19.5%

Place

Recent: 8-10 · 8/14(5 3 8) · 10/14(9 9 10) · 14d since last · Gear H/XB/TT

Running: 5 3 8 · Odds move: 34.0→40.0

Form45
Pace42
Draw71
J/T73
Weight75
Odds15
Move40

Strengths

  • +Helpful barrier for this trip
  • +Carries a competitive weight
  • +Racing fit (recently raced)

Risks

  • –Long odds — needs a clear improvement
13

SOO KOO

Rank #13

Draw 6 · 124lb · M L Yeung · K W Lui · R47 · 70.0

6.3%

Win

19.1%

Place

Recent: 11-11-11 · 11/14(6 11 11) · 11/14(10 11 11) · 11/14(12 12 11) · 14d since last · Gear B

Running: 6 11 11 · Odds move: 76.0→70.0

Form29
Pace40
Draw81
J/T72
Weight92
Odds11
Move54

Strengths

  • +Helpful barrier for this trip
  • +Carries a competitive weight
  • +Racing fit (recently raced)

Risks

  • –Inconsistent or modest recent form
  • –Long odds — needs a clear improvement
12

FLUORESCENCE

Rank #14

Draw 8 · 124lb · E C W Wong · K L Man · R47 · 65.0

6.2%

Win

18.8%

Place

Recent: 10-9-11-7-14-12 · 10/14(14 14 14 13 10) · 9/14(3 3 4 3 9) · 11/14(8 7 8 8 11) · 7/14(4 4 4 6 7) · 14/14(14 14 14 14) · 12/14(11 12 12 12) · 10d since last · Gear B-/TT-

Running: 14 14 14 13 10 · Odds move: 58.0→65.0

Form37
Pace42
Draw74
J/T60
Weight92
Odds11
Move43

Strengths

  • +Helpful barrier for this trip
  • +Carries a competitive weight
  • +Recent closer / late dash
  • +Racing fit (recently raced)

Risks

  • –Long odds — needs a clear improvement
  • –Distance change from last start